Börsipäev 7. mai - tööjõuraport tugev
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-USA töökohtade arvu kasv oli teist kuud järjest väga kiire. Aprillis lisandus 288 000 uut töökohta, märtsi ja aprilli näitajad on nelja aasta tugevaimad. Töötuse määr langes 5,6 protsendile, prognoositi aga selle jäämist samale ehk 5,7 protsendi tasemele.
-USA futuurid reageerisid heale tööjõuraportile langusega. Nasdaqi futuurid on 5,5 punkti miinuses, S&P 500 5,6 punkti miinuses. 10 aastase võlakirja intressimäär kerkis 4,74 protsendile, veel eile sulgus see tasemel 4,6%. Dollar tugevnes euro vastu pea protsendi ehk tasemeni 1,198 eur/usd.
-Inteli (INTC) aktsia võib täna sattuda löögi alla, Wall Street Journal ilmus lugu, kus prognoositakse, et Intel katkestab oma mälukiibi Tejas tootmise, lauaarvutile mõeldud toode on osutunud ootamatult suureks energiatarbijaks. Aktsia on eelturul siiski kerges plussis.
-Teine suur tehnoloogiaaktsia, mille toote kohta on tulemas halbu uudiseid on Microoft (MSFT), uus Windows versioon on hilinemas ning see võib järgmisel fiskaalaastal tähendada müügi 10% langust.
Rev Shark:
Times are rough for the stock market. The optimists are hopeful that the jobs report due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT will help turn the tide, but the overall technical picture looks increasingly bleak. We may see a bounce if the numbers come in just right, but this is a time for patience. Momentum is clearly to the downside, and it will not make a meaningful reversal in the blink of an eye.
The best advice I can give in this difficult environment is to avoid the inclination to try to catch a turn in the market. Such an approach is fraught with danger. You might be able to catch a bounce for a trade, but it is far more difficult to accurately time a meaningful and lasting switch in momentum. The momentum is down and there is no sign at present that it is reversing. Even a strong reaction to the jobs report will not be enough to fully reverse the technical damage that has been done lately.
There has been very troublesome volume and negative breadth for the market recently. Sellers are dominating the action. The bulls like to argue that things are becoming so negative that the market is close to washed out and likely to turn. Don't buy into that overly optimistic argument. Negative sentiment can become far more extreme before we are even close to capitulation.
Weakness in retailers yesterday was very worrisome. That group is one of our best measures of the health of the individual consumer. The Retail HOLDRs Trust (RTH:AMEX) has cracked the 200-day moving average and has a very ugly-looking topping pattern.
When the market was heading up the bears had all sorts of great arguments on why it shouldn't, but their compelling logic was ignored. The bulls are now the ones who are talking about why the market is getting it wrong, but logic is equally unimportant now. What we have to pay attention to is sentiment and the mood of investors. Investors are scared of inflation and interest rate increases, and that is what is determining the course of this market. The jobs report is not likely to change the overall sentiment that much. It might cause a momentary hiccup, but the bigger concerns will not be easily alleviated.
Overseas market and future indications are generally negative while we wait for the big jobs report. The dollar is up, oil is up and gold is down.
The consensus numbers in the jobs report are 335,000 initial claims, an unemployment rate of 5.7% and an average workweek of 33.8 hours. As I said yesterday, I'm not quite sure anyone even knows what exactly will constitute "good news." Therefore the likelihood of some whipsaws and spiky action is very high.
Good luck and go get 'em.
Gary B. Smith:
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Päris palju kosta turul nii tugeva tööjõutururaporti peale jutte, et FED võib intresse tõsta juba enne juuni istungit (erakorralisel istungil), ma ütleks et kahklane.
FEDil on alati majanduse kohta veidi rohkem informatsiooni kui enamikul turuosalistel ja seega ilmselt omasid nad ka aimdust selle tugeva raporti kohta. -
kust nägi tasuta futuuride hindu over/under fair value?
20 mind delay on ok -
näiteks siin - http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/
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Indeksfutuure võib siit leida http://akcje.net/notowania/?kat=i6 . Reaalajas isegi.
Päris punane täna. Dow futuur oli vahepeal alla 10K. Fair value täna YMM4 on -20p.
S1 on 10000 -
Tänane päev tõotab tulla vähemalt huvitav:
- Aasia turud üleöö päris tõsiselt all
- Euroopa all
- USA futuurid Naz, SP ligemale 1% jagu all.
Siiski:
- USA turud avanevad ilmselt otse toetuse juures.
- JP Morgan on väljas Applied Materialsi (AMAT) upgreidiga, milles räägitakse päris positiivseid sõnu kogu pooljuhtide sektori teemal. JP on viimase aasta jooksul avaldanud päris mitu head calli sektori teemal, mis lisab kommentaarile kindlasti kaalu.
- Nafta hind, mille tõusus nähakse aktsiate nõrga käitumise ühte (kindlasti mitte ainukest) põhjust viimaste nädalate jooksul on viimaste tundide jooksul langema hakanud.
sB
