Börsipäev 11. -12 mai - Cisco tulemused - Investeerimine - Foorum

11.05.2004 16:25

-USA futuurid viitavad põrkele nii Euroopa ja aasia turud on kenas plussis. Nasdaqi futuurid on 8 punkti plussis, S&P 500 on 3,3 punkti plussis. Positiivseid uudiseid saabus turule mitu General Electric (GR) ja Disney said kõrgemad reitingud, nafta hind kukkus alla 36 dollari taseme.

-Dollar kerkis euro vastu 1.179 tasemeni, Inglise naela vastu tugevnes dollar 1,2%, mille põhjuseks oli nõrk UK tööstustoodangu näitaja.

-Procter & Gamble (PG) võttis üle Hiina ühisettevõtte kõik aktsiad, makstes 20% osaluse eest 1,8 miljardit dollarit. Ülevõtmine peaks tugevalt mõjutama firma 2005 fiskaalaasta käivet.

-Odavlennufirma Spirit Airlines teatas et ostab 15 Airbus A320 lennukit ja optsiooni 50 lennuki ostmiseks. Negatiivne uudis konkurent Boeingu (BA) jaoks. Lepingu väärtus on 4,4 miljardit dollarit.

- UBS teatas meediafirma Walt Disney (DIS) reitingu tõstmisest "osta" peale, leides et firma on odav ning kasvuootused liialt madalad. Nõrkusena tuuakse välja telekanali ABC kehva turusituatsiooni (vaadatavus aastaga kukkunud 15%), kuid seda peaks tasakaalustama teemaparkide tugevus, poliitreklaami mahu kasv ning DVD-de müügi kasv.

-Citigroup leidis, et ootab General Electricu (GE) kasumi kasvu ning majanduslangus mõju firma majandustulemustele on läbi saamas.

Rev Shark:

The market has been hit so hard with a wave of selling and negative sentiment in the past few days that the likelihood of a bounce is extremely high. A snapback at the point may be extremely powerful. Once it gains a little traction, short-covering and cash-heavy traders will add fuel to the fire.

A bounce is widely anticipated. Practically every market commentator you can find expects one to occur. The anticipation of a relief rally is so great that it is likely to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If you are a trader, you should play that bounce, but maintain your distrust. A big bounce does not mean this correction is over. In fact, it is exactly what you'd expect to see to set up another leg down. The indices and many stocks are very oversold and neither shorters nor sellers are compelled to press at this point.

How oversold is this market? Breadth has been at record poor levels. Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader.com notes that over the past three days, 73% of all stocks have declined. The only time that breadth has been worse was on Oct. 19, 1987, which was the worst one-day crash the market has ever suffered. There have been only three other times that selling was this broad over a three-day time span: June 28, 1965, Aug. 29, 1966 and Oct. 10, 1979.

The point is that the recent selling is at historically high levels and the chances that we bounce back from such a beating is very likely. Given the degree to which the rubber band has stretched to the downside, the chances of a strong bounce are high.

Play that bounce if your time frame is short enough, but don't be too quick to read anything much into it other than a brief respite from unsustainable selling pressure. This market has tremendous overhead and technical damage to deal with, and even a rally over several days will not repair the damage that has been done.

Overseas markets are bouncing and our early tone is positive. The earnings report from Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) this evening is a very convenient rallying point for a bounce. There is no major economic news due and the news flow is benign so far. The semiconductors were the leader yesterday and that group is likely to be the best indicator of how far an oversold bounce may last.

Gary B. Smith:

Börsipäev 11. -12 mai - Cisco tulemused

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