Börsipäev 9. juuni
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-USA futuurid on kerges miinuses, vaatamata nafta hinna langusele. Muret valmistab turuosalistele endiselt Alan Greenspani eilne sõnavõtt, et Föderaalreserv võtab inflatsiooni vastu kasutusele vajalikud abinõud.
-Valuutaturul on dollar euro vastu tugevnenud pea protsendi ning üks euro maksab 1,215 dollarit. Nafta hind on langenud juba alla 37 dollarit barreli eest ning suurem osa õhust on mullist välja voolanud. Naftaaktsiatele on uudis loomulikult negatiivne.
-Hiina arvutitootja Lenovo Group kasutab oma arvutites AMD Athlon 64 ja Athlon XP protsessoreid, uudis on eelturul tõstnud AMD aktsiat üle protsendi (esmase reaktsiooni mõjul kerkis aktsia üle 4%) negatiivselt on reageerinud konkurent Inteli (INTC) aktsia.
Rev Shark:
As the market downtrended in late April and early May, just about all news seemed to be a convenient excuse for selling stocks. Strong economic data were an excuse to worry about interest rates; rising oil prices justified concern about a slow economic recovery and stretched consumers; and the unrest in Iraq was an excuse for just about anything else negative that you could come up with.
Over the past couple of weeks, the inclination to look for excuses to sell stocks has declined. Even Mr. Greenspan's comments yesterday, which were his strongest hint yet about impending interest rate hikes, could not shake the bulls. The news flow about oil and Iraq has now turned positive, and now bears need to find other reasons to be negative about this market.
The bears' biggest worry, which I share, is the lack of volume driving this recent move. The Nasdaq had below-average volume over each of the last nine trading day. Back on May 25 was the last time the Nasdaq exceeded its average and that was by a miniscule amount.
A lot of folks like to shrug off low volume as a meaningless concern. They argue that the market is going up and that is all that really matters. The problem with that argument is that it tends to ignore the predictive value of volume. Volume is our best gauge of market momentum. The higher the level of volume, the more likely a move will be sustained.
The fact that the current rally has come on low volume is important in that we have not had the sort of aggressive buying that indicates that the appetite for stocks is so strong that available supply will be eaten up quickly. In fact, the low volume means, that if supply of stock does start to increase, the likelihood of a quick pullback is high.
The bulls are quick to shrug off the sluggish volume by saying it is just a function of the beginning of summer. Perhaps, but technically we still need to see volume tick up over recent levels if the current move is to have good support. Even if volume has dropped due to seasonality, we should see buyers becoming more active on up days and less aggressive on down days. That has not been the case lately.
The market mood has undergone quite a dramatic shift over the last couple weeks. The negativity and pessimism was running extremely high just a short time ago and has now morphed into an environment where even Alan Greenspan is incapable of producing even a minor pullback.
The low-volume nature of this rally coupled with the positive sentiment has me very cautious at this point. Throw in the fact that most of the best long opportunities are quite extended technically and that leaves me holding a very high level of cash.
In the early going we have a negative bias. Oil continues to drop but the news flow is quiet. Overseas markets are mixed and the only economic news is wholesale inventories at 10 a.m. EDT.
Thanks to Cody once again for filling in. If you could bottle that enthusiasm and energy, you'd be a very wealthy guy.
Gary B. Smith:
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Tundub, et Raisio murdis vastupanu.
