Börsipäev 15. juuni- inflatsioon kontrolli all, esialgu

15.06.2004 16:18

-USA futuurid on kerges plussis, enne börsipäeva avaldatud tarbijahinnaindeks oli oodatust küll veidi halvem, kuid kardeti isegi hullemaid numbreid. Futuuride põhjal võib väita, et tulemus oli turule kergenduseks.

-USA tarbijahinnaindeks oli mais oodatust veelgi kiirema tõusuga ning nafta ja gaasi kallinemise toel kerkis indeks 0,6%, mis on kolme aasta kõrgeim näitaja. Ilma energia ja toidukomponentideta kerkis tuum inflatsioonimäär 0,2%, mis vastas ootustele.

-Lehman Bros (LEH) ületas oma kvartalitulemustega kergelt ootusi, teises kvartalis teeniti 609 miljonit dollarit ehk 2,01 dollarit aktsia kohta.

-Boeing (BA) teatas, et võitis mereväe korraldatud konkursi ja sai omale 3,9 miljardi dollari suuruse lepingu. Kaotajaks jäi teine lennukiehitaja Lockheed Martin (LMT).

Rev Shark:

The low volume that has recently dogged this market has made aggressive action very difficult for most traders. Volume is a necessary ingredient of momentum, and without it we can have even less confidence than usual that a move or trend will continue in a particular direction. The random nature of recent action is keeping many folks on the sidelines.

There are many possible reasons for the light volume, such as seasonality and changes in the strategic approaches of large funds, but the most likely is good old-fashioned uncertainty. In recent weeks, we have had little earnings news, lots of geopolitical events to consider and a continued evolution in thinking about how fast the FOMC will raise rates.

Many market participants are looking to the economic data that are due out today to help provide a little more clarity. CPI and PPI are going to be very closely scrutinized, and if they are higher than anticipated, the market is going to start pricing in increased odds of a 0.5% interest rate hike at the FOMC meeting in two weeks.

Interest rate concerns had been pushed aside for a little while, which allowed a low volume rally during the last couple of weeks. But several FOMC members, including Chairman Greenspan, have hinted recently that they are prepared to be aggressive should conditions warrant it. That undercut previous comments about a "measured approach" to rates and has spooked the market a bit.

The Nasdaq is at a particular crucial technical point this morning as we await the economic news. It is sitting right on its 200-day simple moving average at 1968. Today's close above or below that level will be an important technical consideration.

I would not be at all surprised to see the reports this morning to be sufficiently uncertain so that the possibility of a 0.5% hike remains unresolved. The best thing from a trading standpoint would probably be a big number that makes the chances of a 0.5% hike a certainty. We'd sell off on the news, but the market would price it in and eventually find an equilibrium point.

In the early going we have a slight positive open on tap, but the news at 8:30 a.m. EDT will change that. Stay tuned.

Gary B. Smith: