Börsipäev 5.-6. august

Tänane hommik leiab turud avanemas plussis: Dow Jones ja S&P500 ca +0,15%, Nasdaq ca +0,44%. Eile üle 3% langenud nafta hind on 0,70% tõusnud ja taas ülespoole 43 USD piiri liikunud. Väga olulisi tulemusi täna enne turu avanemist ei ole laekunud, kuid enamus raporteerinud ettevõtteid on suutnud ootusi ületada või inline tulemusi näidata, mis loob positiivse fooni.

Eilselt järelturult:

Mõnda aega tagasi muutustest raamatupidamisarvestuses teatanud ja seetõttu järsu languse läbi teinud Red Hat (RHAT) avaldas oma uute arvestuspõhimõtete järgi korrigeeritud 2002-2004 aasta müügi- ja kasumiaruanded, kardetud suuri muutusi see kaasa ei ole toonud ja aktsia on eelturul +1,89% tõusnud.

United Online (UNTD) aktsia on eelturul koguni -21% languses hoolimata sellest et mais kasumihoiatuse andnud ettevõtte kasum tuli ikkagi üle ootuste (0.25 USD vs. 0.24 USD). Käive jäi siiski ootustele alla ja kärbiti ka järgmise kvartali käibeprognoosi rohkem kui 5% võrra.

Rev Shark asemel Cody Willard täna:

Bulls and bears, longs and shorts, daytraders and long-term investors -- you name the market participant -- are ready for this market to make a break in either direction.

Oil has undoubtedly been a major weight on this market. But to be clear, high oil prices didn't cause the nearly universal spending freeze on enterprise software last quarter. And high oil prices didn't cause the number of cable subscribers to decline last quarter. Today's retail sales numbers, which appear to be just OK, were perhaps muted because of consumers' pain at the pump.

Regardless of the near-term economic effects of skyrocketing oil prices, they've certainly been a big factor in the incredible shrinking P/E multiples in this market. Take a look at a chart of both the price of oil and the Nasdaq. The inverse movements of the two are striking. As oil has continued its ascent toward a 5-handle on crude barrels, market participants are rightly concerned about the sustainability of the economy's expansion over the intermediate term.

Somewhat surprisingly, given that oil prices have little or no direct effect on the fundamentals of the sector, the single biggest battlefield out there remains the semiconductor sector. The bears are certain that these companies have no chance of making the next few quarters' estimates, although they've thought that for the past two years when oil was lower. But participants who were bulls on these stocks have lost their faith in these companies' ability to earn what they say they will.

And plenty of would-be buyers continue to sit on their hands, worried about oil prices -- more so than rising interest rates, the threat of terrorism, the coming election or the blip that the economy might or might not have seen in June. I think those high oil prices are keeping a lid on this market and keeping investors from stepping up to the plate and awarding a more "reasonable" P/E, given the many strong numbers of last quarter and lots of strong guidance.

Will oil undermine this economic expansion? Have the chip companies already seen the their fundamentals top out? Will the continued pressure weighing down the stocks in the market bring on some sort of reflexivity-based recession? Good questions, and it'd be a lot easier to answer them with a "no" if oil would reverse. Oil in the $50s would have further ramifications on multiples, even if it doesn't immediately hurt the economic expansion.

I'm no oil expert, but as I've cited before, a market is usually much closer to a top than a bottom when capacity and supply constraints are all anybody can talk about and are spiking prices. Sure, it could be "different this time." Then again, I remember when the "New Economy" was supposed to make things "different" back in the late 1990s and 2000, too.

G. B. Smith:

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