Börsipäev 11. oktoober - majandustulemused
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LHV Turukomitee - nädal 41 (.pdf).
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Suhteliselt vaikne hommik. Futuurid alla poole protsendi plussis, kuigi naftahind püsib kõrgemate tasemete juures. Suuri uudiseid ei ole. Philipsi (PHG) ja ning Korea tehnoloogiahiiu LG veidi aja eest tööd alustanud LCD monitore pakkuv ühifirma teatas üllatuslikult halvad kvartalitulemused. Kasum kukkus 15% võrreldes eelmise kvartaliga. Põhjuseks ülepakkumine globaalsel turul. Hinnad kukkusid 20% selles kvartalis ning firma sõnul peaksid kukkuma veel 20-30% 2005. aasta esimeses pooles.
Kas see uudis kedagi üllatab? Ei usu. Võibolla AUO avaneb veidi alla.
Teine märkimist väärt uudis on see, et Oracle (ORCL) võib Peoplesofti (PSFT) ostupakkumist tõstmise asemel hoopis alandada. Viimane pakkumine on $21 tasemel ning analüütikud on pikalt spekuleerinud $25 teemal. Larry Ellison võib aga WSJ-i sõnul minna tagasi esimese, $16 pakkumise juurde. See oleks negatiivne kogu sektori jaoks.
Täna on tulemusterindel veel vaikne. Tõeline action algab homme ning kestab 7-8 nädalat. Ühtaegu huvitav ning väsitav aeg ilmselt kõigile turuosalistele. Usun, et kõige suuremate kaotuste osaliseks võib saada tarkvarasektor.
Huvitav näha, kas pullid peale turu esimesi tunde karude survele vastu peavad.
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Gapping Up
INTL +6.6% (positive Barron's story), SONS +6.6% (positive Goldman comments), FCEL +4.2% (finalizes agreement to build direct FuelCell power plants in Japan), TZOO +4.1% (IBD mention), MXO +3.3% (Deutsche upgrade), TEVA +2.3% (additional data reaffirm clinical benefits Of Copaxone treatment in MS), IPIX +2.3% (deploys iCentra to deliver sales intelligence to partners, resellers, and distributors), VRTS +2.2% (announces that Banco Santander is using Veritas' Volume Replicator), BIIB +1.4% (Lehman upgrade).... Under $3: GRIC +19% (Needham upgrade), ISON +18% (launches a Homeland Security and Defense division), FNSR +7% (co to issue fewer shares to acquire IFX's fiber optics biz).
Gapping Down
GLBCE -5.5% (announces recapitalization, job cuts), UNTD -4.6%, SIRI -3.2% (continues 7.5% drop on Friday), NWAC -3.1% (cut to Sell at Smith Barney), CHTR -1.6% (outlook revised to negative at S&P). -
Rev Shark:
"Victory is not won in miles but in inches. Win a little now, hold your ground, and later win a little more."
-- Louis L'Amour
The biggest mistake most investors make is to not act quickly to protect their portfolios when the market begins to act weak. Traditional Wall Street has a very strong bias toward inaction when the market begins to stumble. The standard advice is to sit back and wait it out. As the market sinks, the words "buying opportunity" are used to induce investors to buy falling stocks.
A common trait among highly successful traders and investors is that they work hard to produce gains and then work even harder to protect them. They understand that when danger signs begin to pop up like they did last Thursday and Friday, it is extremely important to shift to a defensive stance. If they sell too early, that can be easily corrected, but if they sell too late, making up losses creates a significant hurdle.
If you enjoyed the rally off the August low, then make sure you hold your ground and don't start giving back those hard-won profits. The market action last week is a major warning sign and should put us on the defensive. If we protect our gains now, we will be ideally positioned when the market environment looks better once again.
Traditional Wall Street has an extremely strong bias toward inaction when the indices start to show signs of weakness. It is probably due, at least in part, to the inability of most large institutional investors to move quickly. They don't acknowledge that most individual investors have far greater flexibility than the elephantine institutions and can easily stand aside while they wait for greater market clarity.
This missive about playing defense is prompted by very troubling action on Friday. The fundamental news about employment and oil provided good reason for the indices to fail at critical technical junctures. It is possible we may right ourselves and head higher as earnings season unfolds, but we are in a very precarious position right now. Many traders have recent gains to protect, and there is little in the way of compelling value or favorable news to attract buyers.
Earnings season is going to keep things tricky, and many are optimistic, but the market environment both technically and fundamentally is not very hospitable right now. Focus on protecting recent gains and your capital base. The cost of defensive action is very low compared with the risk of doing nothing.
We have a slightly positive open at the moment, despite continued strength in crude oil prices. There is little other market-moving news at the moment. Monday morning optimism always makes me cringe a bit. I envision market makers and specialists moving prices up so they can short shares to retail buyers who have been convinced by brokers that Friday's weakness was a "buying opportunity."
G. B. Smith:
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Paar olulisemat uudist:
- Bear Stearns on väljas neg SNDK teemal:
08:08 SNDK SanDisk: Q4 guidance likely to be lackluster, see more downside than upside over the next 3-6 months -- Bear Stearns (30.20 )
Bear Stearns out negative on Sandisk saying that although their estimates are at the high-end of guidance for Q3, channel checks indicate current NAND price levels are unsustainable, and they believe a correction in component pricing could occur in late Oct or early Nov when distributors and retail channels will be well stocked for the holiday season. Notes that the recent upward movement in NAND contract pricing of approx 10% in Sept was driven by Samsung's strategic move to boost pricing during the peak sales season by controlling supply of flash components into the market, and there is anecdotal evidence that Samsung has been building up its internal inventory over the past 1-2 months. Due to that, the firm expects SNDK to issue lackluster 4Q04 guidance. Continues to rate SanDisk shares Underperform, as they believe there is significantly more downside risk to the stock than upside potential in the next 3-6 months.
- Amtech alandab GOOG reitingu Sell peale (sentiment!)
Kui sinna lisada veel PSFT/ORCL võimalik ostupakkumise vähendamine, siis paneb veidi imestama, miks turg veel plussis on. Tundub, et kõigest olenemata on pullid VEEL hetkel jõupositsioonil. Liiga palju shorte?
fwiw,
sB -
SNDK pööras allapoole alles pärast mõningast mõtlemist päeva alguses, kuigi põhjuseks ilmselt samad Bear Sternsi kommentaarid. Mida kaugemale strike'st seda kasulikum straddle omanikele. Volatiilsus juba 110% juurde liikunud.
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Uus Tshernobõl .... Narva lähistel? :(
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Rev Shark'i jutt ei lähe nagu kokku Kasvukonto ideoloogiaga? Huvitav oleks lugeda, kuidas spetsialistid seda kommenteerivad. Või peab Kasvukonto omanik olema ka selline "elephantine", vähemalt paksunahalisuse mõttes? Analoogilisi kommentaare ilmub tegelikult regulaarselt nendessamades päevakroonika rubriikides ja Kasvukonto reklaam on siin kõrval ka kogu aeg olnud. Kas need ei sega teineteist?
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Rev Shark on kaupleja, Kasvukonto on toode pikaajalisele investorile.
LHV klientide hulgas on mõlemad segmendid esindatud, kuid börsipäeva foorumites, Avalöökides jms. on loomulikult rohkem esindatud kauplejale vajalik informatsioon ja mõtted, pikaajalisele investorile lihtsalt ei ole igapäevased turukõikumised ja sellega seonduv olulised. -
Ei tea kas AEZS languse taga mingi enam või vähem ilmne põhjus kah on?
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AEZS ühtegi uudist ei ole tulnud, mis peaks neg. mõju avaldama. Aktsia on suhteliselt õhuke ning võib-olla täideti mõni suurem order.
