Börsipäev 15. okt - NFLX!!!
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Futuurid täna hommikul veidi plussis. Suuri uudiseid ei ole.
- Juniper Networks (JNPR) tuli eile õhtul välja tulemustega, mis esmapilgul nägid välja OK, kuid lähem vaatlus paljastas nõrkuse security käibes. Lisaks sellele spekuleerivad analüütikud, et core-business (ruuterid) on viimaste kvartalite jooksul olnud tugev tänu turuosa võtmisele Cisco käest. Pikalt ilmselt CSCO seda ei luba.
- Netflix (NFLX) tõi eile LHV klientidele sisse üle miljoni krooni. Et konkureerida uute tegijatega turul (AMZN), peab firma langetama oma teenuse eest kasutatavat hinda. Kas sellega tapetakse ära Blockbuster (BBI)? Ei tea. Mäletan vaid, et NFLX tõstis esimest korda firma ajaloos teenuse hindu selle aasta juunis. Mitu maja on täna hommikul väljas downgradedega. Panen täna LHV Pro alla välja veidi analüüsi NFLX teemal. Selle nädala alguses tuli ju uudis, et legendaarne fondijuht Bill Miller (Legg Mason) on ostnud kokku 6 mln firma aktsiat. Tundub, et helged pead usuvad firma tulevikku...ikka veel.
- Kindlustussektor sai eile valusa löögi. Soovitan uurida kõige suurema löögi saanud aktsiat MMC. Eile müüsid ilmselt mutual-fundid ja hedge fundid ostsid. MMC võib osutuda tõeliseks value-pärliks. Ei ole (veel kindlasti) soovitus.
Graafik (Briefing.com):
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LHV ei paista silma mitte ainult edukate investeerimisideede poolest.
Kui ei usu, vaata siia, :)
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Tegemist siis LHV Pärnut mnt. kliendikontori vaprate tüdrukutega.
Kes veel kliendiks pole tulnud ... :) -
Gapping Up
SUNW +4% (reports SepQ, Bear Stearns upgrade), PECS +4.9% (UBS upgrade), RMBS +4.5% (beats by a penny), NWAC +2.4% (Smith Barney upgrade), SIRI +2.2% (to launch uncensored hip-hop channel created by Eminem, Shady Records, others), NOK +2%, GOOG +1.9% (started with an Outperform, $180 tgt at Schwab SoundView)... Under $3: ISON +26% (announces NeutroTest prototype for explosive detection, public demo scheduled for Oct. 21), SFLK +5.3% (gets $700k in US Defense Dept. orders).
Gapping Down
NFLX -43% (reports Q3, Lowers '05 to breakeven from $1.19; to lower sub price to $18 from $22, AMZN may enter market, 5 firms downgrade the stock), LJPC -60% (FDA asked for further data on their main drug candidate), POSS -25% (guides lower, First Albany downgrade $10 tgt), MGAM -20% (guides lower), CNET -11% (announces $300 mln shelf, guides below Q4 consensus), EMCI -9.5% (prices secondary offering at $18.75), MMC -8.8% (multiple downgrades following Spitzer suit), GIVN -8.3% (provides Q3 sales), JNPR -6.8% (beats Q3 by $0.02, but security revs below expectations), MCEL -6.6% (possible Nasdaq delisting), BBI -5% (AMZN competitive threat), DAL -5% (guides Q3 lower), CREE -3.5% (beats by $0.04, slightly light on revs), MRVL -2.9% (UBS downgrade), VRTS -1.8% (JMP downgrade). -
Tana peale avanemist, kui volatiilsus on langenud, on paras aeg osta nov10 calle.
Eile jain hiljaks positsiooni soetamisega, tana plaanin calle osta.
Muidugi moistlikus koguses:) -
Cody Willard:
What a long, grinding autumn it has been that has followed a long, grinding summer. The market always seems to do its best to frustrate as many market participants as possible, and it sure has been frustrating a lot of people this year. The bulls have placed their bets, and the bears have placed their bets, and with only the occasional exception -- such as Research In Motion (RIMM:Nasdaq) for the bulls and Netflix (NFLX:Nasdaq) for the bears -- most have missed the big moves in either direction.
Rev Shark and I both write often about the need for patience in one's investing/trading approach, and with good reason. We just can't force things upon the market, but we just have to let things come to us. Sometimes it's tiresome, sometimes it's fun, sometimes it's painful. But it is what it is, and there's just no getting around that.
Oil continues to run, run, run higher like the bubble it probably is. Given that moves like this always last longer and go further than anyone thinks possible, couldn't we expect to see the price at $65 before it pops? I don't know, but I sure do think the high oil prices are weighing on equities.
We saw some cracks in the oil/steel/commodities contingent earlier this week, when the metals like nickel and copper collapsed nearly 10% in a day and a plethora of related stocks did so too. I often cite what my hedge fund friends are doing, and I have to say that just as most are aggressively short tech, most are long commodities in one way or another. That will last until it won't, and there's no guarantee that it will reverse anytime soon, but it would provide some real fireworks if it turns out that commodities of 2004 are the tech/Internet/telecoms of the late 1998-2000. Of course, please note that 1998-2000 is three years worth of action and 2004 is simply ... well, one. Gulp.
Probably the new biggest worry for the market, at least in my mind, is the deluge of corporate scandals and ethics concerns coming to market once again. Yesterday Eliot Spitzer, who for all his probable political aspirations is simply doing a remarkable job of cleaning up this Street, announced he's going after the insurers again. Meanwhile, Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE) and its stunning (stunning because it's taken so long, not because the news is any type of revelation to readers of Detox on RealMoney and of Haefele on Street Insight) problems of financial chicanery is another worry. Just how far will the impact of a restructured Fannie Mae go in the real estate and thus consumer world?
And of course, there's the whole "sudden" revelation of problems with Merck's (MRK:NYSE) Vioxx causing heart attacks. I wrote at the time that the cynic in me wondered how much of that "new" study was simply a result of Wall Street forcing more disclosure on these studies and their data. Well, today's "news" that Pfizer (PFE:NYSE) has found that its COX-2 inhibitor causes a skin reaction sure doesn't make the cynic in me quiet down, now does it?
These all could provide some great bricks in the Street's "wall of worry," but they also are things that simply keep me up at night, as I have put on a lot of long exposure especially during the late summer collapse. I'll be back with some less bearish rants next.
Gary B. Smith:
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PFE saab üha soodsamalt
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Netflix Shorts, Look Out for Miller
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
10/15/2004 9:31 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by James J. Cramer
Netflix (NFLX:Nasdaq) BULLISH
Price: $17.43 | 52-Week Range: $13.85-$39.77
Bill Miller might like Netflix so much that he buys it outright.
He's big enough to do what he wants, and I think he will.
If you're short the stock, cover.
Position: None
Will Bill Miller become the next Victor Kiam? Will he like Netflix (NFLX:Nasdaq - commentary - research) so much that he buys the company?
Sometimes when you are a manager and you have unlimited firepower, you like to play stock god. Miller's been doing that with Netflix, standing there and buying the stock in the face of really deteriorating business conditions for the industry. He doubled his stake right when the company was on the precipice and now that it is over the cliff with its outlook, the question isn't "Will he sell it?," it's "Will he buy the rest of it?," like the late Victor Kiam did with Remington when he liked the razor so much, he bought the company.
Of course, Miller doesn't have to worry about doing it today. He's got a good net-asset-value thing going because Jordan Rohan's using a $180 target price for Google (GOOG:Nasdaq - commentary - research), so shareholders in Legg Mason Value Trust may not even feel the Netflix blow. But I have come to believe that there are managers that are so big that they can do whatever the heck they want, and Miller's in that class.
I say he buys.
If you are short Netflix because you heard me say on Jim Cramer's RealMoney Radio that it was a Danger Zone stock, a short, I say, "Cover now!," before Miller steps up to the plate and "Kiams" the thing into the left center upper deck bleachers.
Nice trade. -
Erinevalt näiteks SNDK-st on NFLXi rallimise oht tunduvalt suurem, seetõttu ma praeguseks $10 juurest täiesti väljas.
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Nokia upgraded to Buy from Hold at Legg Mason
Legg Mason upgrades NOK to Buy from Hold following in-line results. Firm believes that demand should be strong this season and that the co is committed to regaining scale advantage through price cuts. Firm also believes that investors should be encouraged by the co's more open-minded approach to customers, manufacturing, and sourcing, which it will likely point out at its analyst day in three weeks. -
LHV, eks teil ole ju ka meesmodelle :-)
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Olen minagi nuud truu aktsionarina Netflixi (NFLX) klient...vahemalt kaheks nadalaks - niikaua kestab tasuta laenutamine:)
Aga filmivalik ja kogu lehekulg tundusid taitsa asjalikud, ega see rekordkasum muidu poleks tulnud. Vara on veel firmat maha kanda... -
Mis netflixist praegu arvata? Olen momendil otsimas head investeerimisvõimalust ning turu valuline reageering Blockbusteri vasturünnakule on pakkumas küllaltki head sisenemisvõimalus. Mis LHV tiim arvab ja mis võis olla hetkeprognoos aktsiahinna kujunemise osas?
B. -
Aasta lõpp on pro-le olnud üsna negatiivne -NFLX, PFE, PARS ... Soovitus kõigile uueks aastaks - siit võib saada küll ideid, aga kui investeerite siis mõelge ikka ise
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Noh, PRO'l on olnud ka häid picke, MOSY, MICU jne. NFLX soovitati 10 kandis.
Aga muidugi scorecard puudub endiselt, nii et raske öelda, kas see mõttekas service on:). Kristjan ainsana on oma straddle-performance ära teinud.
Ma olen näinud ka USA investment-serviceid, mis jäävad rängalt turutootlusele alla, aga inimesed ikka ostavad iga nende picki, niipea kui ilmub, nii et aktsia liigub kohe ülesse.. -
täica päri Fitiga straddlitega on see aasta päris hästi jopanud ( ma arvan et see on päris õige sõna, sest see on pigem loterii ). Loomulikult kui pakkuda erinevaid asju välja siis lähevad osad ka täppi. Samas kõik on ok, sest kui midagi ei tee siis ei juhtu ka midagi. Ja tegelikult on asjad isegi põhjendatud olnud. Sry olen veidi vodka mõju all - jõulu pidu oli. Igal juhul LHV PRO-le ja kõikidele tulevasi pühi jne. Muuseas Cardinals on päris asi:)
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to rick12
Jup, täitsa nõus, et investeerimisvaliku peab lõppude lõpuks ikkagi ise tegema, kuid tahtsin lihtsalt LHV update'i saada NFLX osas uue info valguses. Kuna ma ise PRO kasutaja ei ole, siis ei tea ka seal all toimuvast ning kuna NFLX leidis ka siin foorumis piisavalt laia kajastamist, siis olen teda juba pikemalt jälginud, kuid ei ole seni julgenud raha alla panna. Aga nüüd on juba täitsa huvitav:)
Aga häid pühi tõpoolest kõigile!
B. -
Rick, sinu sulest on pidevalt kosta kriitikat LHV Pro kohta, ometi pole sa Pro klient, ega lugenud neid Pro ideid. Ma küll ei julgeks nii aktiivselt sõna võtta teemal mille kohta mul eriti infot pole, aga eks inimesed on erinevad.
Kui Sa oleks Pro klient, siis sa teaks, et:
a) NFLXi soovitati osta $10 juurest, seega idee praegu 10% jagu plussis;
b) puhtalt PFE pole kunagi olnud Pro idee.
Straddle on olnud minu idee ja seega olen selle koha pealt ehk veidi subjektiivne, kuid seal on mäng puhtalt tõenäosusele, ... "joppamine" ja "loterii" - mitte eriti intelligentne jutt. -
Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) had better watch out. The steady trickle of announcements coming out of this once-mighty video rental giant just might make people think that things really are as bad as they seem. Today, Blockbuster said it will reduce the monthly charge for its online rental service to $14.99 per month, which sounds like a desperate move to me.
This news comes on the heels of the much-buzzed-about "Blockbuster cancels late fees" news that set my teeth on edge. I agree wholeheartedly with longtime Fool Rick Munarriz's assessment -- that the headlines proclaiming such a cancellation were misleading, since that move was more about extended rental periods than canceled late fees. Not even to mention, under Blockbuster's new plan, there may not be any such thing as "late," but after a certain degree of, let's say, tardiness, you've bought yourself a used DVD at retail price. Let's hear it for games of semantics.
Such a climate really makes me favor Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) when pondering who might win this war for subscribers' hearts, at the very least, although a protracted price war could become a scorched-earth policy for the entire industry. Blockbuster's steady stream of price cuts -- the last of which was a $15.99 promotion as recently as early November, which was covered here -- doesn't seem to be doing the trick if Blockbuster's gone to $14.99 so soon. Meanwhile, the rumble of mighty Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) has echoed across the seas, what with its long-rumored launch of DVD rentals coming to pass in the United Kingdom. (That's two Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks that are making Blockbuster's life pretty darn difficult, come to think of it.) Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), of course, is also in the fray.
Way back in October, Rick predicted that Blockbuster stock is destined to be a dud. Given my own coverage of Blockbuster over the months, it's pretty obvious that I agree with him. Today's price cut may be an aggressive move to undercut opponents, but it smacks more of desperation to me. Further, it will help guarantee that Blockbuster's profitability will be adversely affected in the coming months, just as the company warned in early November.
Like Rick, I think the "canceled late fees" misnomer will prove itself extremely unfriendly to customers, who, once burned, may very well develop a negative view of Blockbuster and even more reason to switch to rivals like Netflix on principle alone. Although low prices such as the new rock bottom that Blockbuster is proposing are often strong incentives for customers who watch their wallets, in certain situations, principle counts for something too. -
mis oleks NFLX prognoos lähemaks 1-2 nädalaks viimase upgrade'i valguses ?
kas viimase 2 päeva 20% ralli seda juba arvestab, või annab ehk veel hoogu juurde ? -
i would short it:)
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Täna ilmselt tuleb väike gap alla.
sB -
Briefing kirjutab: Soleil downgrades NFLX to Hold from Buy...
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NFLX ei tundu veel alla andvat.
sB -
ja surub ülesse
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Ma võtan praegu lühiajaliselt kasumit ja püüan hiljem odavamalt tagasi osta.
NFLX'st jutt siis,
sB -
Netflix (NFLX) +4%. Fit, kuidas short elab?
ja meenutusi varasemast: https://www.lhv.ee/forums/index.cfm?id=70172#33
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"i would short it" ei tähenda, et "i shorted it". Nii et positsiooni pole.
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aga kui kukkund oleks, siis oleks easy moeny olnud? :)
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ah, ära vingu, ma pole kunagi oma möödalaskmisi varjanud. kuidas ZAPZi long elab, kui juba lahmimiseks läks?
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ära närvitse väikse asja pärast, lossi ikka vahel juhtub.
muide, mulle on viimasel ajla ka GM meeldima hakanud (kuigi 30$ on vbla natuke palju aktsia eest) ;) -
Biotechid kauplevad täna hommikul üles, saades tuge nädalavahetusel ASCO'l avaldatud infost. ASCO keskmes olnud Genentech (DNA) on huvitaval kombel hoopis miinuses. Dendreon (DNDN) on ka üpris oodatult ostjaid leidmas. Kuigi enamus juhtkonna poolt avaldatud infot oli juba vana, leidus seal ka üht-teist positiivset. Üks maja on täna aktsiate reitingutki tõstmas.
Üldiselt ütleb sisetunne, et biotech peaks peale esimest positiivset reaktsiooni tagasi tõmbuma. Ootused olid enne ASCO't kõrged ning mitmed suured tegijad jäid neile veidi alla. (DNA, ONXX).
sB -
Netflix (NFLX)'i upgrade TWP poolt on juba praegu müüjaid leidmas. Love the action, love the stock. Aga minu arvates on praegune ralli natuke liiga agressiivne olnud.
sB -
kas tegi oodatud gapi ära ?
päeva lõpp näitab ehk siiski jõudu ülespoole ? -
Netflix: Wal-Mart says to discontinue its current DVD Rentals service... points customers to NFLX!
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hetkel NFLX 3 punkti üleval: 18,50
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Mnjah, 20,54$ natuke ülereageeritud, peaks putid krabama.
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Congrats LHV pro tiimile on NFLX. Vahet pole, kas WMT diili nähti ette või mitte, igal juhul double. :)
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marti837: palju putte ostsid?
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ma arvan et ta krabas goldman sachsilt 1000 aprilli 20 putti soodsa hinnaga, ähvardades brokeri lapsi. :D
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tra, juuni siis.
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Lapsi ja naisi ma ei puutu:) kahjuks aga optsioonidega eelturul ei kaubelda.
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a mehi puutud?
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NFLX short interest 39%. Rohkesti valu viimasel ajal seal ja just selle tõttu viimane tõus ka nii tugev ja ei pruugi lõppeda koheselt.
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kus võiks näha short interesti?
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NFLX, näiteks siit
finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NFLX
Share Statistics -
BusinessWeek kirjutab NFLXi kohta nii:
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/may2005/tc20050520_3983_tc024.htm -
nflx avaldas eile tulemused ning järelturul kukkus <20%
kuigi tulemused olid läbi aegade parimad, keskendus lambakari analüütikute prognoosidele
oh häda, nendega võrreldes jääb NFLX ootustele alla !!!
Samas jätkab NFLX enda antud lubaduste täitmist
- yoy earnings growth (>50%)
- subscriber growth (20m aastateks 2010-2012)
Reed Hastings kordas ka varem juba teada juttu VOD ohu kohta, mis viimasel kuul on aktsiat tampinud:
- VOD ei ohusta nende äri lähima 3-5 aasta jooksul
- NFLX teeb ettevalmistusi, et VOD-s kanda kinnitada(kui aeg selleks küps) ning täpsem announcment plaanide kohta avaldatakse järgmise aasta alguses
mulle tundub eilne järelturu kukkumine $19 juurde ülereageeringuna
ning võiks pakkuda pikaajalisele investorile head sisenenmise/juurdeostmise kohta
