Börsipäev 22. november - vaikne nädal ees?
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Rev Shark:
At Lower Levels, Buyers Lurk
"Restlessness is discontent and discontent is the first necessity of progress. Show me a thoroughly satisfied man and I will show you a failure."-- Thomas A. Edison
Postelection euphoria had its first significant pause on Friday as Alan Greenspan raised concerns about the weak dollar, and oil prices spiked back up. For several weeks following the election it looked like investors had not a worry in the world. They ignored the usual bearish arguments and fretted more about being left out rather than the sustainability of the advance.
Last week we arrived at the point were almost everyone was in agreement that the market was technically extended. Bulls and bears alike were concerned about the rapid pace of the recent ascent. Alan Greenspan's comments about the dollar and the trade deficit provided a convenient catalyst for a pullback. The question now is whether the bulls can regroup and keep this advance moving forward.
There are a couple positives that the bulls have going for them at this point. Seasonality favors the upside. This is the time of the year when cash tends to flow into the market as year-end bonuses are received and retirement plans are funded. The thin trading in the days around holidays often have a very bullish bias. Traders are aware of that tendency and help make it self-fulfilling to some degree.
Another positive that the bulls have going for them is that many fund managers did not fully participate in the recent advance. Their performance is lagging and they have to find a way to catch up. Generally that means aggressively buying fast-moving stocks in the hope that they will outperform long enough to catch up.
In addition to fund managers, there are folks watching this recent move who have been waiting for a chance to put money to work at lower prices. These "dip-buyers" have been very frustrated recently as the market went straight up for weeks with barely a pause. There has been no significant pullback to allow them to put their cash to work.
The question is whether the dip-buyers will still be willing to invest when a significant pullback does occur, and discussion about factors like the weak dollar, rising interest rates, inflation, a slow economy and such are tossed around as reasons the market can't go higher.
The bearish argument is that we have already had our year-end run -- it just occurred early and there are lots of good reasons for investors not to put more money into this market. I disagree. I believe the recent strength had a significant psychological effect and that there are plenty of buyers waiting for the opportunity to buy at lower prices. I don't even think they are going to be very patient; I expect them to show up fairly quickly and to be assisted by overly aggressive bears who will be squeezed once again.
The chances of rolling over and going straight down from this point look remote to me. I am looking for a good battle back and forth between the bulls and bears and some excellent trading. I suspect the bulls will assert themselves in the thinner holiday trading surrounding Thanksgiving, especially if we pull back back further over the next couple of days.
Early action is negative as overseas markets saw substantial pressure because of concerns about the weak dollar and the rebound in crude oil prices. I expect to see the bulls take advantage of a weak open, but whether they can sustain a bounce is questionable at this point.
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Novembri viimane täispikk nädal suuri muutusi turgudel kaasa tuua ei tohiks - neljapäeval on USA turud tänupühade tõttu suletud ning reedel kaubeldakse vaid pool päeva ehk eesti aja järgi kella 20.00-ni. Samas on presidendivalimiste järgne ralli olnud väga võimas ning reedene esimene suurem langus tähendab karude ja pullide võitluse jätkumist.
Oracle (ORCL) ja PeopleSoft (PSFT) on kindlasti täna ühed jälgitumad aktsiad, Oracle vaenulik ülevõtmispakkumine lõppes sellel nädalavahetusel ning paistab et enamus on siiski pakkumisega nõus. PeopleSofti juhtkonnal on aga küllaldaselt võimalusi liitumise nurjamiseks.
Google (GOOG) omanikud on lähema 18 kuu jooksul müümas 7,2 miljonit firma aktsiat ning põhjuseks oma varanduse riskide maandamine ehk portfelli riskide diversifitseerimine.
Dollar nädalavahetusel suuremaid liikumisi euro ja jeeni vastu ei teinud ning jätkuvalt kaubeldakse oluliste tehniliste tasemete juures.
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Gapping Up
AAPL +5.5% (target raised to $100 at Piper; PLAY +4.7% up in sympathy), SHOP +5% (guides for Q4, appears on CNBC), ISON +19% (explosive detection product passes milestones), CATG +10% (co and AZN announce major Strategic Alliance; AZN to take 19.9% equity stake in CATG), TOPT +2.8%.
Gapping Down
AGIX -9.5% (reports results from CART-2 clinical trial; stock falls during conf call), KKD -13.4% (reports OctQ, misses by $0.09), PARS -10% (announces Phase IIa results for dexanabinol), RIGL -9.1% (reports clinical data), GY -4.6% (makes two real estate transactions), AMR -4.5%, TASR -4.5% (Reuters article - Taser Execs Selling Heavily on the News), SONS -3.6% (Raymond James downgrade), OSIP -3.3% (continues 9.5% drop Friday; Wachovia downgrade), NXTL -2.8%, SUNW -2.5%, GOOG -1.4% (insiders adopt trading plans). -
Nagu lubatud, siis LHV Pro all tänahommikune Piper Jaffray analüüs Apple (AAPL) aktsiatele.
sB
