Börsipäev 21. oktoober
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Alustuseks väike pilk eile peale turgu avaldatud olulisematele tulemustele ja sellele kuidas vastavad aktsiad eelturul käituvad.
Altera (ALTR) +2,82% ületas kasumiootusi, kuid käive jäi prognoositust nõrgemaks, ka kärbiti järgmise kvartali prognoose, kuid turg ei näi sellest hoolivat
Amgen (AMGN) -2,41% - ületas III kvartali prognoose napilt nii käibe kui kasumi osas, tõstis ka järgneva kvartali prognoose, samas on juhtivate ravimite Aranesp ja Enbrel müük oodatust nõrgem, mis sunnib turuosalisi kahtlema pikemaajalise kasvu perspeketiivides.
eBay (EBAY) +6,59% - ületas lõppenud ja kergitas käimaoleva kvartali prognoose, prognoosid järgmiseks aastaks tulid küll ootuste alumisse äärde, kuid turuosalised kirjutavad selle ettevõtte kombe arvele jätta prognoosid tagasihoidlikeks ära hoidmaks nende hilisemat vähendamist
PMC-Sierra (PMC) +3,89% - peale varasemat käibehoiatust kasum inline, käive ikkagi alla ootuste, prognoosid järgnevaks kvataliks tõmmati alla, kuid turgu näib lohutavat tellimuste stabiilne kasv alates juulikuisest madalseisust
Siebel Systems (SEBL) +0,27% inline tulemused, inline prognoosid
Symantec (SYMC) +3,99% - ületas kasumiootusi, käive ootuste ülemises ääres, järgmise kvartali ja järgneva aasta prognoos tõstetud
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Rev Shark:
"Character cannot be developed in ease and quiet. Only through experiences of trial and suffering can the soul be strengthened, vision cleared, ambition inspired and success achieved."
-- Helen Keller
Success in the stock market depends heavily on the ability to uncover and understand its changing character. The major market indices tell only a small part of the story. It is the development of new trends, the shifting between sectors and the more subtle responses to the macro economic and political environment that tell the complete story of the market.
Catching developing trends at an early point is the way to produce big profits. A couple of good examples are the rise in oil that started at the end of 2003. Riding that wave throughout 2004 would have guaranteed a great year. Catching the top in semiconductors in January was another very profitable trend.
Not all trends or themes last as long as those two but they usually play out over a long enough period that the gains can be quite substantial if you aren't too slow in uncovering them.
Throughout most of the summer the dominate theme was the continued strength in oils as well as "old industry" stocks like steel, farm equipment and trucking. As those groups dominated, other key groups -- technology, retailers, biotechnology -- did little, if anything.
We are starting to see signs now that some of these trends are reversing. For example, steel stocks have broken down badly over the past several weeks while many technology stocks have found support and even turned up.
As I discussed yesterday, conditions look ripe into the end of the year for a rotation out of "old industry" stocks and into technology. The market's traditional year-end strength is one key factor that supports this view. When the market is strong, investors tend to gravitate toward the fastest-moving stocks and those tend to be technology.
That leads to a second factor, which is that fund managers who need to bolster their results quickly tend to pursue the high-beta technology stocks. Nothing moves faster and better than a technology stock with momentum.
The third factor supporting a rotation into technology is technical considerations. The defensive, old industry stocks are very extended compared to technology stocks. I was a bit surprised to look at the Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) chart recently and conclude that it was pretty attractive. There is good basing action since the gap down in September and it is slowly turning up as it moves through the 50-day simple moving average.
Technology rotation is the theme I'm focusing on right now. I don't expect it to be smooth but there are promising signs that it is developing.
We have a mixed open to start the day with technology stocks showing strength and the DJIA and S&P 500 struggling a bit. eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq) had a good quarter and is trading up strongly this morning on a couple of upgrades despite cutting its 2005 forecast. There seems to be quite a bit of consternation over the ebay strength but Merrill Lynch's explanation is that the reduced guidance has already been factored in. We'll have to see how eBay develops over the course of the day but it is another illustration of the renewed interest in technology stocks.
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Paar taala veel ja EBAY on 200 USD, split oli ka muidugi mõnda aega tagasi, seega õige number on 100. Odav kindlasti mitte. Shortida? Ei ole eelist, vaata juttu "Hansapank 400" foorumis.
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G. B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
Higher on strong earnings/guidance: EBAY +6.3% (also Smith Barney upgrade), VRSN +11% (also Lehman upgrade), CTXS +8.4%, DECK +7.2%, T +4.4%, SMSI +18%, GVHR +13%, PMCS +3.6%, SYMC +3.3% (also Avondale upgrade), CAT +2.7%.... Other News: GOOG +2.7% (in sympathy with EBAY; also co fixes security hole that could have let hackers change its pages), YHOO +2.6% (in sympathy with EBAY), ISON +11% (webcast presentation today of the NeutroTest prototype), SNAK +13%, REDF +11%, IDNX +6.9% (announces purchase from U.S customs worth about $700 mln), VISG +6.2% (gets series of contracts totaling $10.9 mln), ALA +5.6% (wins SBC contract)... Under $3: AVNX +14% (rising on SBC/ALA contract as ALA is a 10% customer of AVNX), TMTA +12% (announces licensing pact), Stem Cells continue momentum from Gov Schwarzenegger endorsement: STEM +8%, ASTM +7.3% (co also initiates patient enrollment in a clinical trial), GERN +2.4%.
Gapping Down on Earnings/Guidance
DV -23% (Merrill, Jefferies downgrades), MXO -20%, ERES -18% (also Roth downgrade), SPRT -11%, EPIC -10%, S -7.8%, ELNK -5.2%, MEDI -4.7%, MYL -3%, AMGN -2.5%, AIG -1.9%. -
hm miks chartman veidi suuremat pilti ei vaata. nasdaq-i augustist alanud tõusutrend peab ju väga hästi.
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RGEN +27%
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EBAY $100 käes...
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ERIC tugevas miinuses? Ootused olid vist kole kõrged.
Kindlasti kosub päevaga. -
Ericssoni graafik: viimase 3 kuuga ca +33%, aastaga ca +100%. Selliseid tõusunumbreid arvestades vist küll head tulemused juba hinnas sees ja pole ime, et kesine outlook languse põhjustab. Päeva peale kosumine on küll kahtlane, kui Stockholmis saadaksegi esialgsest ehmatusest üle, siis peale 14.00 algab USA eelturg ja seal uus müügisurve.
