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Börsipäev 10. november - intressimäärad fookuses

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  • Rev Shark:

    Throughout most of the 1990s the technology sector was led by four stocks. This group of leaders was often referred to as the "Four Horsemen" -- Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq), Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq), Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq). All four still are huge entities that dominate their particular sectors but they have not been true leaders for some time.

    Since the Nasdaq peak in early 2000 none of the four have been able to make it back to old highs and they have seldom been the leaders when we have rallied. The true leadership in the market has been in stocks that are of smaller size but growing at a faster pace. A good recent example is Google (GGOG:Nasdaq) in the Internet sector, which is likely to be a stock that leads the way as rallies and pullbacks develop.

    The difficulty in determining which stocks are true leaders stems from confusing the importance of size vs. the importance of growth. There are plenty of big, stodgy companies out there that dominate their industries but that doesn't necessarily make them leaders. The leaders are the companies that are taking market share, developing new products and producing steady top and bottom line growth.

    Cisco is a good example of a big sector-dominating company that is no longer a major market leader. Certainly Cisco provides some clues as to what is going on in the networking sector, but there are smaller, faster-moving companies that are leading the way in that group.

    It is pretty clear by the market's reaction to the mediocre Cisco earnings report that it is no longer considered to be the leader it once was. A similar report five years ago would have the major indices gapping down big to start the day. Not only are they not gapping down today but we have buyers stepping up in premarket action.

    The big, well-known companies will always attract media attention but that doesn't make them leaders. If you want to determine what is going to drive this market we will have to look beyond the Four Horsemen of yore.

    The leadership reigns are going to shift quickly this morning from individual companies to the Federal Open Market Committee, which releases its interest rate decision at 2:15 p.m. EST. A quarter-point hike is widely expected but, once again, it the accompanying policy statement that will be the market driver. Market participants will be looking for clues as to how aggressive the FOMC is likely to be in the future.

    Technically the indices have been holding up impressively even though they are extended. A sharp drop in crude oil has helped but the major driving force recently has simply been fear of being left out.

    Regardless of the rather lofty technical status of the indices there continue to be excellent trading opportunities in individual stocks. Don't allow yourself to be blinded to those possibilities by focusing on deposed leaders like Cisco and the overbought conditions of the indices.

    We have a positive open on the way. Oil continues to be pressured, which is helping matters, and I suspect that some shorts are feeling a bit squeezed by the indifference to Cisco's results.

    Things will likely settle down in front of the FOMC decision so be careful about being sucked into the positive emotion we have at the moment.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Eile avaldas järelturul oma kvartalitulemused Cisco Systems (CSCO), mis vastasid varasemale kärbitud prognoosile, pettumuse valmistas küll järgmise kvartali prognoos, kuid suurt müügilainet see endaga kaasa ei toonud, eelturul on aktsia siiski üle 3% miinuses.

    Turule positiivseid sündmusi jagus seevastu rohkesti, nafta hind on langenud 47,3 dollarile barreli eest ning soe sügis ning piisavad naftavarud talveks viitavad edasisele langusele. USA kaubavahetusdefitsiit langes 3,7% 51 6 miljardile dollarile ning töötu abiraha taotluste arv langes nädalaga 2000 võrra 333 000 taotluseni, mis oli oodatust väiksem number.

    Wall Street Journal avaldas loo Microsoftist (MSFT), firma peaks lähipäevadel esitlema oma otsingumootorit. See on ohuks eelkõige Yahoo (YHOO) ja Google (GOOG) äritegevusele.

    Kell 20.15 avaldab oma intressimäärade otsuse USA Föderaalreservi nõukogu, oodatakse 0.25% intressimäära tõstmist, mille turg peaks ka alla neelama.

  • Gapping Up

    ANLT +54% (momentum from 225% move yesterday), EYE +31% (being acquired by AVO), JRJC +14% (reports Q3 results), TRIB +11% (gets FDA waiver for Uni-Gold Recombigen HIV test), RSTI +10% (reports SepQ), NVTL +5.9% (positive commentary by analysts), ORCT +5.3%, INCX +4.2% (momentum from 33% move yesterday), BOBJ +4.2% (Morgan Stanley upgrade), EGHT +3.2% (follow-through interest following FCC ruling on VoIP yesterday), GOAM +2.8% (continues recent momentum), TASR +2.2% (CEO appears on CNBC).... Under $3: STKR +27% (to acquire optical lens maker Navitar), ARTX +18% (reports Q3), DFIB +9.1% (co and GE expand distribution agreement), WTSLA +8.9% (carryover from news of interim funding pact), PFSW +5.6%.

    Gapping Down

    Down on disappointing news/guidance: CSCO -3.6%, LGND -10.6% (also First Albany downgrade), BFLY -11.4%, AAII -9.1%, DHB -4.6% (also Roth downgrade), GMST -4.5%, DNDN -4.6%.... Other News: FLYI -20% (co says bankruptcy is possible), AVO -9.8% (to acquire EYE; Harris Nesbitt downgrade), PFE -3.5% (New study links Pfizer's Bextra, similar to Vioxx, to heart attacks -- NY Times), S -3.1% (cautious WSJ article and UBS comments), IDTI -2.4% (in sympathy with CSCO), SNIC -2.1%, CHKP -2% (UBS downgrade), WEBX -1.9% (IBM plans Web meeting service, takes aim at WebEx - Reuters).
  • Paistab et USA kaubavahetusdefitsiidi avaldamine mõjus ergastavalt valuutaturule. Neljandat kuud järjest ületati 50 miljardi dollari tase (defitsiidi suurus). UUdis kergitas euro korraks üle 1,3 taseme (1,3007), kuid sellele järgnes kiire kukkumine. Eriti drastiline on dollari tugevnemine jeeni vastu, poole tunniga sisuliselt 106>107 jeenile dollari eest. Euro vastu hetkel dollar tasemel 1.2863.
  • FLWS - tulemused olid juba eelmisel nädalal, midagi uut nagu ei paista, niisama müüakse?
  • FLWS kukub veidi jah. Ühtegi head põhjust sellele ei leiagi nagu. Teine holiday play REDE on küll viimasel ajal pigem lemmikuks muutunud viimasel ajal.

    1-800-FLOWERS.com (FLWS) on LHV Pro valik. Soovituse ajal oli hind $8.50 juures. Huvitav firma, mille tegelik kasumlikkus peaks lähemate aastate jooksul aktsiate hinnale päris positiivselt mõjuma.

    sB
  • 14:03 INTC Intel doubles cash dividend; authorizes repurchase of 500 mln shares of common stock (22.76 -0.29)

    Ilmselt vesi pullide veskile (lühiajaliselt). Samas CSCO eile õhtul teatas sama suurest aktsiate tagasiostust ($10 mld)..ja ei midagi. Firmad liiga suured.

    sB
  • Olen mõelnu, et konkreetseid aktsiaid ei tarvitse dividendid ja tagasiost aidata. Aga lubage, kuhugi peab ju need miljardid (dollarid) tagasi investeerima. Majandusele kokkuvõttes siiski kasulik.
  • FED tõstis intresse 25 bp ja väitis, et "inflatsioon on kontrolli all". Nagu oodatud ja turg suurt ei liikunud. Tasub siiski vaadata reaktsioone tänase päeva lõpus ja homsel päeval.
  • Homset aktiivsust võib natuke pärssida Veterans' day... Bondmarket on ka kinni...
  • TZOO, GOOG kukkusid punasesse. YHOO, EBAY nõrkus. TASR session lows. Momentum voolab välja?

    sB
  • PIXR - selle nädala straddle idee tulemustega homme peale turgu näikse taas kauplejaid rõõmustavat, :)
  • Kukkunud on jah kõvasti. Kuigi positsiooni soetus (4,93) oli straiki lähedal, on kasumilävi veel kaugel.
    Loodame langemist 75,5 lähedale, et nulliga välja saada.
  • puhkuse

    kuna Sa siis positsiooni soetasid? selle nädala alguses? eelmisel nädalal 80 strike juurest positsiooni võtnud said PIXR 85 juurde tõustes positsiooni calle vähemaks müües deltaneutraalseks teha ja peaksid nüüd juba kenas kasumis olema ...

  • Soetasin esmaspäeval, kui 80,6-le kolksatas. Volatiilsus hakkas vales suunas kerima.
  • PIXR siiski väga vaikne olnud enne tulemusi, ning kuigi positsioon on miinuses, lähtun siiski esialgsest plaanist ning sulgen enne tulemusi 65-70% positsioonist.

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