Börsipäev 30. august
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Ned Davis vähendas aktsiate osakaalu portfellis 84-85% pealt 58-59%'ni. Ned Davis'e analüüse loevad tuhanded fondijuhid ning selle aasta jooksul on ettevõte kaks korda vähendanud aktsiate osakaalu (jaanuaris ja aprillis) ning siis on ka indeksid lühiajalise tipu teinud.
Lugu ise siin:
Ned Davis Pulls Back
Ned Davis Research has won a daily place in thousands of fund managers' e-mail boxes with its long record of cogent market commentary, proprietary quantitative analysis and huge array of indicators.
Since March 2003, the firm has also been putting individuals' money where its models are, through a mutual fund under the Gabelli Asset Management umbrella called Ned Davis Research Asset Allocation.
The fund uses Ned Davis' system for comparing stocks, bonds and cash to allocate funds among those asset classes. For most of the fund's existence (having launched just after the monster 2003 rally began), the fund has had an overweight stock position and little cash. Since inception, the fund is up about 16%.
In recent weeks, the firm's models counseled a steep reduction in equity exposure, indicating stocks had become a good deal less attractive.
Geoffrey Raymond, co-portfolio manager of the fund, says its stock allocation has gone from 84% or 85% to a recent 58% to 59%, just about at what the fund considers a neutral 60% commitment. That's the lowest equity allocation to date. The bond-versus-cash model, incidentally, continues to recommend maximum long bond duration, quite in contrast to anecdotal bond-market sentiment.
Raymond says the model had turned negative on stocks, but the managers have made the discretionary decision -- which he says is rare -- to keep a neutral position, on the idea that the market could strengthen soon if some looming uncertainties lift.
He views the market as occupying an "in-between period" where there are no "fat pitches." Within the equity portfolio, value stocks are now favored over growth.
Robin Carpenter, who runs Carpenter Analytical Services, flagged the reduction in the Ned Davis fund's stock exposure through statistical market-sensitivity screening. He notes that the two prior times this year the fund sharply curtailed its stock holdings, in January and April, coincided with short-term market tops. -
USA turud on avanemas miinuses, vaatamata mitmele suurele liitumistehingule. Selle nädala märksõnaks on augusti tööjõuraport, oodatakse 150 000 uue töökoha tekkimise raporteerimist (vahemik 50 000-300 000). Teiseks tähtsündmuseks on New Yorgis toimuv vabariiklaste kongress.
USA residentide sissetulekut kasvasid juulis kahe aasta madalaimas tempos ehk 0,1%, samas kasvasid tarbijakulutused 0,8%.
Eravalduses olev Cerberus Capital Managment ostab kinnisvarafirma LNR Property (LNR), lepingu väärtuseks on 3.8 miljardit dollarit, aktsia kohta saavad investorid 7% preemiat.
veitsi pangandushiid UBS on jõudmas kokkuleppele Charles Schwab`i (SCH) SoundView Capital Market üksuse ostmiseks 265 miljoni dollari eest.
Rev Shark:
The big news this week is the Republican convention, but even a love-fest is unlikely to increase the light volume plaguing the market recently. The general belief is that the market has a strong preference for President Bush, but it is still too early and too uncertain for the election to have any major impact on the market. The convention this week is unlikely to change that.
There is some other news due out this week that may have some impact on the indices. Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) is scheduled to present an update of its third-quarter progress on Thursday, and the August jobs report is due out on Friday. Both events have some market-moving potential.
Oil will continue to be an important market driver, but we are starting to see the direct correlation between its movement and the indices weaken a bit. Nonetheless, in a slow market environment it will continue to be a factor.
We have some potential drivers out there, but the most important factor for market participants to keep in mind is the weak volume, along with seasonality. We are entering what is historically the weakest time of the year for the market, and the lack of volume has left the recent move in the market without any significant technical support.
Many bulls are quick to shrug off the lightest volume levels of the year as irrelevant, but that is a very dangerous position to take. Light volume tells us that the big institutional buyers are on the sidelines and will not serve as support for the market. The likelihood of quick spikes and random movement is extremely high in this environment.
An additional problem for the indices is that this low-volume bounce has taken us to areas where there is an increasing level of resistance. The serial bottom callers who were buying back at the end of July are now back to even and may be happy to move to the sidelines with their capital intact. There is some very tough overhead, and given the precarious base and the market's low volume it is a tougher obstacle than usual.
We have a negative start to the week as oil prices tick up and there is little other news of immediate consequence. If you are going to trade, quickness counts. This is not a market that can be easily trusted, so keep those time horizons very short.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
TSRA +6.6% (raises guidance), LNR +6% (to be acquired by Cerberus Capital), NXTL +2.2% (CIBC upgrade), OSIS +1.5% (mentioned in Barron's), BSMD +7.4%.... Under $3: PFSW +20% (signs new, large national brand name client), AATK +15% (co and Leviton sign new OEM supply agreement for Zone Cabling), WHT +8% (acknowledges receipt of the unsolicited offer made by Coeur d'Alene Mines).
Gapping Down
ACDO -27% (reports in-line, but cuts Y05 outlook), TZOO -5% (negative Barron's article), CURE -3.6% (in sympathy with ACDO) ... Under $3: MANU -6.6% (co's president let go). -
12:44 Floor Talk
We are hearing that an analyst at a Boston firm has bet its head trader $100 that he can't drink a bottle of Tabasco sauce. The contest is scheduled for the close, and we'll provide full details as they become available
See nädal tõotab tulla üks aasta igavamaid,
sB @ vacation
