Börsipäev 1. juuli - peale FEDi ja enne juuni tööjõuraportit & tulemuste hooaega - Investeerimine - Foorum

USA turud on futuuride põhjal ennustades avanemas ülinapis miinuses samal ajal kui Euroopa on kordamas ookeantitaguste turgude eilset tõusu.

Eilsel järelturul ja täna enne turgu olulisi tulemusi laekunud ega kasumihoiatusi antud ei ole. Endiselt on kasumihoiatuste hulk enne järgmise nädala alguses hoo sisse saavat tulemuste hooaega väike.

Töötu abiraha esmataotlejate arv kasvas statistiliselt tähtsusetu 1000 võrra 351 000 tasemele, see ei mõjuta homse juuni tööjõuraportiga seotud ootusi - loodetakse 250 000 uue töökoha loomist juunis.

Deutsche Bank andis Nokia (NOK) aktsiale ostusoovituse hinnasihiga 14 EUR (ca 17 USD), aktsia eelturul +2,13%. Nokia II kvartali tulemused laekuvad juba 15. juulil ja sellele eelnev volatiilusus pakub kuhjaga kauplemisvõimalusi.

Rev Shark:

There are those of us who are always about to live. We are waiting until things change, until there is more time, until we are less tired, until we get a promotion, until we settle down -- until, until, until. It always seems as if there is some major event that must occur in our lives before we begin living.

--George Sheehan

The FOMC interest decision is made, the Russell rebalancing is done and the quarter-end window dressing is now over. The major events are finished and the drivers for artificial buying have come to an end. The bulls will now need to do some real work to prove themselves. The wind is at their backs, but it is going to require some real effort and genuine buying if they are going to produce a meaningful rally. Procrastination at this juncture may prove to be costly.

There are a number of positives for the bulls right now. The foremost is a healthy-looking technical picture. The Nasdaq has managed to bust the downtrend line that has been in place since January with some conviction. That downtrend line and the prior June high now serve as support. The chip stocks have turned up and are on the verge of moving back over the 200-day simple moving average. It's not there yet, but it's close. If that group starts running, the Nasdaq should be in very good shape.

The senior indices, the Dow and S&P 500, have been stuck in a trading range for three weeks now. That base provides a very solid foundation for a move if momentum picks up. The S&P needs to close over 1145 or so and the DJIA needs a move 10,490 to begin a breakout move. If such a move came on increased volume, the bulls would be sitting very pretty.

The only real technical negative right now is a bit too much bullishness. The Investors Intelligence survey indicates a four-month high in positive sentiment, and a number of other measures indicate a high level of optimism. A high level of bullishness doesn't mean the market can't run -- it did exactly that for most of last year -- but it does present the problem of a potential lack of buying power.

So overall the technical picture is looking healthy. The big question now is whether earnings season can provide the juice to get things running. In the first quarter this year, we had generally good reports and guidance, but the market could not manage to rally as it obsessed over the possibility of interest rate hikes. We don't have that same worry this time, but the market can always find a new distraction if it so desires.

We also have to consider how economic data may impact the market mood. A number of recent reports, such as Wednesday's Chicago PMI, have been a bit soft. Soft reports were OK while the market worried about the degree of interest rate hikes, but now that the matter is somewhat settled, the bulls need some solid data to work with. We have weekly unemployment claims today and the very important monthly job stats tomorrow that are going to be closely watched.

The bulls have the edge and they can even withstand a few days of flat or slightly down action, but when earnings reports start to roll in they cannot afford to procrastinate. They will need to prove themselves or it is going to be a very long and hot summer.

In the early going we are sitting close to unchanged. Overseas markets were mostly higher. The Tokyo Nikkei saw a boost due to better manufacturer confidence. Oil is trading down and gold is making a run at the $400 level. The dollar is mixed.

Don't forget we have the three-day Fourth of July weekend coming up, and that is likely to thin the ranks of traders and add to volatility over the next two days.

Börsipäev 1. juuli - peale FEDi ja enne juuni tööjõuraportit & tulemuste hooaega

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