Börsipäev 7. juuni

07.06.2004 16:15

-Kuigi reede õhtul kippus turul ostuhuvi lõppema, siis tänane börsipäev algab siiski korraliku plussiga. S&P 500 on 6,9 punkti ja Nasdaqi futuurid 11 punkti plussis.

-Naftabarreli hind on langenud 38.07 dollari tasemeni. Turul on sellel nädalal tähtsamaidki uudiseid oodata (Föderaalreservi liikmete sõnavõtud) ning nafta hinnale pööratakse tähelepanu alles siis kui see ületab ta 40 dollari piiri.

-Euro on dollari vastu tugevnenud üle 1.23 eur/usd piiri ning suund on pigem dollari edasisele nõrgenemisele.

-Sellel nädalal on fookuses farmaatsiasektor, nädalavahetusel alanud ASCO konverentsilt noppisid analüütikud positiivseid uudiseid ning kinnitust said mitmed vähiravimi positiivsed uuringud. Positiivset on siis loota biotehnoloogia firmadel nagu Genetech (DNA), Biogen (BIIB) ja Amgen (AMGN).

Rev Shark:

One of traits that helped make Ronald Reagan a great president was his unwavering optimism. Even when times were tough he had a way of reassuring us that we would find our way through and eventually be better off.

In the stock market, optimism is often viewed as being for amateurs. Many of the old wizened pros, who have seen it all, have a tendency to expect the worst and to be skeptical about the chances of a market boom. There have even been recent academic studies showing pessimists tend to do better in the market than optimists.

I have found that Reaganesqe optimism is a very important factor in trading success. That doesn't mean unwavering belief in a perpetual bull market, but belief that there will always be a flow of trading opportunities. All traders go through tough times but the ones who succeed in the long run are those who preservere and are confident that if they just keep working away and stay patient that they will eventually be rewarded.

Recent weeks have been very challenging for many traders because of the low-volume, uncertain action. Rallies have been consistently sold and pullbacks bought, which leaves us pinned in a tight range. Volume has been light and even when we have good news, like Friday, we have been unable to build on it.

I don't know when or what the catalyst may be, but I'm confident that we will soon have a more hospitable trading environment; we simply have to watch and wait for it to develop. The key will be to make sure you have capital available to trade when things become easier. Traditional Wall Street is constantly pushing you to be fully invested. Resist those arguments and wait for greater clarity. Becoming fully invested too early robs you of flexibility and the capacity to jump on the best ideas.

Averaging down into stocks that appear to be "bargains" can be very enticing but having capital available when the market starts to make a sustained move can be far more lucrative as you jump into the leading stocks.

We have a little Monday morning optimism to start the week. Overseas market were strong with Asia leading the way. Biotechnology and pharmacy stocks are seeing a boost from the ASCO meeting this weekend, which focused on the development of new cancer drugs. Casinos are being boosted by a takeover in the sector.

The market is feeling good this morning but the recent pattern has been the inability to build on good news. It will be interesting to see how intent traders are about fading this strong open this morning. Biotechnology and semiconductors need to perform if this market is going to make a meaningful upside move.

I have not seen any official comment on this yet but in the past the NYSE has closed for the funeral of a former president. The last time was on April 27, 1994 for the funeral of Richard Nixon and prior to that on Jan. 25, 1973 for the funeral of Lyndon Johnson. President Reagan's funeral is to be held on Friday. The NYSE should announce soon if it will continue its policy of closing for such an event.

Gary B. Smith: