Börsipäev 30. november
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Tänase suuna määravad ilmselt paljus makroandmed ...
15.30 USA Q3 GDP
17.00 Chigaco PMI ja November consumer confidence
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Ootused: GDP 3.7% (delflaatori prognoos 1.3%), PMI 59 ja Consumer Confidence 94.5.
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Tänane hommik algab päris nullis (mida ilmselt muudab 10 min pärast avaldet GDP number):
- Piper tõstab täna hommikul Select Comforti (SCSS) hinnasihi $20 peale varasema $18.50 juurest. Reitinguks jääb Mkt Perform. SCSS on LHV Pro valik ning väikese korrektsiooni (ca 18 juurest) soovitan soojalt osta.
- Banc of America oli eile hilisõhtul väljas analüüsiga Sirius Satellite (SIRI) teemal, väites et nende arvates on aktsiad väärt max $4. Reitinguks loomulikult Sell. Püüan Pro alla selle analüüsi ka välja panna. SIRI teemal on meil ka üks päris asjalik foorum tekkinud viimastel päevadel.
- Prudential tõstab Red Hati (RHAT) reitingut ning andis hinnaihiks $17.
- Banc of America alustas E*trade (ET) katmist Neutraliga, $15 hs. Samas konkurent Ameritrade (AMTD sai reitinguks Sell.
- Novartis (NVS) tõmbas Euroopas tagasi oma Prexige müügitaotluse. Tegemist on sarnase COX2 inhibiitoriga nagu oli ka Mercki (MRK) Vioxx. Prexige on päris suur ravim ka NVS jaoks, kuid aktsiad selle uudise peale eriti ei reageerinudki.
- Mind üldiselt häirib väga see, kuidas Genentech (DNA) reageeris eile päeval positiivse Avastini uudise peale. Big trading tell?
Suuri uudiseid täna hommikul muid eriti ei olegi.
sB -
GDP-prelim +3.9% vs +3.7% consensus ...
Dow & Nasdaq üles, USD tugevnemas ... -
Rev Shark:
Don't Worry Yourself Out of the Market
"As a rule, men worry more about what they can't see than about what they can."
-- Julius Caesar
As the market has rallied throughout November the chorus of worries has continued to build. Yesterday the bears seized on a soft report from Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) to bolster their arguments that holiday sales will be disappointing. The fact that other retailers, particularly those on the Internet, had strong early sales was pretty much ignored as folks worried about Wal-Mart.
The bears certainly have no shortage of things to remind us to worry about: stubbornly high crude oil prices, the weak dollar, inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, mediocre economic growth, high stock valuations, the federal budget deficit, consumers with too much debt and so on and so on. Finding worries and concerns is a pretty easy task and it is doesn't take much to paint a gloomy picture about the future.
The bears may indeed may be correct about all of the terrible things that are out there, but we have to be very careful about worrying too much about the future when there are opportunities as well. We can always find some future concern that justifies inaction but if we want to be successful traders we need to deal with what is in front of us.
It is very easy for investors to run and hide when they start worrying about something like a 1987-type market crash. It is my contention that far more money has been lost worrying about a potential crash than has actually been lost in one. Also, they don't occur without some warnings -- go back and study the technical action prior to the crash of 1987 and you will see that a good money management system would have had you on the sidelines by the time the meltdown took place.
Yes, there is plenty to worry about out there but this market has been hanging very tough and we can't be too quick to anticipate the end of the party. We are technically extended and need some consolidation and rest but don't underestimate the power of momentum. The buyers can be surprisingly persistent.
We have a quiet morning so far without much major news. Overseas markets were soft. There was soft economic news in Japan. Crude oil is up a tad and the dollar mixed. We have three economic reports due today that will garner some attention: revised second-quarter GDP, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. The consumer confidence number at 10 a.m. EST has the best chance of moving the market.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
MUSE +11% (selected by Japan's NTT Corp for business service mgmt backbone), CTRX +10% (CIBC and Piper initiate coverage on this recent IPO), EGHT +6.1% (signs agreement with D&H Distributing), GIVN +6.2% (continues 7% move yesterday), RHAT +5.3% (Pru upgrade), IDNX +3.6% (announces biometrics order), APOL +2.1% (Bear Stearns sets $97 price tgt), IMCL +1.7% (receives patent).... Under $3: WGAT +21%, LOUD +15% (to provide digital media services for the Music Choice Network launch of On Demand Video), ULTE +14% (signs new contracts with eight homebuilders), HETC +12%, SSPI +7%, BITS +6.7%.
Gapping Down
ELOS -18% (asked by FDA to resubmit marketing application for its VelaSmooth cellulite treatment, CIBC downgrade), XING -14% (reports SepQ), HOTT -10.6% (reports Nov comps down 8.0%; lowers Q4 guidance; Fulcrum downgrade), CRAY -9.2% (announces $60 mln convertible notes offering), ENZN -7.4% (FDA briefing documents posted on website for Marqibo), MICC -6.3% (announces stock offering), ARRY -5.5% (files to offer 6 mln shares), TTMI -4.4%, AMTD -2.9% (started with a Sell at BofA), HCC -2.7% (files to offer 3 mln shares), DHB -2.1% (offering prices), ELN -1.4% (announces completion of tender offer and consent solicitation for guaranteed notes). -
Ja SIRI dets put 5 endiselt 0,10 $, kas keegi mõlgutab ka mõtteid?
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mina mõtlen
mulle loterii meeldib :) -
Need haibid on alati loterii.
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aga ma pigem jaanuarisse
pole eriti kallimad ja äkki dets reede toob hinda ka allapoole saab sealt kasumit vähemalt
2 päeva on aktsia 7 all käinud mis arvate kas jaanuari oma mingi 15 sendiga saaks siis kätte? -
jan05 5.0 put ask 0.25
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Praeguse vaolatiilsuse juures näitab Ivolatility aktsia hinnaks 6,75-6,80 $, et jan put 0,15 maksaks
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no siis peaks ju kätte saama selle hinnaga
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Selle IVolatilytiga on selline pull, et seal on väiksem hind, kui tegelikult saad. Arvan, et otsiooni kirjutaja tahab suuremat preemiat.
Praegu SIRI 6,69$ ja Yahoo 7.5 strike put on 1,05/1,10, siis calculaator arvutab 1,063$. Küllaltki bid`i lähedal -
Näe Jan 5 juba Ask 0,20$
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võib ju sealt vahelt ka kätte saada possi
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räägib natukene pikemalt USAs maksude optimeerimisest ja paljud väikesed aktsiad võivadki selle pärast praegu lennata.
http://www.thestreet.com/funds/taxforum/627666.html -
nii, et paljude poolt oodatud tänupühade järgne ja aastavetuse eelne aktsiaralli jääb ära....turg võiks kuhugi suunas liikuda, sellise närviliselt ülesse alla hüpplemisega pole ka võimalik midagi teenida.
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Tulu, kas enam ilusam ralli kui viimasel kolmel kuul on olnud, on üldse võimalik? :)
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hmm, pole võimalik teenida - selline jutt viitab eelkõige sellele, et ollakse liialt kinni ühes kindlas strateegias ja omatakse vähe paindlikust turusituatsiooni muutudes oma tegevus ümber suunata
turg pakub alati võimaluse teenida, loomulikult on selgelt tõusval või langeval turul kergem -
...samas vaadata turu liikumist mitme aasta graafikuna on ju peale langust olnud väike tõus ja terve see aasta külgsuunas liikumine, et kas hakkab tõusma või ei? .....SKP ju kasvab koguaeg
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...huvitv oleks teada, kas fondide haldurid ka langusele panustavad?
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klassikaliste investeerimisfondide haldurid kindlasti mitte, hedge fondid küll ...
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FT kirjutab et Hiina valitsus takistab hiinlastel Google kasutamist..
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Cuban hedges bets on a gambling fund - NY Post
The NY Post reports that Mark Cuban is planning to start a hedge fund that will gamble investors' cash. Literally. Cuban believes gambling, as in slot machines, blackjack, poker and sports betting, holds just as much promise for returns as stock-mkt or bond investing, which he claims is rife with misinformation. Cuban announced the move on his Web blog. While he hasn't filed any paperwork, announced any hires or even come up with a name for the fund, Cuban talked like he was intent on following through on the plan. "This is purely about setting out to see if the mkt for gambling on events and games of chance is more efficient and more trustworthy than the stock and bond mkts," he wrote. Cuban, pointing to the wealth of information on professional sports teams, said the professional gamblers he would hire would know more about those games than brokers and investors knew about scandal-scarred co's like Tyco or Enron.
