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Börsipäev 16. juuli - optsioonireede toob volatiilsust

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  • Täna leiame Nasdagi avanemas ca 1% ja vana majanduse indeksid 0,2-0,5% plussis.

    Suurima tõuke selleks on andnud eile peale turu sulgemist laekunud maailma suurima arvutitootja IBM (IBM) tulemused, ootusi ületati ja aktsia on eelturul +1,70% üleval.

    Mälutootja Rambus (RMBS) on eileõhtuste heade tulemuste järel eelturul koguni +17,99% tõsusnud, samas kui teise pooljuhtide sektori esindaja PMC-Sierra (PMCS) tulemused jäid ootustele alla, aktsia eelturul -4,94%.

    Enne turu algust olulisi tulemusi ei laekunud, kuid positiivsust lisab siiski asjaolu, et 13 raporteerinud ettevõttest vaid 3 jäid ootustele alla, samas kui 6 ületas prognoose ja 4 näitas inline tulemusi.

    Rev Shark:

    "What can you do against the lunatic who is more intelligent than yourself, who gives your arguments a fair hearing and then simply persists in his lunacy?"

    -- George Orwell

    The tough thing about the market is that there are long periods of time when it seems to be acting completely irrational. No matter how much we reason or complain, it just continues to do what it wants. The more we fight it the more obstinate it becomes. When we arrive at the point where we simply can't take it any longer and decide to cut our losses, all those arguments that we have been making suddenly start to matter and market direction shifts.

    There are a lot of ways to make money trading in stocks, but failing to respect the intelligence and power of the market is generally not one of them. That doesn't mean you shouldn't look for turning points, but never forget that the market is smarter than you and no matter how convinced you are of something, it doesn't much matter if the market doesn't agree.

    In recent weeks, the market has apparently decided that earnings growth has slowed and that valuations may be too high. Many of us may disagree with that sentiment, and, in fact, in quite a few individual cases the market may have gone too far in imposing that belief. However, trying to catch the point where the market has fully discounted its concerns has been a losing game. Sooner or later things will turn, but timing is everything in this game, and if you are wrong it can be quite painful.

    As I've mentioned numerous times in my daily scribblings, I tend to be a "reactive" trader rather than an "anticipatory" one. Mr. Market is bigger, more powerful and, above all else, smarter than me. The only way I'll win an argument with him is to hope he decides to change his mind, and if he does change his mind he is going to do it when he's good and ready -- not I when I think he has gone too far.

    So my approach is to not fight the beast, but rather climb on his back and try to benefit from his momentum when he decides to embark on a new journey. When you find yourself in full agreement with Mr. Market, he is an extremely powerful friend who can make you buckets of money if you stick with him. He can turn on you quickly, but if are in tune with him, nothing can be more profitable.

    The market beast has been feeding on a steady supply of poor news in recent weeks and has been quite comfortable in trending to the downside. We have had a couple of forays to the upside by the bulls, but Mr. Market is having none of that and has squashed such impertinence very quickly.

    However, there have been a few signs that Mr. Market may relent in his bearish stance. We attempted to bounce on bad news a couple of times, and the frustration level is growing to the point where Mr. Market may be tempted to change his stance and snack on a few of the pessimists for a change.

    Earnings last night from IBM (IBM:NYSE) were neutral to slightly positive, but Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) stepped up this morning and provided some upbeat guidance. The bulls are so hungry for some good news that they are jumping into some technology stocks on the Dell preannouncement. We have seen this morning bounce play before, and the real key is the ability to hold on to the opening gains and build on them. Until we can manage a strong finish, we shouldn't even be thinking about loading up on the long side.

    We have an upbeat open. Asian markets were higher overnight and European markets were mixed. Oil is up over $41 again, and that may act as a drag on any upside action.

    Mr. Market is going to continue to keep things very tricky, and the best way for us to deal with that is to be prepared to act quickly.

    Good luck and go get 'em.

  • Gapping Up

    RMBS +17% (Q2 earnings report, guides up for Q3), BSTE +11% (raises guidance), DELL +2.1% (raises guidance), RECN +9.1% (reports MayQ), APPX +6.1% (gets FDA approval for generic Piperacillin; short squeeze), JBHT +4.5% (beats by $0.09), IPIX +4.3% (reports Q2; security revs becoming larger part of business), SWIR +3.3% (bounces after 7.4% drop yesterday).... Under $3: SMSI +27% (selected by Verizon Wireless).

    Gapping Down

    NFLX -17% (misses by $0.02; WR Hambrecht downgrade), HOTT -16% (guides lower; Bear Stearns and AG Edwards downgrades), LEXR -10% (Q2 earnings report, warns for Q3), VNLS -9% (profit taking after 135% jump yesterday), PMCS -5% (reports Q2), AMCC -6% (in sympathy with PMCS), BMY -6% (started with a Reduce at UBS, tgt $21), AZPN -6% (FTC request to sell its operator training services biz).
  • Head uudised jätkuvad, teine suur arvutitootja Dell (DELL) on tõstnud prognoose ...

    Company issues upside guidance for Q2 (Jul), sees EPS of $0.31 vs. Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.29 on revs $11.7 bln vs the consensus of $11.7 bln. Company states "Higher operating profitability is expected to produce EPS of 30 cents; the balance of the guidance increase is attributable to a further decline in the company's global tax rate."
  • pooljuhid jätkuvalt veavad turgu alla

    Sector Watch: Semi Index -SOX- moves to new 11 month low

    Early bounce quickly reversed with today's slide picking up its pace over the last 15 minutes. The weakest components of the SOX this morning are: LSCC -2.2%, TXN -2%, BRCM -2.5%, AMD -1.9%, MOT -1.9%, MXIM -1.6%. Still on the plus side are: LSI +0.4%, AMAT +0.2%, TER +0.2%.
  • PKS on täna rallinud tugevalt alla -25%, kas nüüd on õige aeg osta?
  • Hm, kas põhjustest on ka midagi teada? Muidu võib osutuda kukkuva noa püüdmiseks . . .
  • ... ja nasdaq napilt 1900st läbi. Samas parajalt ülemüüdud.
  • income,
    minu jaoks pole PKS sugusel aktsial kunagi mingit väärtust olnud, lihtsalt siin foorumites on seda haibitud ca. 7,5-8 usd tasemelt, nüüd on 4,72
  • Kas keegi oskab kommenteerida, mis põhjustel langes Six Flags'i (PKS) aktsia 16.07.2004? Milles probleemid seisnevad? Millised võivad olla lahendused ja edaspidised arengud?
  • LHV Pro all on teemat lahatud.

    sB

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