Börsipäev 4. november - valimispohmell
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Rev Shark:
Strong emotions generated by the presidential election have produced quite a bit of market volatility in recent days. Much of the recent action has simply been caused by efforts to game what folks anticipate, how things will actually turn out, and the reactions as events unfold. That is all largely behind us now and our next job is to figure out what the market is going to focus on and what the prevailing perceptions will be.
Not only are the political games winding down but so is the third-quarter earnings season. Geopolitical events other than the price of oil and a struggling dollar seem to be fairly muted. Economic reports have hardly been stellar but the market doesn't seem overly concerned about the mediocre data that have been posted lately.
With election-generated emotions and macro concerns cooling off, the focus is likely to be on the merits of individual stocks. The major driving force into the end of the year should be a scramble to find some good solid stocks that have the potential to produce quick gains.
In a benign news environment market participants tend to gravitate toward the pockets of action. If Chinese Internet and mining stocks are hot and there is little else happening on the macro front, that is where the money is going to flow.
When the macro environment is quiet, we also tend to see a greater focus on fundamentals. Strategy trades that focus on major economic trends or world events aren't going to produce results if nothing much is happening. That means if you want to make money you need to find individual stocks that look good and hope that the market discovers them as well.
For those reasons, as well as positive seasonality and a number of other things, I feel optimistic that we will close out the year on a positive note. However, at the moment the indices have to deal with a bit of an emotional hangover. Things became a little frothy as the election unfolded and we are now a bit extended. A rest or a consolidation at this point would make me even more optimistic about a year-end rally.
It should be a good market for individual stock picking and I'll be focusing on my research and chart reviews in the days ahead.
We have a soft open on the way. Overseas markets gave back gains as financials exerted some pressure. Oil is steady and gold is perking back up as the dollar struggles. Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) monthly guidance looks a little shaky and we'll have to keep an eye on the retail sector. We have the weekly unemployment data coming up and that should give us a jiggle or two.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
Up on strong earnings/guidance: ECST +20.6%, TALK +14%, ELOS +9%, HANS +6.5%, TEVA +3.2%..... Other News: PENN +16.1% (to acquire AGY+12%), GIVN +3.2%, TASR +2.3% (Houston City Council approves purchase), MOND +2.3% (co and STZ sign definitive merger agreement), STEM +1.9% (bounce after 24% drop yesterday on 38 mln shares), RIMM +1.3% (Telefonica Moviles introduces BlackBerry Connect in Spain), WTSLA +3.8% (announces financing negotiations).
Gapping Down
Down on disappointing earnings and/or guidance: DITC -27% (also First Albany downgrade), DIGE -25% (also Wells Fargo downgrade), ADRX -24% (also JP Morgan downgrade), SYNC -19%, ACLS -17%, BOBJ -17% (also Pac Growth downgrade), HOTT -9.3% (also weak Oct comps), MGIC -8.5%, AIRN -8.4% (also Roth and Harris, Nesbitt downgrades), MAMA -7.5%, BVF -6.8%, GYMB -4.7% (also weak Oct comps), NTES -4.5%, QCOM -3.7%, WLDA -2.8%, CEPH -2.8%... Other News: ASYT -19% (postpones reporting Q2 results; Deutsche and Pru downgrades), IPXL -12% (delays earnings report; BofA downgrade), JOSB -10.5% (weak same store sales), AUDC -8.1% (announces convertible offering), LEN -5.5% (sees delays in home closings), BIIB -3% (Goldman downgrade), KLAC -2% (BofA downgrade), AMAT -1.8% (BofA downgrade). -
Turud avanemas kerges miinuses, Nasdaqi futuurid on 4,5 punkti miinuses, S&P 500 futuurid punkti plussis. Presidendivalimised on seekord kiirelt ja õnnelikult lõppenud ning tähelepanu majandustulemustele ja majanduse olukorrale.
Töötu abiraha taotluste arv langes nädalaga 332 000 peale, samas oodati numbrit 340 000, positiivne oli ka kolmanda kvartali produktiivsuse oodatust suurem tõus 1,9% versus 1,5%. Jaemüüginäitajate kiire kasv septembris oli tingitud autode müügi suurest kasvust, ilma autode müügira kasvas jaemüük 0,6% ehk kaks korda oodatust rohkem.
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LHV Pro all kaks straddle ideed järgmiseks nädalaks.
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Nafta ja dollari negatiivne korrelatsioon lõhutud, täna USD alla ja ka nafta kõvasti kukkumas
