Börsipäev 3. august
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Turg on avanemas kerges miinuses: Dow Jones -0,40%, Nasdaq -0,18% ...
Rev Shark:
"If I am anything, which I highly doubt, I have made myself so by hard work."
-- Sir Isaac Newton.
The stock market regularly produces oversold bounces. They require real effort. When the market trades lower for several weeks in a row like it did in July, there eventually comes a point when the pressure builds to such a degree that a bounce is simply a matter of reflex.
At some point the easy, oversold bounce ends and the real work begins. We are now very close to that point in all of the major indices. If the bulls are really going to keep this upturn moving the hard work starts now.
Take a look at the S&P 500. It topped out at the end of June around the 1145 area and then proceeded to fall in almost a straight line to the 1078 level over the next three weeks. Last week the skid came to an end and we have now had five higher days in a row. That certainly seems encouraging but if we look a bit closer, there are some troubling signs about this bounce.
Foremost is that volume has fallen each of the last five days. That tells us that the big buyers are not willing to buy this move. Moves that come on falling volume simply don't have momentum. There is no great anxiety among buyers to rush into this market as it bounces higher. That can still occur, but the light volume is a bright, glowing warning sign that institutional money is not participating in this move so far.
In addition to the light volume, the other big problem is that the indices are now heading into some major technical overhead. The S&P 500, for example, is right at its 200-day simple moving average of 1107. Some of the folks who bought during the July swoon are now back close to even and the recent dip buyers have some profit to protect. Those two factors make the upward path more difficult. We'll talk some more about overhead resistance later today.
So as we start the day we are looking at a market that has had a light-volume oversold bounce into increasingly heavier overhead resistance. That doesn't mean the market can't keep going higher but it does mean that it is going to require some very hard work by the bulls to keep things moving. They need to increase the intensity of their buying if they are going to overcome the lack of recent momentum and cut through overhead.
Given the technical conditions I don't expect to see the bulls able to move the market much higher at this point. They need to consolidate or even pull back for a couple of days and regroup. Unfortunately they have a very weak foundation now and they need to shore things up if they are going to take this market higher.
In the early going we have a slightly negative open. Crude oil continues to move higher as it reacts to comments from OPEC leaders about the difficulty of increasing production levels. Overseas markets are mixed. We have personal income statistics coming up but not much in the way of news at the moment.
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Gapping Up
CALM +16% (approves 2 mln share stock repurchase, short-covering), ENTU +11% (chosen for US Federal Govt Identity Initiative), MVSN +8.2% (beats by a penny), VISG +8.2% (announces agreement with Siemens to develop 3-D face recognition technology), AMED +7.6% (beats by $0.07, guides Y04 above consensus), SCSS +6.9% (analysts defend stock after 22% drop yesterday), BEAS +5.9% (guides Q2 EPS in line), ADBE +4.4% (positive preannouncement), CECO +3.2% (Jefferies upgrade), COCO +2.5% (Jefferies upgrade).
Gapping Down
LGND -20% (misses by $0.12; end of relationship with independent auditors), DRXR -14% (cut to Sell from Strong Buy at Roth following earnings miss; tgt cut to $4 from $18), PCLN -12% (beats by a penny, but issues mixed guidance), SNIC -9.5% (reports in line EPS, but revs light), VSH -8.9% (misses by $0.02, light on revs), VLCCF -6.4% (reports Q2), TKTX -5.8% (misses by $0.13, lowers Y04 outlook), NTES -5.6% (misses by 3 cents; cut to Source of Funds at ThinkEquity), WOOF -4.1% (Green Equity Investors to sell shares), PLMO -3.8% (JP Morgan downgrade), SOHU -2.8% (in sympathy with NTES). -
Ostsin täna hommikul natuke Select Comfort (SCSS)-i aktsiaid, mis on viimasel ajal koledasti pihta saanud. Tegemist on üllatus-üllatus...vooditootjaga. Esimese positsiooni soetasin praegu aga loodan et turg äkki pakub veel võimalust madalamalt osta.
fwiw,
sB -
Teine firma, mida huviga jälgin on Sunterra Corp (SNRR). Tegemist on suurima pure-play puhkuseosakute müüjaga, mis meenutab mulle oma olemuselt väga Warnaco (WRNC)-t. Hetkel veel ostmas ei ole, kuna põhjalikum eeltöö tegemata.
sB -
Natukene rohkem infot ka Rigel Pharma (RIGL) kohta. Vaatasin, et aktsia LHV TOP 10's.
R112 - II faasi (heinapalavik) katsetused olid positiivsed ning sellest ka eilne ralli. Kui tavaliselt II faasi tulemuste peale aktsiad nii palju ei tõuse, siis antud juhul on tõusu taga ravimi väga head katsetustulemused. Parim kõigist praegu turul olevatest ravimitest ning allergiaravimite puhul on see eriti oluline.
Antud turg on samuti suht suur, $4 miljardit, praegu on RIGL turuväärtus $334 miljonit, vaba raha ca 94 miljonit ($5,15 aktsia kohta). Samas ei tasu ära unustada, et turule toomine võtab veel keskmiselt aega 5 aastat ning enne seda on oodata uudist veel turustuspartneri kohta, mis on samuti väga oluline.
R112 on firma jaoks tähtsaim ravim pipeline's, lisaks R112 on veel 3 ravimit, kuid nende turule toomine võtab veelgi rohkem aega.
Viimasel ajal on biotehnoloogias kasutatud häid uudiseid müümiseks, seega võib RIGL puhul sama asi juhtuda. -
Mina jälle mõned päevad tagasi CALM, kahju et nii vähe ...
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SCSS kinnitab oma Q3 prognoose. Firma turu poolt hinnatav väärtus jääb alla madalaimale 2005. aasta käibeprognoosile.
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11:53 Floor Talk: Some viewing fact that bear Robert Prechter has been rolled out on CNBC as a contrarian signal to buy the market here
Dow -22, Nasdaq -14, S&P -2.1 -
Niipalju siis eilsest tõusust ...
