Börsipäev 29. sept - SPY põrkas, pooljuhid ikka surve all
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Turg (SPY) suutis eile jälle 50 päeva liikuva keskmise pealt põrgata ning ka Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) tegi mustri, mis tavaliselt näitab müüjate väsimust. Mis selle taga oli? Tõenäoliselt suured fondid, kes püüvad oma positsioone natuke enne kvartali lõppu ilustada. Eriti ei imestaks kui samasugune trend ka täna jätkuks. Futuurid on kergelt plussis.
Suuremaid uudiseid hetkel ei ole. Eile õhtul liikus kuulujutt selle kohta, et Cendant (CD) on ostmas online-piletimüüja Orbiz (ORBZ)-i. ORBZ hüppas selle peale neljandiku. Selle peale pakub mulle huvi IACI, mis on viimasel ajal kõva müügisurve all olnud. Kuna ORBZ ostetakse ära päris kõrge valuatsiooniga, siis peaksid ülespoole liikuma ka teiste sektori tegijate valuatsioonid (IACI; PCLN). TZOO nende hulka loomulikult ei kuulu :).
IACI on ka selles suhtes huvitav, et Bear Stearns tuli üleeile välja kommentaariga, et nende arvates on müüjad suures osas aktsiast väljas. Goldmani legendaarne internetianalüütik Anthony Noto viskas IACI puhul rätiku ringi juba eelmisel nädalal. IACI ei ole soovitus.
Pooljuhid on ikka hädas peale SMH $30 taseme murdumist. Täna kirjutab bloomberg.com, et Hiina valitsus pigistab semi equipment makereid regulatsioonidega. Kuna Hiinast oodatakse palju, siis kindlasti hakkab see lugu deskidel täna ringlema.
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Amtech upgrades AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, NVLS, CMOS, ASYT, NSM, SMTC to Buy from Hold. See uudis aitas futuure natuke. Viimased hakkasid vahepeal jälle neg. territooriumile jõudma.
Amtech on hea analüüsifirma, kuid pikka mõju neil ilmselt ei ole.
sB -
Gapping Up
ORBZ +30% (Cendant to acquire Orbitz), GENR +15% (gets $100k grant for obesity program), IDNX +16% (wins US State Dept facial recognition contract), NTGR +10% (launches Prosafe Network Management System), YAKC +9% (newsletter mention), SIRI +9% (says radios will be in Wal-Mart nationwide; Bear Stearns upgrade), PCLN +10% (in sympathy with ORBZ), BLUD +7.8% (beats by a penny, guides Y05 EPS above consensus), EGHT +7.3% (signs retail pact with DataVision), NXTP +6.6% (raises adjusted EBITDA guidance), ROCK +5.9% (guides Q3 higher), SLR +5% (reports AugQ), IACI +2.6% (see ORBZ), GDT +2.1% (target raised to $74 from $63 at Deutsche).... Under $3: BIOM +39% (FDA grants fast track status), ARDM +21% (co and Novo expand licensing rights), SATC +15% (receives $1.8 mln order).
Gapping Down
MSPD -13.5% (guides lower; Needham downgrade), ESMC -9.1% (reports JunQ results), NABI -8.1% (profit taking after 15% move yesterday), CORV -8.1% (changes name to Broadwing), TSCO -7.2% (guides Q3 EPS lower), VISG -5.3% (lost State Dept contract to IDNX - see Gapping Up), ASML -4.1% (possible push-outs, lower margins), NFLX -3.9% (started with a Sell at Wedbush; tgt $13), SLAB -3.7% (Agere guidance), KFX -3.6% (WSJ article), PIXR -2.4% (Disney's Iger says Pixar deal unlikely), TZOO -2% (CD/ORBZ deal seen as competitive threat). -
Rev Shark:
The strong action yesterday in the usually stodgy old industrial groups such as steel, mining and farm equipment, prompted a number of market commentators to shake their heads in dismay and comment on the outrageous quarter-end window-dressing games. The attitude is that these stocks are being artificially manipulated by desperate funds trying to send the message that they are holding the hottest groups and not the technology and chip stocks that have been the big losers recently.
Certainly, manipulation of stock prices is not something that we want to promote, but in many cases what we are seeing is simply traders creating a self-fulfilling prophecy rather than outright manipulation. Traders expect window-dressing to occur in the stocks that have been the hottest lately. They don't wait for the moves to occur without them; they get in front of the anticipated move and cause it to occur. In many cases the end-of-the-quarter window-dressing is nothing more than overzealous traders.
Whatever the cause of end-of-the-quarter price movement might be, it is our job, nigh our obligation, as traders to take advantage of it. A lot of commentators whine about how terrible it is that these games are played, but if you are a longer-term investor, short-term price movements are totally irrelevant and if you are a short-term trader you should be happy to see the increased volatility.
Just make sure you stay aware of the forces at work and don't try to extrapolate something meaningful from a day or two of strong action. Many of these moves will reverse themselves quickly so it is important to keep your finger on the sell button. The system may be messed up but that doesn't mean we shouldn't seize the opportunities that arise.
The technical action yesterday was picture perfect. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 bounced off key support at the 50-day simple moving averages and volume and breadth were both very strong. That is exactly how you'd like to see a rally commence but the fact that big-cap techs were laggards, and the leadership was in old industry, raises a few red flags that maybe we better not be too trusting that momentum will be sustained.
In the early going we have flat action so far. Overseas markets were higher in Europe on strength in financials and mixed in Asia as exports reacted to soft consumer confidence in the U.S. Crude oil is down slightly but still holding close to the $50 mark. There isn't much news on the agenda. We have the final second-quarter GDP, which is expected to show 3% growth but it's not likely to be a major market mover.
Gary B. Smith:
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Turgudel taas kena põrge ning põhjuseks eelkõige nafta hinna kiire kukkumine peale uudist, et USA naftavarud on vastu ootusi nädalaga suurenenud. Barrel naftat on päevaga juba 2,6% odavnenud.
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Pärast turgude sulgemist avaldab augustis lõppenud neljanda fiskaalkvartali tulemused Micron Technology (MU). Üldise hoiatustesaju taustal on ootused tulemustele tõenäoliselt suhteliselt madalad. Seda peegeldab ka aktsiahind, mis veel 8 päeva eest kauples $13 juures, kuid tänaseks on umbes 7% jagu langenud. Konsensus käibe ning EPSi osas seisab vastavalt $1,24 miljardi ning $0,21 juures. CSFB ootab aga kesisemaid tulemusi, ehk siis käivet $1,21 miljardi ning EPSi $0,15 kanti. Merrill Lynch ootab neljandalt kvartalilt kerget marginaalide paranemist - prognoosiks 36,5% (eelmisel kvartalil 34,7%).
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MU will probably suck. Ainuke küsimus, et kas ootused ei ole juba liiga all.
sB -
Oliveril õigus. Micron (MU) jäi ootustele alla nii käibe kui kasumi osas, mis olid vastavalt $1,189 miljardit ning $93,5 miljonit ehk 14 senti aktsia kohta. Samas järelturgu jälgides tundub, et umbes nii halbu tulemusi oodatigi - aktsia kaupleb vaid kerges miinuses.
During the Micron earnings call, management noted Q1:05 demand looks quite favorable. The co noted: 1) Gross margin for Q3 holding up well with approximately 5% decline in ASPs; 2) Noted Q4 continued robust demand in all sectors with few surprises; 3) MU's noted its perception of the market being "supply and demand looks good" at this time. During Q&A: The co noted guidance for growing its business to be in the low double digits and DRAM prices appear stable to trending up.
