Börsipäev 16. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Cody Willard:
What a rally. The market just won't quit as the cash on the sidelines is finally being put to work, and the overriding theme in this market is the strong bid beneath. All hints of a selloff are met with a strong bid, as buyers continue to want in on the action for fear of being left behind. It's a strong dynamic out there.
Norm Conley had an insightful post about what long-only managers are thinking right now. They watch the semis trade so strongly -- even in the midst of the terrible fundamentals in the industry -- and begin to wonder if the stocks are signaling a big improvement ahead. And if that's the case, and if semis are going to resume a leadership role in this market (heresy, I know, but what if!), then long money managers really need to be getting long these stocks sooner rather than later. And that becomes a self-fulfilling cycle, at least in the near term.
The problem would come if the fundies don't actually improve. And while we know that end-user demand has remained quite robust (from Ingram Micro, Wal Mart, Best Buy, etc.), the overcapacity and excess inventories in the supply chain might or might not have been worked through. That would mean that the fundies wouldn't get much better and would get much worse if, say, end-user demand were to hit another "soft patch" like we saw this summer. And that would mean that the fund managers who are quietly piling into these stocks now would want to run for the hills. And that would mean that these stocks would take a serious hit.
In the meantime, the bid remains and this get-me-in rally phase will simply last until it doesn't.
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S&P 500 futuurid on 2,5 punkti miinuses, Nasdaqi futuurid 6,5 punkti miinuses. Inflatsioonile viitav uudis avaldati täna kell 15.30, nimelt on tootjahinnaindeks teinud oodatust tunduvalt suurema hüppe ning oktoobris kasvas indeks 1,6% (prognoositi 0,6&), Föderaalreservi poolt jälgitav indeks, mis ei arvesta toiduaineid ja energiakandjaid kerkis samuti oodatust kiiremini ehk 0,3% (konsensus 0,1%).
Uudis toetas küll hetkeliselt dollarit, sest viitab inflatsiooni kiirenemisele ning ka eeldatavalt kiiremale intressimäärade tõusule, kuid edasine reaktsioon valuutaturul oli sarnane oktoobri tööjõuraportile järgnenule - headele uudistele reageeriti väga negatiivselt. Euro on taas testimas 1,3 eur/usd taset.
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Gapping Up
Up on strong earnings/guidance: HD +2%, CTMI +27%, LTON +17%, OLGR +11%, PQUE +10%, IDBE +3.1%.... Other News: DOC +20% (announces initial order for microchips in Japan; parent co ADSX +15%), FLYI +20% (momentum from 54% move yesterday), LMIA +15% (momentum from 198% move yesterday on strong earnings), SYBR +7.2% (momentum from 133% move over last 3 days), PLUG +4.7% (co and Honda to unveil home energy station today), IDNX +4.7%, TSRA +4.7% (settles lawsuit with Samsung), JAKK +4.5% (signs TV Games license for World Wrestling Entertainment), BOOM +4.1% (momentum from 150% move over last 2 days), RMBS +4%.... Under $3: WOLV +19% (reports SepQ), SNUS +4.7%.
Gapping Down
Down on disappointing earnings/guidance: LUCY -31%, SSFT -10%, XIDE -9.1%, MUSE -4.7% (also JP Morgan downgrade).... Other News: XNVA -17% (MLNM decides to cease funding the XR5944/XR11576 program), CHTR -12% (issues convertible senior notes), PKS -9.3% (announces convertible senior notes offering), ABTL -6.7% (to restate multi-year results; may face Nasdaq delisting; CFO resigns), UTSI -4.3% (Wachovia downgrade), WBSN -4% (Raymond James downgrade), DAL -3.9%, INSP -3.7% (Raymond James downgrade), FNM -3.4% (delays 10-Q), PSFT -3.1% (major holder says will not tender shares in ORCL bid), TASR -2% (profit-taking from recent run-up), GOOG -1.7% (shares come off lock-up restrictions). -
Tänane avanemine viitab pigem korrektsiooni algusele.
Aasta lõpp (10-31 detsemberi vahemikus) tuleb vist tugevam jälle.
