Börsipäev 8. nov - dollar kukub...
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Futuurid kergelt miinuses ning dollar kriibib uusi põhjasid. LHV tänane turukomitee siiski ootab dollari tugevnemist praegustelt tasemetelt. Seda ca aasta perspektiivis.
Uudiseid on täna hommikul mitmeid:
- Kristjani straddle kandidaat Pixar (PIXR) sai Deutsche käest downgrade Sell peale. Põhjuseks valuatsioon. Incredibles debüüt oli võimas, kuid oodatud.
- Merrill Lynch tõstab Tarkvarasektori reitingut Overweight peale ning Internet kukkus Underweight peale. Mitte just monster call aga neil on olnud varem õigus.
- Netease (NTES) saab Lehmani käest upgrade.
- Barrons kirjutab täna, et terasetootja US Steel (X) on kuni 50% allahinnatud. Usun, et uudise peale tekib küll lühike ostusurve, mida kasutavad ära karud. Tsükliline äri ning tundub, et tsükkel on pöördumas.
- JP Morgan tõstab mitme kõvakettatootja reitinguid.
- Netflix (NFLX) võib saada ära ostetud mõne suurema konkurendi poolt. Pot. ostjatena mainitakse AMZN, YHOO ning IACI. Netflix on keeruline situatsioon, kuid põhimõtteliselt näen ma praegustel tasemetel päris huvitavat riski/tulu suhet.
- Keegi on märganud, mis viimaste päevadega on juhtunud selliste aktsiatega nagu RIMM; AAPL ning GOOG? Apple puhul on märgata olnud suuri koguseid putte. First Albany mainis eelmise nädala lõpus oma pos. analüüsis, et short interest on väga väike. Mida see näitab? Kõik ootavad võimast jõulumüüki, mis kindlasti ka saabub. Mis saab aga edasi?
Graafik (briefing.com):
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Betti, sooviksin teada, mille põhineb LHV turukomitee ootus $ tugevnemisele.
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Ei saa chati sisse!! "[LHV CHAT] Viga, ei õnnestu parooli kontroll, proovi uuseti!"
Kasutajanimi ja parool on õiged -
reioinvest
Chat OK nüüd! -
thx kiire reageeringu eest
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Oplink liigub ülesse, Hiina investeerimisfondid on kuulduste järgi ostupoolel
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Ali,
Pigem Kudlow and Cramer from Fri nite :)
sB -
Rev Shark:
The big question as we start a new week is whether the market can keep its winning streak going as the post-election glow fades. The S&P 500 has been up nine days in a row, and the Nasdaq is up eight out of nine days. A good jobs report on Friday helped keep the bullish cause rolling, but even the most ardent bull is likely to admit that we are a bit technically extended at this point.
One of the key ways to judge the market's health is to watch how it acts when it is resting. As the euphoria of major gains subsides, do market participants come to realize that their recent buying binge was ill-advised and without a sound basis, or do they regroup and reaffirm their convictions and prepare to keep things moving once they have rested a bit?
The action during a period of rest can provide very good clues as to the true character of a market. Support levels become apparent, and we can see how well they hold. Do we hold the nearest levels, or do we pull back deeper? How shallow are the dips? Volume during a pullback is also very important. If it is strong and broad, then we know that professional sellers are liquidating and not looking for a rebound after a rest. A lighter-volume pullback would be a sign of healthy profit-taking that would set up further upside as stock moves into the hands of stronger, more bullish buyers.
We have had very strong upside volume lately, which is a sign that big funds are fueling this move. If we pull back on lighter volume, as I believe is likely, that would be a sign that we are setting the stage for higher prices into the end of the year. On the other hand, heavy-volume distribution days would indicate professional liquidation and be a clue that we need to be more cautious.
The market has been acting very healthy lately, but there are a few areas of concerns to keep in mind. The dollar has been very weak lately, and that has been fueling a run in gold stocks. The stock market has not been too affected by this over the past year, but eventually it will take a toll on foreign investors who are hurt by currency losses. Another troubling sign was some pretty aggressive profit-taking in some of the high-beta technology leaders such as Research In Motion (RIMM:Nasdaq), Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq), Ask Jeeves (ASKJ:Nasdaq) and Google (GOOG:Nasdaq). That may have just been some isolated action, but we need to keep an eye on what is happening there.
We have a few news events that are likely to stir things up a bit. The FOMC will be making its interest rate decision on Wednesday at 2:15 pm ET. Current expectations are for a quarter-point hike, but the good jobs report on Friday may raise concerns about a more aggressive approach in the future.
We also have earnings this week from Cisco (CSCO:NYSE) and Dell (DELL:Nasdaq). Both stocks have been participating in the recent rally, and it will be interesting to see how much good news has already been discounted by this action.
Early action is slightly negative. Asian stocks were soft because of concerns about the weak dollar, and Europe was mixed. Crude oil is ticking down, but overall it's pretty quiet so far this morning.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
MEDX +13% (co and BMY form development collaboration for MDX-010 antibody), NOVL +11% (settles anti-trust claim with Microsoft), AGEN +17%, ABIX +7.3%, VTIV +7.2% (beats by $0.03; guides above consensus), ELN +7.2% (positive Antegren data), ADSX +6.9% (announces first DOC shipments of RFID tags in Canada), TASR +5.4% (announces TSA approval of TASER devices for use on aircraft), LONG +5.2% (momentum from 57% move last week), ENTU +5.1%, X +4.4% (stock is undervalued -- Barron's), NFLX +4.3% (TheDeal.com says there could be a merger), NTES +4.1% (Lehman upgrade), BIIB +3% (positive Antegren data), RIMM +3% (Merrill positive comments), TOPT +2.9%, EBAY +2.7% (added to JP Morgan Focus List with $130 tgt) Up in sympathy: YHOO +1.8%, GOOG +1.2%... Under $3: MPE +22%, VCMP +18%, BWEB +17%, GNVC +16% (positive clinical data), OPLK +13%.
Gapping Down
SBL -7.4% (delays 10-Q filing, co plans to restate revs and EPS), PIXR -4.4% (cut to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank; Incredibles debut weekend a bit light), GMST -3.3% (Smith Barney downgrade), CVC -3.1% (8-K filing), TEVA -2.8%, HMY -2.7%, HOFF -71% (completes financing; provides update on recapitalization), TRPH -15% (class action lawsuits filed).
