Börsipäev 13. okt - futuuride trend alla
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USA aktsiaturud leidsid eil (üpris oodatult) oma põhjad gapi täitmisel. Langev naftahind oli kindlasti ka mõjukas tegur, pakkudes tuge ostjatele.
- Intel (INTC) avaldas eile õhtul oma tulemused. Tulemused tuleb lugeda keskpärasteks või isegi veidi nõrkadeks, kuid sellest hoolimata suruti aktsiad 1 pt jagu järelturul ülespoole. Analüütikud ei ole täna hommikul eriti sõbralikud - 2004/2005 prognoose kärbitakse nii mõneski majas. Aktsiad kauplevad 19-20x kasumit, ajaloolise keskmise olles pigem 15x kandis. Saab näha, kuidas pullid sellest tänase päeva esimestel tundidel välja tulevad. Ise kipun arvama, et ootused olid siiski veidi kõrgemad.
- Yahoo (YHOO) säras tavapäraselt. Kvartalitulemused ületasid ootusi, prognooside olles veidi laia vahemikuga. Näiteks järgmise kvartali käibeprognoos $710-760 mln vihjab nii võimalikule hoiatusele kui ka tugevale ületusele (konsensus $725 mln kandis). Sellest tingituna ilmselt ka aktsiad pärst tulemusi suunda leida ei osanud. Suund saadi kätte alles juhtkonna kommentaaride peale. Seekord üles. Analüütikud täna hommikul oodatult positiivsed. Siiski ei oska/suuda ma näha erilist tõusupotentsiaali praegustelt tasemetelt.
- Maailma 2. suurim jaemüüja Carrefour andiski kasumihoiatuse.
- Euroopa semi eq. tootja ASML Holdings (ASML) tuli välja kvartalitulemustega, mis jäid vaid veidi alla prognoosidele. Tulemuseks tõus kogu EU semi sektoris (ASML; STM; IFX jne).
- Futuurid on hetkel küll plussis, kuid trend on alla.
Graafik (briefing.com):
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...see nagu ilmaennustus aga õige ilma saad ikkagi siis teada, kui ise õue astud (turg avaneb)...viimasel ajal on jäänud mulje, et turuosalised käituvad ainult vastavalt toornafta hinnale....täna ta vist langeb..
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FYI, futuuride trend üles :)
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Thanks, Fit!!!!!!!
sB -
USA järelturult tuli kaks olulist majandusraportit, milledest vähemalt üks ehk Inteli üsna nõrk raport võeti ootamatult positiivselt vastu. Yahoo tugev raport ning lai kuid üldjoontest tugev kasumiprognoos on aktsiat eelturul kergitanud üle 52 nädala tippude.
Dow aktsiatest avaldas väga hea kolmanda kvartali prognoosi McDonalds (MCD), aktsia on eelturul 4% plussis. Kolmandas kvartalis teenis firma 61 senti aktsia kohta (prognoositi vaid 49 senti). Aasta lahti olnud söögikohtade müük kasvas septembris 7,3%.
Nafta hind on vaatamata raskustele suurtes ekspordiriikides (Venemaa, Nigeeria, Venetsueela) võtnud suuna alla ning barrel maksab 51,5 dollarit.
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Rev Shark:
"Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another. This painting here. I bought it 10 years ago for $60,000. I could sell it today for $600,000. The illusion has become real, and the more real it becomes, the more desperately they want it."
-- Oliver Stone
The perception so far this morning is that the earnings reports from Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) are "good enough." Expectations going into the earnings announcements were low enough that perfect reports were not needed. In the case of Intel that is particularly important, because forward guidance was obviously not overly impressive. Yahoo!'s report was better with some upbeat comments about certain trends, but the bottom-line numbers aren't particularly fantastic. Nonetheless, both stocks are trading up in the early going.
The raw numbers of earnings season mean very little in isolation. Success is a function of expectations and perceptions. A poor report may be a success if expectations are low enough. The biggest positive the bulls have going for them right now is that expectations appear to be fairly low. We will be able to judge that better as the day wears on and we see how Intel and Yahoo! act, but early indications are that the market is prepared to perceive anything short of a disaster as a success.
The bulls not only have low expectations going for them at the moment but a couple of other positives. Crude oil is under pressure once again this morning and has pulled back to around $52 after moving through $54 for a couple days. Another positive is that a few days of weakness have improved the technical picture to some extent. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 find support after giving back about 50% of the gain from the low at the end of September. Additionally, both indices at least partially filled the gaps on the chart that was created on the first day of the fourth quarter when the indices had a particularly strong day. It isn't great technical support, but it may be enough to give the buyers some comfort.
We have more earnings reports due out today, but none quite as important as Intel and Yahoo!. Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq), Novellus (NVLS:Nasdaq), QLogic (QLGC:Nasdaq) and SanDisk (SNDK:Nasdaq) will receive the most attention.
There is no economic news on the schedule today, so the focus will be on earnings. Overseas markets were mixed with Europe rallying on technology stocks, but the Nikkei failed to share the enthuaism that others seemed to have for Intel. That is a little troublesome and sure keeps us a bit wary today.
Can the bulls sustain a move on reports that are just "good enough"? That is today's key question. Right now the answer appears to be yes, but it certain can change quickly.
Gary B. Smith:
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09:34 MCDTA McDATA: Two legendary hedge-fund managers have accumulated significant stakes in McData Corp -- Rocky Mountain News (5.89 +0.16)
Two deep-pocketed investors have bought a significant stake in Broomfield data-storage company McData Corp., apparently betting on a future rise in the co's depressed stock. The stock purchases by hedge-fund guru Paul Tudor Jones and investor Jonathan Gallen, who's notable for buying shares of "distressed" companies, have raised eyebrows on Wall Street. The share purchases come amid speculation that McData may be ripe for acquisition by another company because its stock is viewed as a bargain. The company, which employs about 1,000, makes switches for data-storage computer networks. Based on filings Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the two have accumulated shares that together represent about 5.5 percent of McData's outstanding stock.
sB -
IDTI avaneski üleval nagu arvasin, päevasiseselt on stop $10.60 endiselt, veel pole see käiku läinud. Olen valmis vajadusel positsiooni sulgema, kui tõuseb läbi sellest.
Ardo -
Ei jõua kuulata enam sellest nafta hinnast
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10:25 WRNC Warnaco Group cut to Hold at Lazard (21.25 -0.46)
Lazard downgrades WRNC to Hold from Buy and cuts their tgt to $22 from $25. While they believe that the co's rev growth/margin expansion outlook is superior to that of its peer group, firm says that WRNC is not immune to pervasive weakness in the retail channels, which could cause higher markdown allowances and/or order cancellations. Given the sustained weakness in the dept store retail channels, firm cuts their Q4 est to $0.42 from $0.44 (consensus $0.45) and cuts their 2005 est to $1.38 from $1.46 (consensus $1.35).
sB -
Rick, eks ta meedia tähelepanu ehk ka liigselt köitnud on ja kui naftahind maha rahuneb, siis ei räägi sellest peatselt enam keegi.
Kuid mööda ei saa vaadata siiski selle mõjust majandusele ning seetõttu see ka turgu nii palju mõjutab. Näiteks viimasel tunnil hakkas naftahind tegema tippe ja aktsiad selle peale hoopis uusi põhju. -
16:05 SNDK prelim $0.29 vs $0.34 consensus; revs of $408 mln vs $457.1 mln consensus
SNDK @ $25 and falling -
Palju õnne minu poolt kõigile SNDK straddle võtjatele :)
SNDK @ $24
Ardo -
Ma vaikselt sulgen positsiooni aktsiatega ($23.50 pealt).
1 lepingu kohta tuleks osta 100 aktsiat ja reedeks taandavad need üksteist maha. -
Mõned tulemused järelturult:
Novellus (NVLS) - käive $415,9 miljonit (ootused $411,86), EPS $0,45 (ootused $0,38)
Lam Research (LRCX) - käive $419,5 miljonit (ootused $403,15), EPS $0,64 (ootused $0,58)
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totaalse algajana palun abi - kui mul on 10 lepingut, siis peaksin ostma 1000 aktsiat ja lihtsalt reedet ootama? Tanud ette.
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Andreas, täpselt nii.
10 lepingut SNDK straddlega tähendab ühtlasi ca. 4000 USD teenistust :) -
andreas
jah, kuna kasumi tooja on antud juhul put, siis Sa ostad 1000 aktsiat nüüd 24 USD kandist ja need 10 lepingut putte annavad Sulle õiguse müüa need homme 30 USDiga
see tähendab kui Sul on ikka 10 lepingut putte ja 10 lepingut calle, mitte selles mõttes et 10 lepingut on 5 calli ja 5 putti -
Henno seletas täpsemalt. Iga puti kohta 100 aktsiat.
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ikka 10+10 oli :) Esimene tehing straddlega
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Telekomilt päris head tulemused
