Börsipäev 5. oktoober - AMD hilisöösel
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Üks huvitav sündmus eilselt järelturult - AMD andis kerges toonis kasumihoiatuse, kuid tegi seda meie aja järgi kell 2.00 öösel, ehk kolm tundi pärast turu sulgemist ja kauplemist siis praktiliselt enam ei toimunud. Reeglina avaldatakse sellised uudised ikka kohe pärast turgu, vaid väga harva üritatakse väga halbu uudiseid niimoodi "peita".
Kusjuures AMD hoiatus polnud üldse nii jube, et seda peitma oleks pidanud. Kummaline. -
spekuleerides võib ehk oletada, et püüdis maksimumaalselt ette valmistuda 7Oct tulemuste teatamiseks, mis - üllatus küll - on After Market Close, mida oleks loogiline psühholoogiliselt kehvade uudiste teatamiseks kasutada. hea straddle kandidaat, $14 strike saab alla dollari kätte ;)
btw, kuskil oli tehtud uurimus, et tööandjal on kasulik töötajat lahti lasta reedel. siis pidavat kõige lihtsamini lahti saama :-D
ehk on ka tulemuste teatajatest kõige hullemad reedesse jäävad after market close earningud :-P -
tehvlon
Üsna suur osa firmadest teatab oma tulemustest pärast börsipäeva lõppu. Sõltumata sellest, kas tulemsued on head või halvad. -
Kuigi eile päeva lõpupoole domineerisid karud, siis tänane hommik toob jälle väikese plussi futuurides. Suuri uudiseid on mitu:
- Protsessoritootja Advanced Micro (AMD) andis Q3 jaoks käibehoiatuse, süüdistades siiski peamiselt flash-mälu nõrka müüki. Tugev protsessorimüük teeb aga enamuse sellest nõrkusest tasa. Näiteks kasvab CPU käive selles kvartalis 10-11%, mis on oluliselt kõrgem number suurema konkurendi Inteli (INTC) prognoosidest (5% q/q). Kokkuvõttes tundub, et analüütikud
ja muud turuosalised ei olegi eriti negatiivselt meelestatud.- Tänase päeva kõneaineks saab kindlasti hoopis suure majaehitaja eile õhtul avaldatud kasumihoiatus. Pulte Homes (PHM) andis kasumihoiatuse (q3; 2004), kuna Las Vegase turul (8-10% käibest) toimus midagi üpris ootamatut. Liiga kõrgele tõusnud hinnad (100% y/y) julgustasid juba olemasolevaid majaomanikke oma eluasemeid müüki panema, jättes PHM-i konkurentsist välja. Tulemuseks 60% cancel-rate viimase 2-3 kuu jooksul. PHM pidi hindu konkurentsis püsimiseks alandama.
Nüüd ongi peamiseks küsimuseks see, kes on tegemist ühe piirkonna/firma probleemiga või hakkama varsti nägema samasugust olukorda ka mujal? KBH ja DHI saavad PHM-ga sarnast osa käibest Las Vegase turult.
Millal üldse nägime viimane kord, et mõni majaehitaja oleks hoiatanud? Viimase paari-kolme aasta jooksul on see sektor näidanud püstloodis kasvanud kasumeid. Kindlasti mõjutab see uudis sentimenti.
- JP Morgan alandab HPQ reitingut, kuid samal ajal tõstetakse IBM-i oma. Kokku nullivad vist üksteist ära :).
- Dupont Photomask (DPMI) ostetakse Jaapani päritolu konkurendi poolt ära ligemale 50% preemiaga. See omab pos. mõju kogu pooljuhtide sektorile, kuna annab märku, et valuatsioonid võiksid olla kõrgemad.
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Gapping Up
DPMI +44% (agrees to be acquired), GLGS +25% (EU patent for oral administration of cancer drug candidate), SCUR +20% (guides above consensus), NFLX +15.5% (seeing mixed reaction to guidance, but market was pricing in much worse -- shorts forced to cover), PLAB +9% (although there are concerns of competitive threat, huge price premium awarded DPMI in merger is too large to ignore), GERN +7% (awarded stem cell patent), FRX +6.7% (raises guidance), IDNX +5% (awarded another contract), FILE +4.7% (Baird upgrade), T +1.9% (Smith Barney upgrades from Sell), IBM +1% (JP Morgan upgrade).
Gapping Down
GNLB -75% (announces trial results), MNKD -12.5% (Advest initiates this $19.00 stock with a Sell and $5 tgt), RI -9.7% (downgraded post-earnings, sales come in light), PHM -5% (downgraded after lowering guidance), TOL -4.8%, RYL -3% and KBH -2% (fallout from PHM warning), AMD -3.3% (reduces guidance, INTC trades off 0.6% in sympathy), DNA -2.9% (receives subpoena on Rituxan), SNDK -1.1% (seeing minor fallout from AMD comments on Flash sector), GILD -1% (Smith Barney downgrade), JDSU -0.9% (JP Morgan starts with an Underweight). -
Rev Shark:
"Most of us, when all is said and done, like what we like and make up reasons for it afterwards."
-- Soren F. Peterson
The folks who write about the stock market are amazingly adept at coming up with reasons to explain why the market moved in the manner it did. This is fairly simple to do in hindsight, because there are always economic statistics, news from important companies or events in international politics that will correlate with the movement in the market and provide a handy explanation for what occurred.
Investors are logical people and they will always seek understanding by looking for a cause-and-effect relationship between news events and market movements. In many cases the real reasons for market movement are far more complex than the glib headlines that we see in financial publications.
The market is an extremely complex pricing mechanism. Not only does it react to the news of the day but it also considers confidence levels, prevailing sentiment and expectations about future events. What happens in the market on any given day is generally due to a confluence of a number of factors and not simply the top news story of the day.
The sharp rally that began Friday illustrates this point well. Despite a number of things that should have acted as a market suppressant, such as continued high oil prices and the Kerry debate performance, we moved up sharply. Market commentators have come up with a slew of reasons to explain why this sharp move occurred -- beginning-of-the-quarter positions by mutual funds, a secret preference for Senator Kerry, and an impending economic bounce have all be proffered as good reasons.
The truth is a mish-mash of many things. It gives us comfort to know what those factors are but it is very easy to overthink such things. Regardless of the reasons, the fact is that the market is acting very strong in recent days. There is obviously a desire among buyers with substantial assets to put their cash to work. All you have to do is look at the action to see that buyers are using their wallets to vote for a bullish scenario.
The major indices have all moved up on strong breadth and increasing volume. Key technical overhead is being attacked and the usual reasons for worry, such as oil and the war in Iraq, are being ignored.
It is quite easy to argue that the market is acting irrationally and that we can't trust it but the truth is that the collective wisdom of the market is far more astute than any individual. Those who claim to be smarter than the market do so at their peril. Respect the evidence of bullishness that is in front of your face.
That doesn't mean jump in blindly and indiscriminately. It means that we shouldn't discount strength simply because we have trouble finding handy explanations for it.
We have a slightly positive open shaping up despite crude oil moving back over the $50 a barrel price point and poor news from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:NYSE). Housing stocks are under pressure as Pulte Homes (PHM:NYSE) cuts guidance; meanwhile, an upgrade of IBM (IBM:NYSE) by JP Morgan is helping things. Greenspan is giving a speech today at the American Banker's Association convention (party, dudes!) and the market will be keeping an eye on that.
G. B. Smith:
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PLAB anyone? DPMI peamine pure-play listed peer.
sB -
Tänased peamised sentimendi indikaatorid ongi ülalmainitud AMD (AMD) ja Pulte Homes (PHM). Eriti tasub jälgida AMD-d kuna nende uudis oli selline, mille peale nädal tagasi oleks ilmselt aktsia üles ostetud, tänase päeva alguses näeme 4% miinust.
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MEDI, easy money on CHIR.
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PSSI, PHCC.
sB -
MEDI prolly short. 3.month delay ja Flumist on surnud toode.
sB -
olgem täpsed, nyyd on juba liiga hilja tegelikult.
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IBM on viimastel päevadel tublisti tõusnud. Aktsia tänasele reitingutõstmisele nõrgalt reageerinud. Vastupidiselt on käitunud AMD, milles mõnevõrra negatiivsete (?) uudiste peale müügihuvi väike. Karudele ei taha alluda ka räsitud WMT, mis prognoosib Q3 kasumit prognoosi alumisse äärde. AMD ja WMT puhul olid uudised ka suhteliselt ootuspärased, mistõttu ei hakkaks sellest kohe viimase aja optimismi jätkumist turul välja lugema.
