Börsipäev 4. okt - üllatusralli
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Reede oli üks nendest päevadest, mil pikaajalist portfelli oli märksa lõbusam vaadata kui lühiajalisi accounte. Reede hommik algas üpris tavalistes värvides - kooskõlas oma kergelt karuste vaadetega alustasime juba eelturul lühikeste positsioonide "pressimist". Peale esimest tundi aga hakkasid futuurid püstloodis tõusma, mis ei jätnud muud võimalust, kui olemasolevad positsioonid hilinenud karudesse katta.
Peale avanemist üritasime suuremalt pikaks minna, kuid turg liikus liiga kiiresti. Päeva lõpuks likvideerisime 1/3 positsioonidest üpris mikroskoopiliste kasumite eest, jättes enamuse tänaseks. Õhtuks kuivas likviidus nii kokku, et kogu positsioonist välja polekski saanud. Ühesõnaga mitte kõigem parem kauplemispäev.
Mis oli ralli taga?
- Peoplesofti (PSFT) juht astus tagasi, mis turuosaliste arvates hõlbustab firma müüki suuremale konkurendile, milleks on Oracle (ORCL).
- Liiga paljud turuosalised mängisid lühikest poolt. Üldlevinud vaade oli, et peale kvartalilõpu rallit peaks fondide poolne nõudlus kukkuma.
Täna hommikul on futuurid jälle plussis. Suuri uudiseid ei ole.
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Kuna täna veidi Soome hindadega veidi probleemne, siis väike ülevaade ka Soomes toimuvast.
Nokia aktsia 1,5% plussis tasemel 11,72 eurot, Sampo pank samuti 1,5% plussis ning üle 9 euro taseme, millelt võiks võtta juba kasumeid (eelkõige need investorid, kes ostsida aktsia enne suuri dividende), Elcoteq on 1,13% plussis tasemel 15,25 (tõus taas veidi Nokiast tõusu hiljem järgiv), metsasektor on samuti plussis UPM 0,57%, Stora Enso 0,98%. -
Bettie, su jutt on selline, nagu te käsutaks seal 100M$ hedgefund portfelli, et pressite üksinda premarketil positsioone alla ja reede õhtul ei saa positsioonidest välja?:)
Suurushullustus või me oleme siin millestki ilma jäetud?
Või treidite hoolega mingeid pennysid? -
Fit, äkki midagi vahepealset?
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YHOO Yahoo! downgraded at Jefferies (33.91 )
Jefferies downgrades YHOO to Hold from Buy based on valuation, as they believe that the current share price reflects much of the upside for the qtr. Firm continues to view YHOO as a core long-term holding in the group, and believes that the stock's volatility will provide investors with an opportunity to build positions at lower levels. Tgt is $35.
GOOG Google cut to Hold from Buy at Jefferies on valuation; tgt upped to $135 from $120 (132.58 )
Jefferies downgrades GOOG to Hold from Buy following a spectacular 57% rise in the stock price from its IPO level. However, they raise their tgt to $135 from $120 based on their increased ests for the industry. Firm raises their rev est to roughly $9.9 bln for the year, up from $9.4 bln. As a result, they increase GOOG's FY05 rev/EPS ests to $2.5 bln and $2.32 from $2.4 bln and $2.23. Firm also notes risks such as increased decibels out of Microsoft search, lack of financial guidance, and the Nov lock-up expiration of roughly 40 mln shares.
Futuurid elasid need kaks downgrade üle. Pisike alapoole jõnks graafikul. Need, kes YHOOd selle peale shortisid, tunnevad hetkel veidi kahetsust?
sB -
Mul on ehk kiusutuju täna, aga sa bettie peaks teadma, et
a) 99% olulistest up ja downgrade'st on turuliigutajatel fondidel käes juba enne kella 7t New Yorgi aja järgi.
b) need downgraded jõudsid massidesse juba 7.13 ja siis puudus pea täielikult turg mõlemas aktsias.
c) sellise suurusega aktsiaid Jefferies eriti ei muuvi, veel vähem futuure, kurat, isegi UBSi päevasisene ALTR downgrade ei liikund ´vastu turgu
d) kas tõesti on siin foorumites palju tüüpe, kes hilinenud info põhjal agaralt otsuseid teevad?
No offence, though:) -
ALTR ei kukkunud kuna asi oli väljas 30-40 min enne kui sina selle FCst kätte said.
muidu suht mõttetu ärplemine. mõlemalt poolt. vabandan :)
sB -
Rev Shark:
"Timing, degree and conviction are the three wise men in this life."
-- R. I. Fitzhenry
The timing of the rally on Friday's rally caught many market participants by surprise, which is precisely why it was so fast and furious. Many folks had anticipated a solid rally in the seasonal strong fourth quarter or in conjunction with the presidential election but very few were looking for a big move in front of third-quarter earnings. Earnings seasonal had not been anticipated to be particularly strong especially after a number of warnings in the technology sector.
The idea of a soft October and then a strong run into the end of the year sounds very logical for a number of reasons but it is almost too simple and easy to work. A big rally at this point, when bulls are not ready and are underinvested, is a classic example of how the market does its best to dole out a high level of frustration to as many folks as possible.
Even the more optimistic bulls have been looking for the market to at least rest a bit more after the big move off the August lows. The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports certainly did not seem to warrant aggressive buying. To make it even more disconcerting, the rally Friday came as crude oil closed over the $50-a-barrel mark for the first time and as the politic pundits declared that Sen. Kerry was the winner of the presidential debate.
There was no obvious catalyst for the big rally on big volume. It can be attributed primarily to poor timing and poor positioning by too many market participants who suddenly had to scramble to play catch-up.
After the action on Friday, a strong open on Monday morning shouldn't come as a big surprise. Retail investors read about the big move over the weekend and are fearful that the market is off to the races and they are going to be left out if they don't rush out and buy when the market opens on Monday morning. I can assure you that market makers, specialists and other pros are thinking about ways to exploit an overabundance of exuberance.
Technically both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq pulled off classic action. Both indices bounced off support levels at their 50-day simple moving averages almost perfectly The S&P 500 is now on the cusp of breaking the downtrend line that has been in place since the beginning of the year. Mr. Market is probably contemplating a scenario right now where he pulls off a technical breakout through the downtrend line, sucks in the technical buyers and then reverses hard. Whatever happens we are at a key technical juncture for the SP 500 as it battles that downtrend line.
The Nasdaq is facing a technical hurdle at its 200-day simple moving average, which is 1964. The Nasdaq has quite a ways to go before the downtrend line that started in January comes into play.
Overseas markets were doing well overnight, news flow is mostly benign so far and oil is trading down. We have an upbeat open on the way but will the optimism last?
G. B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
STEC +25.5% (boosts guidance), SEBL +17% (issues upside guidance), HTCH +10% (raisese guidance), GENR +9% (granted FDA fast-track), CACS +8.3% (Janney upgrade), BEAS +7% (finds bid on positive SEBL guidance), TZOO +6.2% (positioning ahead of next week's earnings release, speculation of stock split, general market strength), NIHD +2.7% (Russian stocks rally on positive valuation of Yukos unit), ORCL +2.3% (general market strength, SEBL guidance),
Gapping Down
SPRT -22% (reduces guidance), MOBI -17.5% (lowers guidance), AGIX -10% (negative Barron's article), XMSR -3.1% (disappointing sub numbers), PSFT -2.1% (Schwab SoundView downgrade), SWFT -4.2% (formal SEC investigation focusing on stock trades by CEO, other insiders). -
Tech-head Cody Willard sez:
Holy cow, but I thought tech was dead!
Seibel (SEBL) says biz better than they thought it would be. Semtech (SMTC), left for dead, says biz upticked. Hutchinson Technology (HTCH) says demand returned. Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS), on the other hand, says more pushouts than they expected.
It's possible things might not be horrid in tech land after all.
Long VTSS calls -
Lisaks veel ka First Albany positiivsus:
Semiconductor companies will outperform the broad market through the end of the year given that fourth-quarter expectations are very low and on the belief that portfolios are underweight the sector -
10:10 YHOO Yahoo! slips into red, finally seeing impact of morning downgrade... watch for GOOG +3.52 to also possibly pool off highs of morning (34.96 -0.07) -- Update --
Tundub, et YHOO downgrade hakkab oma mõju avaldama. Oluline sentimenti kohapealt.
fwiw,
sB -
pulliturg?
# There are even some market players who view the high price of oil in a positive light, said Suskind.
For these people, "the global economy is so strong, it is causing consumption to be high and lifting the price of oil." # -
"How to avoid paying your bills" by Alan Greenspan. Tore pilt ka juures.
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Mina ei ärbelnud, ma muigasin suurejoonelises stiilis jutu üle. a mis sellest ikka, Jim Cramer ju ärples ka, et "take 50 000 IBM, cause an imbalance":))
Ja oli sellegipoolest hea fundmanager.
ja tõsi, up- või downgrade liigutab mõnikord aktsiat alles siis kui ta jõuab massidesse, näiteks briefingusse. Või näeb chartilt kas on liikund. ALTR ei olnud, muide. ta spaikis kenasti 5 minutiks alla masside sissetuleku peale ja rallis siis koos turuga.
aga see GOOG ja YHOO asi oli juba ammu massides, kui pärast 8t likviidsus tekkis.
Ja kui kahju pole, siis huvitaks ka , mis aktsiatega reede õhtul on LHV fondil ebalikviidne tegutseda.
Ja vabandada pole mu arust kummalgi poolel vaja, väike teravus elavdab vahetevahel, respekt on minu poolt täiesti olemas. -
Suve jooksul arenenud dialoog kahe ülimalt helge pea vahel - Bill Gross (Pimco) vs. Stephen Roach (Morgan Stanley). Teemadeks naftahind, USA kõrge eelarvedefitsiit ning Hiina tulevik.
Keda makrosuund ka huvitab, siis möödapääsmatu lugemine.
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040930-thu.html#anchor0
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All love here too :*
udaman! :)
sB
