Börsipäev 17. september
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USA futuurid said toetuse Fordilt, autotootja teatas oodatust tugevamatest prognoosidest. Pooljuhtide aktsiatele peaks mõju avaldama book to bill määr (näitab uute ja täidetud tellimuste suhet), mis oli oodatust nõrgem.
Ford (F) teatas, et tõstab kasumiootusi aktsia kohta 10 sendi võrra tuues välja autode hinna tõusu ja finantsüksuse jätkuvat tugevust. Aktsia on eelturul 3,8% plussis.
Telekomisektoris on jätkuvalt tugevad Nokia (NOK) ja Ericsson (ERICY), ühele neist on langemas Cingulari 1 miljardi dollari suurune võrgutellimus.
Pooljuhtide sektorit mõjutab book to bill määr, mis langes oodatust rohkem ehk tasemele 1, mis näitab et kasv on lõppenud ning tööstusharu on tsükli tipus.
Cody Willard:
The markets have been in a pretty steady and aggressive uptrend since mid-August. Surprisingly, not even Intel's (INTC:Nasdaq) warning on its midquarter update was able to derail the rally, and it was coincident with the warnings from NSM and just about every other semi company in the past couple weeks that the rally really found its legs.
The market had obviously priced in a whole lot of bad news from its January highs to its August lows, and there's a chance that as long as things don't deteriorate fundamentally from here, we could see a major spike into year-end.
There are quite a few technical, sentiment/crowd-positioning, and fundamental cross-currents out there, which can help guide us in determining our direction from here. Unfortunately, because they are cross-currents, there's no clear trend or easy answer. Technically, we've just had this major, aforementioned rally for the last month. Stocks, especially earlier this week, were probably a little bit overextended and tired. The last two days, with Wednesday's ugly action and yesterday's reversal that left things flattish at the close, help to alleviate some of that extension. Not sure you'd call the action consolidation, but it was certainly at least a rest.
Sentiment and positioning among market participants, especially in technology, is just a battlefield. On the one hand, there's the perma-bears and newbie bears that are convinced that the economy is headed to hell in a handbasket, and that the forward estimates from here are a joke. Few of the traders I know covered have much of anything during the August collapses -- and in fact, they are now using strength to add to those shorts.
On the other hand, the bulls and independents couldn't help but note the big pops in stock prices that followed the warnings from Broadcom and others in the last couple weeks. Most of these folks are convinced that, because of the reaction to those warnings, the worst has been more than priced in and that it's time to be long and strong. They've been fighting the bears by taking the other side of the trade and buying/chasing strength.
I think, at least in tech, I'll refer to my column from Wednesday as a snapshot of how I see the fundies right now.
Like I said, that leaves us with a lot of cross-currents and a tricky market at this juncture. I can easily see both sides of the arguments -- "we're going to spike from here right to year-end" vs. "we're due for at least another pullback." I was a pretty aggressive buyer at points this summer, including during the August collapse, and I've got a nice slug of long-dated calls, as well as my core long positions.
Most of the calls were slightly in the money or slightly out of the money when I bought them. A good bit of my calls are now really starting to kick in as they get further into the money, working to make my long exposure increase as stocks rise.
I've shorted common against some of those calls to lock in some profits, and I've trimmed down and even sold a laggard position or two entirely as this rally has gotten extended. I'm certainly not going to chase things here, and I don't plan on being a buyer of weakness in general anytime soon.
If the market were to give us a real pullback before September closes out, then I'd likely be looking to buy. For now, I think I'll continue to be part of the problem of this low-volume year, as I don't expect to do much trading in the near term.
Gary B. Smith:
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Üks huvitav tabel 21st century alert uudiskirjast:
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Gapping Up
WLDA +18% (signs agreement to ship cargo between Germany and China), F +3.6% (guides Q3 higher), IMOS +10% (reports Aug revs of $39 mln), HDTV +8% (WR Hambrecht initiates with $11 target), TEK +8% (beats handily), GNSS +6.3% (WR Hambrecht initiates with $19 target), EGHT +6% (VoIP offerings now available through Ingram Micro and Navarre), TRID +4.4% (WR Hambrecht initiates with $19 target), GMAI +4.3% (issues Q1 guidance), VRTY +3.1% (reports AugQ), TXN +2.6% (announces $1 bln buyback and dividend increase), SOHU +2.5% (launches joint English Website), BOBJ +2.1% (selected by Rural/Metro Corp).
Gapping Down
QCOM -1.9% (guides higher, but reviewing ongoing Accounting Method for royalties), FLML -28% (Merrill downgrade after co announces BMY will terminate its development of Basulin), TTEK -14% (lowers SepQ guidance), MKSI -10% (guides Q3 lower; Needham downgrade), NTBK -9% (warns, Raymond James downgrade), LEIX -8% (prices secondary offering at $24), ICST -7% (guides lower; Piper downgrade), SEPR -3% (announces proposed $500 mln senior subordinated notes offering), CSCO -1.3% (Lehman downgrade). -
Tänane "aktsia radarile" on Qualcomm (QCOM), ettevõte küll tõstis prognoose, kuid teatas ka raamatupidamise ülevaatamisest. Viimane uudis kaalub esimest üles ja QCOM on koguni -6% miinuses.
Selle peale tulid ka Nasdaqi futuurid (NQ) allapoole ning seega tasub QCOMi tänaseid liikumisi lälgida, kui siit veel alla minnakse, võib kogu turgu alla tirida.
