Börsipäev 14. juuni
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-Pikale nädalavahetusele järgnev päev on turgudele oluline, sest suuremad tegijad on turul tagasi ning nende poolt kinnitatakse või lükatakse ümber eelmise nädala tõusutrend. Eelturul on S& P 500 futuurid 5,5 punkti miinuses, Nasadaqi futuurid on 9 punkti miinuses.
-USA kaubavahetusdefitsiit kerkis aprillis rekordilise 48,3 miljardi dollarini (oodati 45,1 miljardi dollari suurust defitsiiti). Samas taastus mais jaekaubanduse kiire kasv ning kasvunumbriks kujunes 1,2%, mis vastas analüütikute ootustele.
-Nokia aktsia (NOK) reageeris viie uue mudeli avalikustamisele üle 2% langusega (Euroopas). Neli mudelit on kauaoodatud klapiga telefonid, millede puudumist on peetud turuosa langus suurimaks põhjuseks .
-Dollarit on tugevdanud jutud, et Föderaalreserv võib intressimäära tõstmise ette võtta oodatust jõulisemas tempos.
Rev Shark:
The main cause of market weakness in recent months has been worry and concern about the possibility of rising interest rates. As the market found its footing and rallied over the past few weeks, the bulls talked optimistically about the possibility that interest rate hikes have already being priced into this market. Their argument is that because we all know that interest rate increases are inevitable, the market did what it's supposed to do and already discounted that possibility.
However, there are problems when the market fails to anticipate accurately what may occur. In the past few days there have been a number of comments from FOMC members and other knowledgable sources that interest rates may rise faster than had previously been expected.
Alan Greenspan has been talking about a "measured approach" to interest rates but it is obvious from other public comments that the Fed is concerned about being too passive. The latest comments have raised the possibility that the FOMC may raise rates 0.5% at the next meeting rather than 0.25%, which has been widely expected. That is what is causing the pressure this morning.
Interest rates are always a major factor in determining market direction but we also have several other issues at the moment that present formidable obstacles for the bulls. The first is the technical picture.
The indices made a strong move off the May lows but the rally came on low volume and did not have the sort of momentum that indicates aggressive institutional buying. Over the past week the indices ran into substantial overhead resistance at the downtrend line that connects the January and April tops. We haven't failed yet but this market simply has not had the necessary juice needed to take out the technical hurdles in a convincing fashion. Until we see more aggressive action from the bulls, primarily in the form of volume, it is going to be tough going to the upside.
In addition to the technical difficulties we also have a number of fundamental factors to consider (in addition to interest rate worries). First, we are entering the earnings preannouncement season. This is the time of the quarter when companies begin to discover whether they will make their estimates, and start to come clean. Last quarter we had very few earnings warnings but we don't have any idea yet what this quarter will bring.
In addition to fundamentals we continue to have the same roster of other worries that have been out there for a while: oil and gas prices, Iraq unrest, China's efforts to slow growth, the presidential election and the usual assortment of terrorist worries.
The bulls have some major obstacles to contend with and the recent puny volume is a warning sign that they may be lacking the ammunition to drive this market higher.
Early indications are negative with overseas markets in the red and interest rate fears in the forefront. Retail sales data are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT but overall the news flow is fairly slow.
Gary B. Smith:
