Börsipäev 21. juuli - Microsoftilt üllatus
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Eelhäälestus enne turu avanemist on USA-s positiivne. Nasdaqi futuurid on 8 punkti ja S&P 500 futuurid 5 punkti plussis. Suure üllatusega sai hakkama Microsoft (MSFT), mis teatas üllatusdividendidest ning väga suurest aktsiate tagasiostuplaanist.
Maailma suurima tarkvaratootja aktsia on eelturul kerkinud üle 29 dollari , mis tähendab 3% kerkimist. Firma, mis genereerib miljard dollarit positiivset rahavoogu kuus teatas tavadividendide kahekordistamisest, erakorralisest (3 dollarit aktsia kohta ) dividendist ning 30 miljardi dollari suurusest aktsiate tagasiostuprogrammist.
Maailma suurim fotofilmide tootja Eastman Kodak (EK) teatas teise kvartali kasumist, mis ületas ootusi, tugev tulemus tehti eelkõige tänu digitaaltehnoloogia üksusele. Firma teatas veel 1300 töötaja koondamisest.
Tehnoloogiasektoris teatas Motorola (MOT) et firma käive kerkis üle ootuste hästi ning teises kvartalis võideti mobiilide osas turuosa tagasi.
Maailma suurim telekommunikatsioonivarustuse tootja Lucent (LU) teatas neljandast järjestikusest kasumiga lõppenud kvartalist, kasvav nõudlus on tingitud telefonifirmade suurenenud tellimustest.
Rev Shark:
If you desire to establish yourself as a stock market seer, all you have to do is predict that change will occur. The one great certainty in the stock market is that the prevailing trend will eventually reverse, at least for some limited amount of time.
After a shift in the market occurs, it often appears to have been the fulfillment of the inevitable. What seems like an impossibility yesterday is destiny today.
News events often seem to suddenly conspire to create a shift in the market just when emotions become extreme. When fear is running high and all the news is negative, we suddenly have a day when the clouds part and the sun breaks through. In retrospect, the sudden shift does not feel like a surprise, but seems fated just like the dawn. All the negatives we dwelled on are temporarily forgotten, as we start on the trek to the point where fate will impose her will and shift the market mood once again.
We have a slew of good news this morning. What is particularly interesting from the chart reader's standpoint is that it occurs exactly at the point where the Nasdaq was testing its low point of the year. If we were going to bounce, this is exactly the point where such an event would be predicted to occur.
The big question now is whether the Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) dividend and buyback and the generally good earnings reports are good enough to cause a meaningful shift in the ugly downtrend that has dogged the market since the start of July. Is the news good enough to reassure the bulls that maybe they should start doing some more buying? Will the shorts be caught leaning the wrong way?
Right now a rally seems fated to occur. We had an extreme level of pessimism, and now the news feels very good. The course of the market looks set at the moment, and that is when it can be the most dangerous. A strong move looks inevitable right now. We definitely have to respect that, but we can't throw all caution to the wind. Take some profits into the strength if you have them, and don't be too quick to chase strength. If a new leg up is indeed our destiny, there will be time to join the party. Destiny is not fulfilled in one day.
We have a big open on good news. Overseas markets romped and the buyers look ready to deploy some cash. There are a couple of negatives, such as Mercury Interactive (MERQ:Nasdaq) and ImClone (IMCL:Nasdaq), but the tizzy over Microsoft compensates for many sins. I have already sold down some of my buy of Microsoft on the news and am unlikely to stay on board for long. It may continue to elevate, but I prefer the more volatile action of smaller capitalization stocks.
Buckle up. It's going to be an interesting day
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Gapping Up
MSFT +4.1% (special dividend announcement; share buyback), ROXI +17% (guides higher), DAL +16% (pilots offer more concessions on their wages - WSJ), HEPH +8% (CEO scheduled to testify on WMD Medical Countermeasures before Houses Armed Services Committee).... Gapping up on strong earnings report: SANM +15% (also CIBC upgrade), SPRT +12%, WEBX +11%, ERICY +9%, ET +7%, PLT +6%, TLAB +6%, MVK +5.5%, EK +5%, LLTC +5% (also Piper upgrade), LU +4.4%, TXN +2.2%, NXTL +1.9%.
Gapping Down
Lower on disappointing earnings: SGTL -23%, MERQ -19%, CACS -22%, NVEC -12%, IVGN -11%, IMCL -10%, NABI -9%, TLGD -9%, SIRI -2.4%.... ALXN -4% (prices 5 mln share offering at $15.50). -
600 usd annab Bill mulle :)
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Farmaatsia on viimasel ajal kõvasti kukkunud ning viimased majandustulemused pole ka just kõige paremad olnud. Vaatamata sellele võiks oodata väikest rallit enne Schering Plough (SGP) ja Merck'i (MRK) ühisravimi Vytorin FDA otsust turustamisloa kohta. Uudis võiks tulla, kas selle nädala lõpus või järgmise alguses. SGP on vaikselt tõusnud, kuna turuosalised ootavad positiivset FDA otsust.
Vytorin peaks olema uus kolesteroolialandaja, mis peaks tõsist konkurentsi pakkuma Pfizer'i (PFE) Lipitor'ilr. Vytolin on tähtis nii SGP ja MRK jaoks kui ka kogu sektori jaoks. -
Sidekick, räägi asjassepühendamatutele ka, mis loom see Prozac on ja kas seda süüakse söögi alla või peale? :-)
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vaatasin, et lihtsalt nunnu pilt ja sobib konteksti :)
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Kas SGP peale oleks mõtekas väike straddle teha?
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Marman, kardan, et liikumine ei pruugi tulla piisav, seega pigem mitte.
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Ma usun, et kui Vytorin approvali saab, hüppavad SGP aktsiad max 1-1.5 pt.
sB -
Kuhu jäi arvatud põrge.Huvitav oleks lugeda kuidas nn. analüütikud ennast välja keerutavad.
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Mis siis 6igupoolest oli Microsofti eilne s6num investoritele?
Minu arvates järgmine.
Mitukymmend aastat tehnoloogiasektorit vedanud Microsoft ei n2e enam v6imalusi kiireks kasvuks. Annab investoritele raha tagasi - vaadake ise kuhu edaspidi investeerite.
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Kus asub uus Eldorado? V6iblat seal kuhu Gates läbi oma investeeerimissfirma Cascade ise on raha paigutanud - ravimifirmad ja biotehnoloogia -
Margus, väga õige - dividendiga kuulutab Microsoft ka kasvuperioodi ametlikult lõppenuks. See ei tähenda, et aktsia peaks langema hakkama, lihtsalt kiiret kasvu tuleb mujalt otsida.
Muuseas, Dow Jones tööstuskeskmise 30 ettevõtte hulgas olid mõni aeg tagasi veidi võõrkehadena kaks tehnoloogiaettevõtet - Intel (INTC) ka Microsoft. Tänaseks paistab pilt teine ja Intel pole samuti koht kust kiiret kasvu otsida.
