Börsipäev 16. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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USA futuurid on plussis ning viitavad turgude positiivsele avanemisele. Inflatsiooninumbrid olid oodatust paremad, kuid Norteli müügihoiatus oli turule negatiivseks üllatuseks.
Töötu abiraha taotlejate arv kerkis nädalaga 16 000 võrra 333 000, samas oodati isegi numbrit 341 000. Tarbijahinnad kerkisid augustis 0,1%, ilma energia ja toiduainete hinnatõusuta oli tõus samuti 0,1%, samas oodati 0,2% tõusu.
Norteli (NT) aktsia on eelturul üle 6% miinuses, ettevõtte kolmanda kvartali tulud jäävad alla teise kvartali omadele ning kogu aasta tulude kasv jääb 5-6% juurde.
Credit Suisse tõstis Nokia (NOK) reitingut tasemele neutraalne, samal ajal langetati Qualcommi (QCOM) aktsia reitingut. Piper Jaffray alandas Lawson Software (LWSN) reitingut, peamiskes probleemiks on kahtlused teise kvartali prognooside täitmise osas.
Rev Shark:
Great success in the stock market requires two traits that seem quite contradictory at first glance. Successful traders must be capable of being very decisive and moving with great confidence but they also have to be able to change their minds very quickly if it looks like their initial decision was a bad one or if conditions change.
Unfortunately human nature is such that it is difficult for most people to embody both of these traits. Those who are decisive often have a hard time admitting mistakes and going in a different direction while those who are capable of changing their minds quickly lack the sort of conviction that allows them to profit big when they are correct.
A good example of someone who is both very decisive and quick to adjust when he feels he is wrong is Jim Cramer. Many readers struggle with the quick swings in Jim's thinking. It seems that one day he is aggressively bullish and that things are going straight up and then the next day he is bearish and sounds like the world is coming to an end.
Those quick swings from one firm opinion to a totally different one can be unsettling to readers but it is exactly that trait that helped make Jim's hedge fund a great success. When he made a decision there was no uncertainty about it. He would act on it aggressively and with great vigor. However, he had no qualms about quickly reversing himself if he thought he was wrong or it conditions changed.
The ability to make a clear decision, act on them boldly and then change your mind seems almost schizophrenic at times but it is a key element in the personality of great traders.
We are at a juncture in the market now where those personality traits are particular important. The market is at a point where it could easily roll over or make another leg up, but there are good arguments to be made for either scenario. The easy thing is to sit back and do very little. The great trader, on the other hand, is inclined to make a market call and then is prepared to change his mind should things develop to show that he is wrong.
My inclination now is to be bearish. I believe the news flow is problematic and the technical picture is vulnerable. However, I have no qualms about changing my mind and switching to a more bullish posture should I see good reasons to do so.
Learning how to be decisive and act aggressively while maintaining the ability to change your mind quickly is a difficult balancing act but one that is central to great success in trading. Keep it in mind as you contemplate the market today.
We have a flat open at the moment. Overseas markets were lackluster and crude oil is trading up again this morning. CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. ET and may cause a blip or two on the screens. Other than that it is pretty quiet out there.
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Gapping Up
TBUS +11% (just before yesterday's close, co announced preliminary orders for new system), PDLI +7% (co and Roche to develop Zenapax for Asthma, PLDI to get $17.5 mln upfront pmt), MAXM +7% (hearing short-squeeze), ASE +7% (receives $23.2 mln order from US govt), CGA +20% (British steel producer reports results), RIMM +2.1% (introduces new BlackBerry 7100v in Europe and Australasia).
Gapping Down
NT -8% (reduces Q3 revenue outlook), SWFT -10.2% (guides lower; Bear Stearns downgrade), MGAM -7.8% (Pru sees high liklihood co will miss SepQ), LWSN -7.3% (guides lower; Baird and Piper downgrades), OVTI -4.6% (CFO resigns), VTSS -3.7% (announces private offering), CYBX -3.6% (spurns ANSI offer), MERQ -3.3% (Piper downgrade), MLHR -3.3% (reports AugQ; in-line guidance), LU -2.1% (in sympathy with NT), QCOM -1.6% (CSFB downgrade). -
Turu sentiment tundub olevat selline, et ..."kõik ju teavad, et kohe tuleb langus, kõik märgid(?) seda näitavad ja nii on ju kogu see aasta olnud". Langus tulebki, sest kõik seda ootavad ja vastavalt reageerivadki. Iseküsimus on, kui sügav see saab olema. Ise prognoosin, et eelmistest põhjadest allapoole ei minda ja siis juba uue hooga ülesse. Põhimõtteliselt olen seda meelt, et jätkub üles-alla liikumine, aga edaspidi kerge suunaga ülespoole.
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Siuksed prognoosid mulle meeldivad :)
Ise ennustan, et keskmine inimene tulevikus hingab, sööb ja magab, kerge suunaga ainevahetusele ja teiste inimestega kokkupuutumisele...
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Et siis jääme lühikeste positsioonide katmise põrget ootama?
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Arvan,et septembri kuus on tal veel võimalusi uute põhjade tegemiseks,sest aasta lõpu 3 viimast kuud ootan turu tugevust.Üldse on selliste kollektiivsete asjadega nii,et kui kõik ootavad mingit sündmust,siis pahatihti ei kipugi nii minema.Turuosalised tahavad teineteist ju üle mängida...
