Börsipäev 27. oktoober

USA futuurid on päeva alustamas kergelt negatiivselt. Kestvuskaupade tellimused tulid välja oodatust natuke nõrgemad (0.2% vs 0.5%) ja naftahind püsib endiselt kõrgemal $55 tasemest. Kuulda on ennustusi hinna jõudmisest järgmisel aastal $80 väärtusele. Kindlamat suunda annavab ehk täna strateegiliste varude statistika. Dollar endiselt euro suhtes nõrk.

Majandusuudiste kohapealt võivad turgu täna mõjutada ka new home sales statistika (ootused 1150K juures). Tulemas ka Fedi Beige Book.

Tänast tulemusteparaadi juhivad Procter & Gamble (PG) ja Boeing (BA). Boeing lõi käibeprognoosi ja kasumit, lisaks näeb tulevikku positiivsena. Põhjuseks ka madalamad maksudest tulenevad kulud. Aktsia eelturul 2% kõrgemal. PG ületas samuti ootusi.

Adobe (ADBE) tõstis neljanda kvartali kasumiprognoose. Kaupleb eelturul 1.4-protsendilises plussis. Tugevust näitavad ka Hiina tehnoloogiafirmad SINA (+19%) ja SOHU (+13%). Storage tarkvara firma Veritas (VRTS) tubli kasumi tõttu eelturul +6%.

Rev Shark:

"Success is more a function of consistent common sense than it is of genius."

-- An Wang

What has made this market particularly difficult in recent weeks is its inconsistency. Rallies have been followed by failures, and failures by recoveries. Positive technical action has failed to produce sustained momentum. A rotation into new market leaders such as technology looks like it is beginning and then it stalls and old leaders such as homebuilders and steel reassert themselves.

If you have a time frame of more than a day or two, that makes for some tough trading. The gains you earn one day are given back the next. We saw last week that it can be extremely dangerous to trust that a big move, on strong breadth and heavy volume, will continue. The market has another opportunity today to see if it can build on strong technical action but there are some good reasons to be cautious.

First, oil has continued to hover over the $55 area. The market ignored the rise yesterday but it is likely to remain a focus, particularly as Department of Energy inventory numbers are considered later today. Oil is a convenient and obvious excuse for selling and until there is some softening it will continue to be a major obstacle for this market.

Second, one of the other major concerns at the moment is that October is the fiscal year-end for many large funds and some of the action may be nothing more than window dressing. Even if funds are not inclined to manipulate closing prices, many market participants turn window dressing into a self-fulfilling prophecy. If a large contingent of the market thinks window dressing is going to take place, then they will anticipate that action and create it on their own.

Another factor that led to the rally yesterday was some relief over Eliot Spitzer announcing that he will not be seeking criminal charges against insurance companies involved in the bid-rigging scandal. That news helped boost financial stocks and was a big factor in the point rise in the DJIA. However, it may not serve as a continuing catalyst for the market.

We had some good earnings reports last night but mostly in secondary stocks that will not have any major market impact. There is some aggressive trading in sectors such as Internet retail and we are likely to see pockets of that again today, particularly in the Chinese Internet stocks, which posted good earnings last night.

Early indications are mixed. We have durable goods and new-home sales reports coming up that will affect the mood but it is oil and window dressing that are the main factors at work now.

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