Börsipäev 28. sept - Dell ja Google
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Turg möödetuna S&P500 indeksaktsiaga SPY leidis veidi toetust 50 päeva liikuva keskmise pealt aga trend on hetkel alla. Futuurid on täna hommikul üllatuslikult veidi plussis.
Peamiseks põhjuseks on ilmselt Dell Computer (DELL), mille CEO Kevin Rollins kinnitas Bloombergi vahendusel kolmanda kvartali prognoose ("..We haven't seen any reason to change that number and so from our standpoint that's kind of still holding on..corporate spending patterns had not been affected in recent months by higher oil prices..")Google (GOOG) lisab ka oma panuse - kolm suurt maja (JP Morgan, CSFB ning TWP) alustasid kõik täna firma aktsiate katmist positiivsete (!) reitingutega.
Pooljuhtide indeksaktsia SMH kukkus läbi $30 taseme, mis ka ei ole kindlasti hea märk. Päeva alguses näitasid pooljuhid tugevust, tõstes SMH isegi korraks üle $30, kuid kerkiv naftahind tegi oma töö.
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AGIX anyone? :)
sB -
see olnuks nüüd hea optsioonistrateegia:
AG edwards ytles reedel: Strongly positive data, particularly from CART-2, could move the shares
considerably higher (see our "payoff table", which appears in the body of our
note). Failure in both trials could send the shares to the low single digits. -
Meie ei teinud seekord aga Kristjan tegi küll. Kuidas läks?
sB -
AGIX liigub võimsalt tõesti. Aga see kuidas positsiooniga läheb, sõltub paljuski tänasest liikumisest, päris nii suurt tõusu ei oodanud.
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Väga hea. Ma jätan ka parimad ideed enda teada alati:)
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Ega seal midagi väga saladust pole, strateegia seisnes stoki ostmises ja 4x suurema koguse (alusvara suhtes) $40 callide välja kirjutamises. Väga kõrge risk, seetõttu ei hakanud seda ka varem välja tooma. Seega ma oleks väga rõõmus, kui AGIX eriti üle $40 ei ralliks.
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ilus mäng jah, Feuerstein rääkis aktsiast 2 nädalt tagasi, et kui tulevad positiivsed andmed ,siis duubeldab hinnas.
http://www.thestreet.com/_rms/comment/adamfeuerstein/10182578.html -
Ei möödu päevagi, kui pooljuhtidesektorist hoiatusi ei kuuleks.
Juba teist korda sel kuul langetas käibeootusi Cypress Semiconductor (CY), põhjendades seda nõrkusega mitmetel turgudel. Näiteks võrgulahendustes ning autodes kasutatavate kiipide tootja on eelturul üle 3% miinuses ning kaupleb lähedal aasta põhjadele.
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Turgudele on endiselt suureks rõhujaks nafta hind, mis kerkis täna üle 50 dollari taseme. Saudi Araabia otsus tõsta päevast toodangumahtu 9,5 miljonilt barrelilt 11 miljonile alandas hinda väga vähe. Futuurid indikeerivad siiski kerget avanemist plussis.
Metatalli ja kaevandussektorite aktsiad jätkasid Euroopas tõusu ning seda tänu Hiina poolsetele positiivsetele kommentaaridele 2004. aasta majanduskasvu osas. Kardetud jahenemist ei ole toimunud ning kohalik statistikaamet ootab 8 kuni 9 protsendist majanduskasvu (varasem ootus oli 7%).
Google (GOOG) aktsia on peale positiivseid sõnumeid investeerimispankade visionääridelt eelturul üle 2% plussis. Credit Suisse ootab 12 kuu perspektiivis aktsia hinnasihiks 145 dollarit.
Rev Shark:
Patience is probably one of the most underrated attributes of successful traders and investors. Many make the mistake of characterizing inaction as weakness. The reality is that staying calm, objective and patient requires far more strength and effort than taking action as the mood strikes.
Those of us who watch the market closely are tempted by a constant flow of possible trades but it is the true professional who can sit and wait to act until conditions are ripe and the right trade presents itself. Like water upon a rock, patience is the ultimate strength.
The present market environment is practically begging us to be patient. There is no market leadership other than oil stocks, the technical conditions are very poor, we are at the height of weak seasonality, and there is little positive fundamental news about either the economy or individual stocks. The biggest positive the bulls have going for them is that things look so gloomy that we may actually see an increase in pessimism, which has been a rare thing in this market for some time.
The chart of the S&P 500 presents a pretty clear picture of where this market is at. We hit a top in February and have been downtrending ever since. We had some sharp V-shaped bounces in April, June and September but we have failed to crack the downtrend line. The most recent attempt to break out was a classic failure right at the downtrend line. The inability to keep the momentum going brought in the sellers and profit-takers and we are not trending back down toward the bottom of the range. We have some support at the 50-day simple moving average but there isn't much else on the charts that would lead us to believe that we will quickly find support.
We do have the end of the month coming up and the 50-day moving average support so a bounce to wrap up the third quarter isn't out of the question. However, don't talk yourself into believing this is a healthy market. There are a lot of problems both technically and fundamentally. The key is to stay patient as these problems work themselves out.
We have a slightly positive open shaping up but oil is back over the $50 a barrel mark and news flow is lackluster. Overseas markets struggled, with oil and gold stocks showing relative strength. We have the consumer confidence number coming up at 10 a.m. EDT, which will likely cause a reaction but there's nothing much else on the agenda.
My thanks to Cody for filling in once again on short notice. I'm definitely a bit weary of dealing with hurricanes and trying not to let it affect my market perceptions. My parents' home was badly damaged by the last storm and will take months to repair. I am concerned about their well-being but I remind myself that just like the market, life works best if you stay patient and approach your problems methodically. Things have a way of working out for the best if you keep your wits about you and continue to plod along.
Gary B. Smith:
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Ma olen muidugi loll, aga ma ei saa aru miks kuulub ühe osana võidukasse strateegiasse 40 callide väljakirjutamine?
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Briefing.com annab üpris negatiivse vaatenurga CY hoiatusele:
Cypress revising its Q3 outlook again shouldn't necessarily come as a shock to the street as semiconductor companies continue to point to inventory concerns as recently as last week during the Bank of America Investor Conference in San Francisco. The advent of this announcement coming this close to the the beginning of earnings season suggests more semiconductor companies will be at risk to either preannounce (we have 2 days until the end of the quarter), come in at the low end of guidance in October and provide a soft Q4 outlook. Finally, Cypress points to "sustained weakness in turns across multiple markets" as the primary catalyst for this development. Essentially, "turns" business is orders requested and delivered in the same quarter, which suggests there is no immediate need by CY's customers to burn off excess inventory in the channel. -
Gapping Up
AGIX +78% (announces positive interim results from CART-2), OXGN +28% (announces positive cancer data), NABI +22% (announces positive clinical data), WLDA +18% (files with DOT to Link Silicon Valley and China; up in sympathy: AIRT +4.6%, VEXP +12%), DRXR +12.5% (announces $5 mln Homeland Security follow-on order), TOPT +8% (highlighted in InvestorsBusinessDaily), OVTI +4.6% (introduces 5-megapixel CMOS image sensor for camera phones), UTEK +4% (Merrill upgrade), GOOG +2.1% (initiated by JP Morgan, CSFB, Thomas Weisel), NXTL +2.1% (to repurchase NXTP and NXTL shares held by MOT).... Under $3: NXXI +15%, IMNR +15% (reports positive HIV data), GNBT +13% (enters into Collaborative Research and Development Agreement).
Gapping Down
CY -2.8% (guides lower again), CPN -8% (prices 89 mln share secondary at $2.75), ADTN -8% (Morgan Stanley downgrade), YAKC -6% (guides sales lower), NIHD -3% (6.2 mln share offering prices at $40.75), DHB -2.8%, AVCI -2% (guides lower; downin sympathy: JNPR -2.2% (also Friedman Billings downgrade), TNS -2% (prices secondary offering at $20), NSTK -1.5% (profit taking from 70% move yesterday). -
40 callide kirjutamine on vist võiduka strateegia pisut vähem edukas osa.
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Tundub, et ka see strateegia osutus edukaks.
sB -
Nafta hind peabki 21.sajandil kõrge olema.Naftavarud vähenevad.Nõudlus on suurenev (näiteks Hiina).
Hetkel ei ole alternatiivi naftale.Kui kapital on majanduse vereringe,siis nafta on vere punalibled. -
Kristjan on ikka väga osav nende asjadega, peaks ka minema seminarile :)
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USA tarbijausaldus langes 96,8 punktile oodati 98,7 punkti.
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Vihje - eile enne uudist maksis AGIX $40 call 1.30, täna pärast aktsia 60% tõusu maksab see koguni ... $1.55. Ja päeva lõpuks ilmselt kukub veel. Põhjuseks maagiline kaubeldav volatiilsus (implied volatility).
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40 callide väljakirjutamises ongi point. Muidu poleks see strateegia, vaid gambling tõusu peale.
Muide, callide väljakirjutamine, sisuliselt shortimine, ei kohusta neid tagasi ostma enne expiremist, jah? Või kohustab? -
kohustust tagasi osta pole, ei enne expiremist ega expiremise ajal.. kui ta aga peaks expiremise ajal rahas olema, siis seda kasutatakse.. nii et sa oled kohustatud aktsiaid müüma.. kuigi reaalselt seda optsiooni enne expiremist ostja ei kasutaks, siis põhimõtteliselt on tal see õigus igal ajal..
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Kas TZOO läks lõpuks uhkusest upakile?
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Aga kuidas kaitseb 40 calli väljakirjutamine t6usu vastu, ma aru ei saa. Minu arvates v6ib 40 calli väljakirjutamist gamblinguks nimetada.
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Gambling jah. TASR callidega saab ka teha.
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Graafik, loe täpsemalt. Ilma 40 callide väljakirjutamiseta aktsiate ostmine oleks olnud gambling tõusule. Ainult 40 callide väljakirjutamine oleks olnud gambling mitte langusele / mitte kuigi suurele tõusule. Mõlemad koos on strateegia :)
Ardo
