Börsipäev 23. juuli
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Gapping Up
Moving higher on strong earnings and/or guidance: ARTI +20%, OSTK +6%, TELN +5%, XRX +2.3%, GDT +2.2% (also upgrades from Piper and Smith Barney)... also higher are DDDC +7% (upped to Buy by Blaylock following Verizon deal), TASR +3.3% (convinces Indiana sheriff's office product is safe).... Under $3: EGHT +8% (signs reseller agreement with Zones).
Gapping Down
Down on disappointing earnings/guidance: AMZN -6.2%, ERTS -4.1% (also Deutsche and JP Morgan downgrades), KO -3.4% (also Deutsche downgrade), MSFT -2.9%, PKTR -28% (also First Albany and Janney downgrades), ARDI -27% (also Needham and Roth downgrades), TMTA -16% (also JMP and Soundview downgrades), FDRY -15%, DCLK -14% (also Piper and JP Morgan downgrades), SLTC -11%, VTSS -10.5% (also Unterberg downgrade), HTCH -8.5%, BWLD -6.6%, MUSE -5.6% (also First Albany downgrade).... Other news: FLEX -6.2% (24 mln share offering). -
Siin ka ühe RealMoney kirjutaja mõttekäik:
Cody Willard
MSFT
7/22/04 7:11 PM ET
"Just to close the loop on the MSFT (and then get me outta here, please!) -- the company actually guided higher for both top and bottom line -- business-wise. It's the loss of income from the cash pile that makes it look like a "guide lower". How the market interprets that tomorrow is to be determined. Have a great night.
Long MSFT" -
Peale eilset põrget on USA turud avanemas kerges miinuses. Nasdaq avanemas 0.64% madalamalt. Dow ja S&P avanevad vastavalt 0.05 pt ja 0.11% miinuses.
Uudised maailma suurima tarkvaratootja poolt ei ole investoritele meelejärele. Microsofti (MSFT) teade dividendide väljamaksmisest ei suuda leevendada ootustele mittevastavat tulevikuprognoosi. Aktsia avanemas pea 3% madalamalt võrreldes eilse sulgumishinnaga.
Juba tublisti langenud BEA Systems (BEAS) sai löögi Bersteinilt, kui firma langetas reitingu "market performile."
Negatiivselt mõjuba ka Amazoni (AMZN) prognoositust madalamad tulemused.
Tehnoloogiasektori toetuseta ei suuda indeksid tõenäoliselt langusest välja tulla, mis on tänase surve peamiseks põhjuseks. Viimastel päevadel on vana majanduse aktsiatele mõju avaldanud ka kõrge nafta hind, mis on hoidnud surve all transpordi- ja lennuliinisektorit. Samas on kasu saanud naftatootjad ja hajutatud äritegevusega rafineerijad.
Rev Shark:
Deceive me once, shame on you; deceive me twice, shame on me
-- Proverb
Yesterday's bounce in the indices painted a false picture of the true strength of the market. The move was driven mainly by recovery in a small group of big-cap technology stocks, such as Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq) and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq). Anticipation about major earnings reports that were due after the close helped drive the buying.
Under the surface, things weren't quite as positive. Breadth was solidly negative and the Russell 2000 index of small-caps was down more than 2 points despite a pretty vigorous intraday bounce. Volume was better than average but failed to exceed the levels we saw on the big selloff Tuesday.
The reaction to earnings reports after hours confirmed this market is still unhealthy. Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq), Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq) and Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) all disappointed market participants one way or another. Some will argue that the reports really weren't that bad, but there is no escaping the fact that they did not surpass expectations.
I'm beating a dead horse by pointing out the things that are troubling about this market. What most of us really want to know is what are the signs that a bottom is near. The single-best indicator that a turn is forthcoming would be if stocks stopped going down on bad news. We've seen how little impact good news has had recently that we need to focus on the bad. Once the negatives are fully expected and priced in, the market will begin to shrug it off.
Today should be a particularly good test of whether or not bad news is fully discounted. Amazon and the big-cap Internet sector are probably the best group to watch as an indicator that they are fully washed out. eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq) had a disappointing report but battled back nicely.
Today, Amazon is indicated down about $3 and has some negative analyst comments. If the group can stabilize despite those negatives, we may be ready to consolidate and build a tradeable bottom.
In our quest to identify the possibility of a washed-out market, we have to be careful not to overlook the bigger picture, which remains quite bleak. The major indices are all below key moving averages and are flirting with the lows of the year. The shorts and sellers will be looking to use strength to do their thing. A turn is going to take some substantial effort from the bulls. They need good volume and broad strength if they are going to shift the tide.
We now have most of the major earnings reports out of the way. There are a few more to come but the key leaders are mostly in now. That removes one of the potential catalysts that the bulls have been looking for, and the market is going to have to look to economic and geopolitical news as potential drivers.
Early action is negative in reaction to earnings reports. Asian markets were lower overnight but Europe was showing some bounce. Gold continues to falter and crude is perking back up. We have no major economic news, and don't forget it's a summer Friday and many folks will be heading for the exits early. -
Lehman's Jeff Degraaf's added the following in his morning note:
"Yesterday our screens produced 233 negative volume alerts and only 67 positive volume alerts. As breadth suggested, the internal strength of this market is questionable, with energy the only real standout, though that too is likely to be under modest pressure in the short-run. A violation of 1076 in the SPX counts down to 995. More concerning for us is the chart we produced several months back regarding the fate of the Nikkei during the 1990s in relation to its 200-day. Generally we are not as mystified by the 200-day moving average as the street, believing that it serves as an indication of trend rather than a magical “level”.
During the 1990’s, whenever the 200-day on the Nikkei was violated to the downside, it served as a fairly accurate signal that the bear market had resumed. If this is a classic post bubble environment, the latest violation of the 200-day may very well be a similar warning of an emerging bear. This would be far more academic if we weren’t of the verge of completing a 6-month distributive top formation, but the combination of events is disturbing for those following the history of markets and the history of business cycles. "
