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Börsipäev 19. august

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • USA futuurid on kerges miinuses ning endiselt peamine põhjus negativismiks on kõrge nafta hind, mis kerkis Londonis 47,75 dollarini barreli eest.

    Google (GOOG) IPO hinnaks kujunes 85 dollarit ning seega on suurim aktsiate esmaemissioon  tehnoloogiasektoris õnnestunud. Firma müüb emissiooni käigus 19,6 miljonit aktsiat koguväärtusega 1,67 miljardit dollarit. Eelturul aktsiaga veel ei kaubelda, kuid turu avanemisel on võimalik aktsiat juba soetada.

    Norteli (NT) aktsia kerkis eelturul püle 5%, firma kavatseb kaotada 3500 töökohta ning alandada sellega oma tegevuskulusid 35%.

    Töötu abiraha taotlejate arv oli eelmisel nädalal 331 000, mis on oodatud 335 000 veidi parem näitaja.

    Rev Shark:

    The easy thing to do is breath a sigh of relief, embrace the rally we have seen so far this week and declare that a new uptrend is now inevitable. Market participants have been starved for some positive action and are very eager to declare that the worst is behind us. The bulls were even able to shrug off stubbornly high crude oil prices as we pranced merrily higher yesterday.

    Certainly there are a number of positives to be found in this bounce. Downtrend lines have been broken in all the major indices, financials and biotechnology stocks are acting well and are over their 50-day moving average, and breadth has been extremely positive. Those things all bode well for the contention that the bottom is in.

    However, there are a number of reasons to doubt how easy the upward journey may be. First, the light volume is troubling. The bulls will tell you it's August and lots of people are on vacation, so we should expect it to be low. That isn't how it works. You have to consider volume compared to most recent levels and it is still very light.

    I run a 30-day simple moving average of volume and the levels of the past three days have yet to exceed that level. Big institutional buyers have not stepped up to embrace this bounce. Without that sort of support the foundation for further upside is weak and we can crumble quickly.

    Big volume increases are what give substance and prove conviction. Certainly the market can continue to move higher but unless big buyers are showing some interest we have to maintain our doubt about how easy it is going to be.

    I would have been happy to do more buying yesterday but rejected many possible charts simply because the volume was lighter than average. It is that discipline that has served me well over time and which I will continue to exercise until I have good reason not to. It doesn't bother me at all that I'm still fairly lightly invested. The best high-odds entry points have yet to come.

    In addition to the troubling volume issue, the indices have some tough overhead supply to deal with as well. Many market participants are well under water and will be looking to exit if they can cut their losses to some extent. That inclination, coupled with the lack of vigorous volume, should give you at least a little niggling doubt about how easily and quickly this market will march higher.

    Yesterday's news that al-Sadr was working out a deal with the governing counsel in Iraq helped produce an upward spike. This morning Reuters is reporting that the deal is dead. It was a fairly flimsy excuse for a rally to begin with so I'm not sure it matters all that much.

    Oil continues its relentless move higher and is now closing in on the $48 price level. The Yukos situation in Russia is still a major problem and there are few signs that the pressure will relent.

    If you aren't already tired of hearing talk about Google (GOOG:Nasdaq), today should definitely send you over the edge. The stock is priced at $85 and begins trading today.

    Overseas markets were perky in sympathy with the U.S. We have weekly unemployment claims coming up, which should produce a jiggle or two.

    The ball is in the bulls' court and they need to prove that the skeptics' volume concerns are of little consequence. We shall see soon enough.

     

     

  • Gapping Up

    CAI +12.4% (beats by $0.11, beats on revs; raises Q1 and Y05 guidance; RBC upgrade), HOTT +8.7% (reports JulQ; announces stock buyback).... AMZN +1.4% (to buy China's biggest Internet retailer) Asian Internet stocks up in sympathy: CHINA +7.4%, SOHU +4.1%, SINA +4.0%..... Other News: MYL +5.8% (FTC grants early termination of waiting period for Mylan stock purchase plan by Icahn), NT +5.6% (annouces restructuring plan, updates restatement; announces preliminary, unaudited results for Q1, Q2), AFFX +3.8% (Piper upgrade), MANT +2.8% (wins USAF contract).

    Gapping Down

    SNPS -29% (beats by a penny, but guides Q4 below consensus), down in sympathy with SNPS: MENT -10.6%, LAVA -8.6%.... Other news: DV -10% (reports JunQ; downgrades from JP Morgan, Legg Mason and Piper), ROST -4.7% (downgrades from Piper, Jefferies, Wells Fargo after co reported yesterday), CIEN -4.1% (reports JulQ, disappointing guidance), QLTI -2.9% (cut to Source of Funds from Buy at ThinkEquity).
  • Mulle pakuks huvi, kui palju üldse aktsiaid märgiti. See, et olemasolevate aktsionäride müüdavate aktsiate kogust vähendati, näitab ainult seda, et märkimisaktiivsus oli rämedalt madal.
  • Kas kuskilt oleks võimalik näha ka nafta hinna(crude oil) liikumist reaalajas?
  • Metatrader pakub näiteks nafta hinda, suuremaid valuutapaare, usa suuremaid indekseid.
    pane googlisse otsing "metatrader" või "download (free) metatrader"
    tasuta on.
    kui mingi aja (mõni kuu) pärast ei lase enam sisse, võta fail menüüst "open account", muuda paar tähte ja saad kohe uuesti kasutada.
    crude oil on tähise CLU4 all seal.
  • LHV Traderi all valige väärtpbaeriks QM ja väärtpaberi tüübiks futuur ning reaalajas naftahind ongi Teie ees.
  • GOOG siis juba täie hooga kauplemas (tunnike küll oodatust hiljem) ning praeguseks $100 tase juba ületatud. Äkki võtab isegi esialgse pakkumisvahemiku välja?

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