Börsipäev 29. nov
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
-
TÄnane hommik algab siis päris rohelises:
- Apple (AAPL) saab täna hommikul pos kommentaare kolmelt tier-1 majalt. Hinnasihid kerkivad sinna $75 kanti.
- WMT teatas müüginumbrid, mis jäid allapoole ootusi. Üks downgrade ka selle peale.
- Gateway (GTW) pos kommentaarid nii Barronsis kui ka Piper Jaffray poolt. Hinnasiht $8 peale.
- Sirius (SIRI) saab ühe teisejärgulise reitingualanduse, kuid samas tõstab Bear Stearns firma hinnasihi $7.50 peale. SIRI eelturul plussis.
- Google saab Amtechi käest upgrade Osta peale ning hinnasihiks $210. Varasem Hoia.
sB -
Rev Shark:
"The easiest period in a crisis situation is actually the battle itself. The most difficult is the period of indecision -- whether to fight or run away. And the most dangerous period is the aftermath. It is then, with all his resources spent and his guard down, that an individual must watch out for dulled reactions and faulty judgment."
-- Richard Nixon.
The bulls have certainly been winning the war lately and it looks like they are off to another strong start this morning as retail sales, with a few exceptions like Walmart (WMT:NYSE), were quite good. The bulls have been in firm control of this market for a while now and despite some pretty good bearish arguments they're staying very confident.
The bullish case now is based largely on emotional issues. There is strong momentum, good seasonality, underperforming funds that need to catch up, and underinvested bulls who are feeling left out. It is very easy to overlook how little fundamental issues can mean in the short term and the bearish case is almost always a fundamental one.
The bears' fundamental concerns are many: a weak dollar, stubbornly high oil, growing inflationary pressures, increasing interest rates and mediocre economic growth. If you want to find something to worry about there is plenty to choose from. However, in the perverse way the market works, the fact that there are such clear-cut concerns is probably adding some upside pressure as bulls stay underinvested and bears struggle with short squeezes.
After some very good Thanksgiving week action and a strong start to the new week it is particularly important that the bulls not let down their guards. It is very easy to be lulled into thinking that this market is going to continue to act the way it has for weeks now. Buying aggressively has worked well and most of us are inclined to keep on doing that indefinitely.
I preach quite often about not being too quick to anticipate market turns. Catching turns is a tough game and it can be quite costly if we are wrong. I generally prefer sticking with the trend until there are signs that it is broken. However, that does not mean we don't watch carefully for signs of a change in the prevailing trend.
A highly exuberant Monday morning open following a big week is the sort of emotionality we need to be wary about. Contentment ad overconfidence often set us up for nasty surprises. Stay vigilant and don't let your guard down as you enjoy this rally. Sooner or later the market is going to surprise some bulls who are now wallowing in victory.
We have a couple of market-moving events coming up this week. The Intel midquarter update and the monthly jobs report are going to be closely watched. Talk about the level of holiday sales is our main driver and it looks pretty good. Overseas markets are up strongly, the dollar is taking a rest from its free fall and crude oil isn't doing much.
It should be an interesting week so buckle up your trading helmet, replenish your beverages and get ready to rumble.
-
G. B. Smith:
-
Gapping Up
AAPL +5.6% (tgt raised to $77 from $66 at UBS, estimates and targets raised at Merrill and BofA), CAAS +64% (selected as exclusive supplier for steering pumps for GM Joint Venture in China), MBAY +32% (CNBC mention), PWER +11.2%, OMM +8.6% (guides above consensus), SUPG +5.6% (receives 90 day extension of FDA review date for Orathecin NDA), GIVN +5% (gets marketing OK from FDA), PLAY +4.9% (in sympathy with AAPL), OSTK +4.7% (tgt raised to $78 from $69 at Legg Mason), FRX +4.6% (gets FDA approval), SIRI +3.5%, TASR +2.3% (ad blitz touts consumer stun gun -- The Arizona Republic).... Recent momentum favorites keep moving: LMIA +7.9%, EWEB +6.4%, BOOM +6.2%, AKS +5.8%, SHOP +5.2%, PACT +4.7%, GOAM +4.6% Under $3: ARTG +20% (selected by AEOS), FONR +12%, ECGI +11% (positive business update), STXN +10% (Needham upgrade), NENG +5.6%.
Gapping Down
WMT -2.4% (OpCo downgrade after disappointing Thanksgiving weekend sales), GLNG -7.8% (profit taking after 7.5% move on Friday), EP -3.4% (JP Morgan downgrade), CRXL -2.9%, AUDC -2.1% (Barron's article). -
Genentech (DNA) halted, oodata siis tõenäoliselt suurt liikumist põhjustavat uudist ....
-
12:26 DNA Genentech Phase III Results Show Avastin Plus FOLFOX4 Chemotherapy Significantly Extend Survival in Second-Line Metastatic Colorectal Cancer-- Update --
sB -
See, et Genentech (DNA) selle uudise peale (500 mln kuni 2 mld lisakäivet) allapoole liigub..see on päris karune märk.
sB
