Börsipäev 25. juuni
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-USA futuurid on kerges plussis vaatamata esimese kvartali SKP ülevaatamisele allapoole ning inflatsiooni kiirenemisele. Enne järgmise nädala Föderaalreservi Nõukogu istungit suuremaid liikumisi ei ootaks. Nasdaqi futuurid +1,5 punkti, S&P 500 samapalju plussis.
-USA esimese kvartali kogutoodangu kasv parandati üllatuslikult allapoole ehk 4,4% asemel oli kasv vaid 3,9%. Samuti tõsteti varem suhteliselt tagasihoidlikuks jäänud inflatsiooninumbrit, tuuminflatsioonimäär, mis ei arvesta energia ja toiduainete hindasid kerkis esimeses kvartalis aasta baasile viiduna 2%, veel kuu tagasi oli vastav number 1,7%.
Cody Willard:
Within the next five trading days, we'll be hit with a barrage of important developments in the financial markets and geopolitics. The Big Bad Events on tap are well highlighted on these pages and elsewhere, but for the record, the U.S. hands over Iraq and the Fed will make its announcement about how much it's raised rates and how aggressive it will be about raising rates going forward. Not to mention that it's the end of the quarter too.
With so much attention and focus on June 30, this market is already pricing in a lot of its reaction. Everybody all but knows that the Fed will raise rates. (Probably 25 bps, given the recently reined-in economic data.) And we all but know that the Fed is going to have to continue to raise rates to fight inflation as this economic boom gets longer in the teeth.
Likewise we know that the Iraq handoff is not going to be smooth. The insurgents and terrorists in Iraq aren't going to miraculously stop just because a government they hate hands the country over to a government they'll also hate.
The market does its best to look forward and discount what's coming. Howard Simons said yesterday that we might get a sell-the-news reaction to these events, in my mind suggesting that both the Fed meeting and the Iraq hand off are net positives. I'm not sure that's the case. Implicit in that sell-the-positive-news comment is that we're also about to fall back into a good-news-is-bad and bad-news-is-good scenario.
We've just within the last couple of weeks exited that type of phase; I'm not so sure we'll slip back into one this quickly.
It's looking like a quiet morning so far, at least for the markets, although we've got news of more terrorist activities coming out of Iraq. Futures are slightly higher as the somebodies betting on a broader move higher before the market opens are outweighing those who think it'll fall.
Gary B. Smith:
