Börsipäev 20. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Gapping Up
SCH +4.8% (initial reaction to earnings report, return of Charles Schwab to CEO post), SONSE +20% (completes review of fin statements; expects to file within a week; Goldman upgrade), BRLI +13% (Jefferies upgrade), SSNC +9.2% (beats by $0.02, guides Q3 & Y04 above consensus), CYBS +9% (Wm Blair upgrade), ABFS +9% (reports strong Q2; Stephens upgrade), ALDN +8.3% (reports Q2), GLW +7.4% (beats, guides higher), BMRN +5% (announces positive clinical results), NVS +4% (reports strong interim results), STLD +3.8% (beats by $0.05), AMTD +2.2% (reports in-line), FRX +1.9% (beats by $0.03).... Under $3: TGAL +8.5% (announces order).
Gapping Down
OFIX -15% (guides Q2 lower), DSPG -14% (guides Q3 and Q4 revs below consensus on conference call), FLEX -6.5% (reports in-line, but does not raise guidance), TASR -6% (reports Q2, plans vote to increase shares), BSX -3% (WSJ story), CGNX -3.1% (reports Q2). -
USA eelturg on viitamas positiivsele päeva algusele, Fordi (F) teise kvartali majandustulemused olid ootuste kõrgemas ääres ning kogu aasta kasumiprognoosi tõsteti aktsia kohta 15 sendi võrra vahemikku 1,8-1,9 dollarit. Eelkõige oli tugev Firma finantseerimisüksus.
Täna on oluliseks sündmuseks Alan Greenspani esinemine kongressi ees, oodatakse pigem positiivset tooni USA majandusekohta.
Elektroonikafirmadele allhankeid tegev Flextronics (FLEX) majandustulemused olid pettumuseks ning ka järgmise kvartali prognoos oli pettumuseks. Aktsia langes eelturul 7%.
Rev Shark:
Attempting to measure turning points in the market by weighing the mood of investors is a very tricky business. The theory is a fairly simple one. When emotions become very extreme, everyone who is going to sell has already done so. The selling pressure will dry up and the market is likely to reverse.
It is a very compelling piece of contrary logic and that is why so many market pros spend so much time trying to decipher the prevailing mood of market participants. Theoretically, if they can accurately gauge when sentiment is at an extreme they can position themselves nicely to catch a major turn in the market.
Most of us have had some memorable personal experiences with the volatile nature of human moods. They can shift faster than the blink of an eye and leave us stunned by the way they change, not only day to day but hour to hour -- and that is only one person. Imagine trying to measure the mood of the folks who comprise the stock market, which ranges from small individual investors trying to protect meager retirement savings to big institutions managing billions of dollars for highly affluent business enterprises.
Aside from the difficulty of measuring mood itself there is the additional difficulty of trying to gauge accurately the cause-and-effect relationship between mood and market moves. Simply because emotions are at high levels doesn't necessarily mean that folks have acted on those feelings.
We saw a good example of this last year when bullish sentiment was at very high levels for much of the year but the market continued to rise. Even though people were very bullish they were not fully invested. They still had cash on hand and when that was combined with their optimistic outlook, it caused the market to continue rising even though it felt like optimism was too great.
We have to consider the mirror image of that same phenomenon right now. The market has been acting in such a way to indicate that the mood is quite negative but is it safe for us to assume that everyone who is inclined to sell has probably done so and a turn is near? Maybe, but trying to measure this with any great degree of precision is a very perilous game.
Like so many other aspects of investing, the big problems with using mood as a contrary indicator come when you are overly anticipatory. When you talk yourself into thinking that market sentiment can't possiblu become worse, it usually does. The safe approach is to watch for signs that market participants feel the world really isn't coming to an end. Average in slowly when you feel a turning point is near but don't become aggressive until you see some hard evidence. Don't rely too much on the judgment of "experts" about mood. No one has been able to accurately quantify it and no one ever will.
As we head into a very busy news day we have a slightly positive open shaping up. Not only do we have a full schedule of earnings reports on the agenda but Alan Greenspan will be testifying before Congress and offering up his latest insights on the state of the economy.
Overseas markets were soft due in part to a slightly weaker-than-expected semiconductor book-to-bill report. Oil and gold are down slightly. The earnings reports that have come out so far look to be fairly good, particularly Corning (GLW:NYSE), which is having some sympathetic impact.
Gary B. Smith
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Kell 21.30 peaks Greenspani kommentaarid hakkama turule jõudma, seni paistab pilt päris ilus.
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Ehk seletate mulle neid olulisi toetustasemeid. Mõned päevad tagasi räägiti nasdaq 1900, kukkus sealt läbi, järgmine päev ronib üle. Mida sellest järeldada - minu mõistus ütleb et mingeid toetustasemeid POLE OLEMAS
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Minu jaoks ei eksisteeri neid juba ammu:P
Esiteks j22b mulle segaseks toetustasemete vahemikud,kas need on 1% voi 10%.
Et saab konkreetselt nyyd v2ita,kas ta kukkus l2bi voi mitte
Pigem mulle meeldivad rohkem ymmargused numbrid 5,10 jne
seal saab v2hemalt konstateerida fakti on ta nyyd yle voi mitte.. -
Toetustase (vastupanu) tuleneb ajaloolistest - samadel tasemetel toimunud pusimiskohtadest ning suure tõenäosusega võib ka tulevikus siin pöördepunkt tulla.
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Ford tõestas oma tulemuste ja vastava aktsiahinna liikumisega veelkord Ghosni poolt eelmisel sajandil paikapandud tõde - enam pole võimalik toota keskmises või alla selle hinnaklassis kvaliteetseid autosid ja samas teenida kasumit põhitegevusest. Mõistagi ei käi see premium-markide kohta.
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Nasdaqi toetustase on sama mis Jupiteri mõju inimeste käitumisele.
Kas tõesti miljon inimest, kes ostavad erinevaid aktsiaid, tunnetavad alateadlikult ühel ja samal ajal, et on mingi toetustase, millest summeerub Nasdaqi toetustase! -
Väga õige MSM, selleni tahtsin ka mina jõuda, et mingi loogika on üksikaktsia puhul, aga indeksite puhul küll mitte
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Loogika on tegelikult olemas nii aktsiate kui ka indeksite puhul, sellest tuleb vaid õigesti aru saada. Koduperenaised seda loogikat ei taipa ja seeetõttu profid just nende arvelt kõige enam võidavadki.
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Täpselt nii! Turgudel on oma loogika, mis ei lähe alati kokku tavainimese loogikaga.
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Kui minu mõistus füüsikast teemat "Anioonsete ning katioonsete elektronergastuste lagunemine laiakeelutsoonilistes ioonsetes kristallides" läbi ei hammusta, kas siis seda pole olemas?
Tean ise kauplejaid, kes ainult indekseid kaubeldes pidevalt raha teevad, seega proovige ikka puude taga metsa näha. -
Kristjan,
Kas toesti fuusikas on selline teema olemas?:)
Juba paljalt teema pealkirja teadmine naitab, et uhtteist jagad Sa ka fuusikast:) -
Niipalju siis sellest nasdaq1900 toetustasemest- hüppab kord alla, kord üles ... eks igaüks teeb omad järeldused ...
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Spunk, http://www.etf.ee/index.php?id=549&keel=EST
