Börsipäev 24. august
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Gapping Up
SANM +3.9% (names a new CFO, Thomas Weisel upgrade), CAT +2.3% (Goldman upgrade), OPSW +8.2% (gets $50 mln from deal with EDS -- WSJ), SYNA +5.2% (Soundview upgrade), OATS +4.6% (Michael Dell acquired 18% of OATS convertible bonds - LA Times), BCRX +3.6% (receives orphan drug designation).... Under $3: ECGI +13% (authorizes share buyback plan), EGHT +11% (adds Fry's Electronics to its list of Packet8 retailers), CBMX +5% (announces Defense award for nanotech fuel cells).
Gapping Down
POSS -34% (announces prelim AiMI study results; First Albany downgrade, firm says data seen as a worst-case outcome), SAFM -15% (misses single estimate, reduces guidance), UAIR -4.2% (US Airways' pilots view options as stalemate, pressures carrier - WSJ), ESMC -2.4% (profit taking after 41% gain yesterday), FLIR -2.2% (Needham downgrade), BRCM -1.5% (estimates cut below consensus at CSFB). -
USA turgudel on võetud nafta hinna langemist vastu võetud positiivselt ning futuurid viitavad väikesele plussile päeva alguses.
USA kestvuskaupade müük juulis peaks täna avaldatava statistika kohaselt olema kuu tagusega võrreldes protsendi võrra väiksem. Päeva jooksul avaldatakse ka juulis alustatud uute majade ehituste arvu statistika.
Cisco (CSCO) on investorite tähelepanu all seoses 2005 fiskaalaastaks planeeritud optsiooniplaani avalikustamisega. Optsioonide aluseks olevate aktsiate osakaal kogu aktsiate arvust on 2,34%, samas kui sellel aastal oli vastav number 1,98%. Igatahes lahustab see aktsia kohta teenitavat kasumit ning on lisakuluallikas.
Rev Shark:
The most significant issue affecting this market right now is the fact that it is the waning days of summer and folks are more worried about enjoying their vacations than what the stock market is doing. Volume has dropped to the lowest levels of the year and we seem to have little else to drive us other than the fluctuations in the price of crude oil.
The tough thing about low-volume trading is that it is much more susceptible to quick spikes, sharp drops and random movements. Program trading asserts even more influence than normal and big funds can push the market around if they are so inclined. When volume is light it is much easier to squeeze shorts or scare traders out of long-side trades.
Market participants are always trying to impose logic and order on the market. We search for cause-and-effect relationships and attempt to predict what will happen based on the assumption that rational behavior will take place. It is always a difficult task to predict market behavior but in this sort of environment the market tends to act even more irrationally than usual.
There is so little other news out there right now that the market is almost completely correlated to the movement in crude oil price. Prices are a bit softer again this morning and that is helping to spike up futures a bit in the early going. Overseas markets were generally higher on the softening in oil and gold is trading down in part for the same reason.
Technically the market looks very vulnerable to a pullback here. We have what is called a "bearish wedge" where we have rallied on increasingly lighter volume. This pattern can lead to a sharp pullback once profit-taking and selling kicks in. There is little support until we are back at the recent lows of the year.
For now oil trumps all but at some point the market is likely to disconnect from that driver and surprise a few folks. Also, the Iraqis seem to be making progress in dealing with the Najaf shrine standoff and that may have a favorable effect on the market if it is resolved.
However, above all else it is the end of summer and disinterest is the dominate theme.
Gary B. Smith:
