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Börsipäev 28. juuli

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  • USA eelturul on suurema tähelepanu all Time Warner ja Unilever. Negatiivset fooni loob juuni kestvuskaupade tellimuste number ning futuurid viitavad miinuses avanemisele.

    Time Warner (TWX) avaldas teise kvartali majandustulemused, mis olid analüütikute ootustega vastavuses. Hea kasumi tagas Harry Potteri kolmanda osa menu kinodes.

    Toiduainetetootja Unilever (UL) aktsia kukkus Amsterdamis üle 4%. Firma käive on olnud oodatust tunduvalt tagasihoidlikum.

    Venemaal on endiselt löögi all Yukose aktsia, firma võib maksuvaidluse tõttu oma naftatootmise peatada. Vägivallalaine Iraagis ning Yukose segadus on nafta hinna kergitanud üle 42 dollari barreli eest.

    Rev Shark:

    Yesterday, for the first time in over a month, the indices rallied sharply on increased volume and strong breadth. That is the way meaningful rallies almost always start but we aren't out of the woods yet.

    A little prayer at this point certainly couldn't hurt the bulls but what they really need is to produce some solid follow-through. A one-day rally alleviates some of the awful negativity that the market was feeling but it doesn't do anything to change the prevailing trend. In fact a bounce like we saw yesterday often sets up attractive selling and shorting situations.

    Until the bulls are able to do something further the benefit of the doubt continues to lie with the bears. After seeing the market slide so hard for so long our natural inclination is to rush in and embrace the first signs of change but the market is notorious for trapping over-anxious bulls. Early buyers often turn out to be fuel for another downleg when the market turns and they quickly exit their recent buys.

    The market game is all about playing the odds and for now the odds are that the downtrend has not ended. If we see some further technical improvement in the days ahead that will change but we have to be extremely careful about assuming that solid follow-through is inevitable.

    The early action is indicating a negative open for the market. Overseas markets were higher in sympathy with the strong move in the U.S. yesterday. Oil is back over the $42 price point and gold continues its recent struggles.

    We have durable goods numbers coming up at 8:30 a.m. ET. This number has disappointed the last two times and is sure to generate a reaction from the market once again.

    Proceed with caution. The rally yesterday was a pleasant changes for the bulls but in the bigger scheme of things it is fairly meaningless. Keep your fingers crossed and say your prayers but above all else keep those stops tight.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    ZRAN +15% (beats by $0.04, guides above consensus), INTT +15% (reports Q2), GRMN +10% (beats by $0.06, guides Q3 in line, Y04 above consensus), WBSN +8% (beats, guides higher; Raymond James upgrade), CREE +6.3% (beats, guides higher; Soundview upgrade), MNST +5.3% (beats by a penny, guides Q3 in line), TASR +5% (momentum from 19% move yesterday), LVLT +4% (beats by $0.02), TWX +1.7% (beats by $0.04).... Under $3: EGHT +11% (Q1 results; VoIP sales increase 108% sequentially), BKHM +11% (reports Q2).

    Gapping Down

    UTSI -15% (misses, guides lower; Wachovia and First Albany downgrades), SONSE -16% (seeks further brief exception from the Nasdaq Listing Qualifications Panel), AMKR -17% (guides Q3 lower; JP Morgan, Weisel, CIBC downgrades), PCLE -11% (reports JunQ), CECO -11% (guides Q3 revs below consensus;student enrollment below expectations; Bear Stearns and Legg Mason downgrades), WMGI -9% (reports Q2; JP Morgan downgrade), LSCP -5.3% (reports in line), BBOX -5% (misses by $0.11, guides SepQ revs below consensus), PSFT -3.3% (misses by a penny, revs light), CMCSA -2.1% (reports Q2).
  • Esmaspäevane Nasdaqi põhi (ühtlasi 2004.a. põhi) oli 1829 punkti. Praegu oleme üsna selle taseme juurde jõunud.

    Kuid kokkuvõttes on pilt väga vilets - pärast eilset ilusat päeva pole pullid üldse täna näole andnud. Kui päeva lõpuks kosuda ei suudeta on turu olukord lähinädalatel väga raske.
  • O I L! See on see, mis kõigi meele mõruks teeb. F-150 anyone? :)

    sB
  • täiesti offtopic päevatsitaat:

    "If life was fair, Elvis would be alive and all the impersonators would be dead" Johnny Carson
  • Indeksitelt ilusad ümarad põhjad ning tundub, et päev suudetakse vaatamata koledale algusele siiski tugevalt lõpetada. Viiepäevasel graafikul võib Nasdaqil ka double bottomit märgata, mis samuti positiivne märk.
  • Lühikokkuvõte - lõpp hea, kõik hea.

    Väga tumedates toonides alanud börsipäev suudetakse plussis lõpetada - väga hea jätk eilsele ja lõhnab lühiajalise põhja järele.

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