Börsipäev 1.detsember
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Rev Shark:
Don't Expect Rational From This Market
12/1/04 8:19 AM ET"Concern should drive us into action and not into a depression. No man is free who cannot control himself."
-- Pythagoras
There is always a contingent of bears who are worried about the market but the level and volume of concern seems to have accelerated quite a bit lately. The things to worry about are no big secret: a weak dollar, inflationary pressures, high crude oil and commodity prices, faltering consumer confidence, weak economic growth, high valuations and so on. When you couple those worries with the fact that the market has made a big move off the August lows, it seems the logical thing to do is adopt a bearish posture.
If the market was that easy and straight-forward it certainly would make the investing game much easier, but Mr. Market is not a logical beast. He doesn't think or act logically. He is a very smart guy who knows all the arguments, bulls and bearish, but he is an emotional beast who will find ways to keep us frustrated, especially if we insist on expecting the market to do the rational thing.
That doesn't mean we shouldn't be concerned about the many very legitimate worries set forth by the bears but we need to keep in mind that just because those arguments are out there it doesn't mean they will affect the market today or tomorrow or even next month. The market moves to its rhythm despite what the macroeconomic bears tell us about the future.
Don't let concerns about the market freeze you into inaction. It is very easy to justify doing nothing as the pundits bombard us with dire predictions. At some point their worries may kick in, and the market action will reflect that.
What we have to do is watch the technical patterns very carefully and be prepared to act if things start to break down. Right now the major indices continue to hold well and there continues to be a heavy level of speculative action in small-caps and high-beta stocks. The aggressive traders are still very active and that is providing us with some interesting action.
The early action this morning is positive. Europe is trading up while Asia is mixed. Crude oil is down a bit and helping matters. We have personal income and spending, construction spending and the ISM index reports due out this morning, which will help set the tone of trading. I suspect we will have another choppy day of trading.
(Don't forget the QQQ starts trading today with the symbol QQQQ.)
Short QQQQ
Gary B. Smith:
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Korra veel kiire meeldetuletus ka eesti keeles, et tänasest kaupleb Nasdaq 100 indeksaktsia uue sümboliga, QQQ asemel on üks q juures ehk uus sümbol on QQQQ.
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Gapping Up
GORX +125% (receives FDA approval for Mucotrol), OVTI +15% (reports OctQ), KONG +14% (signs licensing agreements with five record cos), WDC +7.1% (guides DecQ higher), CRAY +6.6% (announces pricing of $65 mln of 3% notes), CHS +6.4% (reports OctQ; Wachovia upgrade), TASR +4.5%, NKTR +3.9% (Deutsche and SunTrust upgrades), STX +2.8% (mentioned in Barron's Online, Goldman positive ahead of mid-qtr update Dec 7), NVLS +2.8% (raises guidance to high-end of range), COGN +2.6% (Adams Harkness upgrade).... Under $3: LFP +80% (Receives US FDA Clearance for the Impact Test System for Medical Use), ICOR +48% (awarded patent), CYTR +43% (announces data for its Iroxanadine for the treatment of cardiovascular disease), FTGX +22% (signs contract with Infonet), DSGX +10% (reports qtr; CSFB upgrade), VION +8.7% (OpCo starts with Buy, $8 tgt), LOUD +7.3% (to power Sweden's largest legal music download service).
Gapping Down
SYNO -16% (misses by $0.02, will not provide guidance until mkt conditions stabilize), SKIL -23% (Legg Mason and CSFB downgrade following qtrly report), FE -5.2% (guides lower, Morgan Stanley downgrade), SYNA -5% (announces $100 mln private offering of convertible senior subordinated notes), MCHP -4.5% (lowers guidance below consensus), PLAB -4.5% (First Albany downgrade), SGMS -3.6% (plans $225 mln offering of convertible subordinated debentures), ASMI -2.8% (announces $125 mln convertible notes offering), DG -2.5% (misses by $0.03), PACT -3% (announces private offering). -
Kuuldvasti on QQQQ nüüd soodne ost..sama raha eest üks Q rohkem.. :)
sB -
huvitav, miks täna BIVN aktsiatega ei kaubelda?
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Travelzoo holders to sell up to 750,000 shares
Kas on mingit varianti TZOO langusele mängida? -
Halted. Clolar ODAC panel meeting on täna. Partnerid GENZ/ILXO (viimane ostet ära). Väljavaated suht head.
sB -
TZOO langusele on väga raske mängida, kuna see aktsia pole paljude brokerite juures shorditav, mistõttu jääb ka langus lahjemaks, kui mõne teise aktsiaga oleks. Hoiaks eemale.
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Vahepeal puhkeseisundis olnud turule on tulnud täna uut hingamist - USA novembri tööstustoodangu näitajad viitavad korralikule kasvule ning kartused majanduskasvu peatumises ei leidnud kinnitust. ISM tööstusaktiivsuse indeks kerkis oktoobri 56,8 punktilt 57,8 punktile (üle 50 punkti viitab majanduse kasvule). Tulevaste orderite indeks kerkis 58,3 punktilt 61,5 punktile.
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GORX, mis täna on üleval FDA approvali peale..võib olla natuke liiga õhku täis. Mõned turuosalised viitavad faktile, et tegemist ei ole tõelise ravimiga, vaid pigem toidulisandiga. Aga väga-väga mitu korda floati on asi juba kaubelnud ning varajased karud on palju haiget saanud.
FWIW
sB -
Mõtlesid GORX-i vist?
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GORX jah. Pean tunnistama, et olime asjas mõne nädala eest poolkogemata ka lühikesed.
sB -
TZOO float on kah väga väike, mistõttu on suhteliselt lihtne korralikke squeeze korraldada.
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GORX halted!
Nice call by sB. -
GORX GeoPharma: FDA says Mucotrol product was approved; Mucotrol is a device, not a drug - Bloomberg
Bloomberg.com reports that GORX's Mucotrol product for treating oral ulcers was approved Nov 24, the FDA said. The product is a wafer that treats mouth sores. -
Üks suht vähetuntud inst researchi maja kirjutas just nii:
The market has recently made a fascinating series of moves that presage what could turn out to be an historic moment in market annals. The SPX as well as the other senior averages have formed patterns that are poised to precipitate a market correction that could have significant scope lower. This is not to say with certainty that the market falls from here, but rather that the conditions are once again ripe for an inflection point of some importance. With substantial sell signals forming in our Supply/Demand models both LT and IT, the implications of this potential inflection point could be for a more serious move lower just at a moment when the bulls have come to totally dominate the market and the bears have fallen into disarray. We would posit that the situation is virtually a requirement for a more serious correction: the bulls are fully committed and will have to exit at significant losses should the market reverse and pull back here. Likewise the bears are essentially out of the market now and will need to rapidly move to position themselves for a decline. Both of these market participants then provide the impetus for a sudden, sharp drop in the market. The bulls have to rally their forces overnight or face the prospects of a rout at a critical time in the nascent new bull market scenario.
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> In reading the popular press on the days just before major market moves occurred in history some remarkable insights can be gained. We find it amazing that the bears were crowing and the bulls in disarray just at the 8/2/82 bottom, the converse conditions to those in which we now find the market. Larger implications of this potentially important inflection point remain premature. In the last 18 months since the bull run of 3/12/03 began, there have been a surprising number of potential inflection points that turned out to be won over by exuberant bulls just when the patterns suggested that a major decline was underway. Should we indeed see a sharp drop on the 1st of the month and the market sustain prices below SPX 1162, the possibilities of a new bear market having begun would increase sharply in our opinion. The stunning consequence of the present inflection point is that if it fulfills to the downside, the odds of the economy rapidly deteriorating into recession would be quite high, despite strong indications of growth from the GDP report. Today> '> s reports of weak car sales, but robust Japanese sales - with a sharply falling dollar! - supports that view. It is too soon to follow this line of reasoning until resolution is achieved for the heretofore inconsequential price patterns of the market. But the ST patterns call for a sharp rally into SPX 1196-1203 resistance and then a rapid reversal lower.
sB -
GORX muutub järjest naljakamaks. Nüüd siis väidetakse, et tegemist ei olegi ravimiga vaid pigem mingi med. teh. vidinaga. Ühesõnaga approval ikkagi oli. Toode ise aga selline kesine. Pakun, et aktsiad avanevad allpool $7 tasemeid. Sealt aga järgneb ülikiire short covering.
Huvitav, kui suur on short interest hetkel? Suurem kui float?
sB -
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bivn
BIVN -17.48% -
GORX stsenaariumid?
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Trader ei kauple GORX-i. Kas peatatud ja kui kauaks?
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Avaneb vist homme?
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resumes trading at 09:45 ET
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GORXi conference call käib praegu, väga palju selgust pole saanud:
GORX GeoPharma on Conference Call (7.37 +0.56) -- Update --
Co says they are pleased to announce that they received FDA approval for Mucotrol; has been looking at marketing partners to team up with; give the patient number of 300,000 for potential market... co says addressing the issue because some people misconstrued the original press release as stating that a drug was given approval when in facct it was a medical device, co did not intend for it to be perceived that way... Co asked why they called it a prescription product and why did they back track on guidance: co states that product is technically dubbed a prescription product, for guidance they had not determined actual guidance, they were trying to show people what the market opportunity was not necessarily what they would be able to do... co says it is not really a device but technically it is a tablet, they are just unable to refer to it as a drug; was originally going to be a drug, but evolved into a device.
Ühe tegelase kommentaar selle peale:
GORX a new product 1/2 tablet 1/2 wafer.. Wablet a reg trademark -
GORX turuväärtus ei ole midagi erilist ca 57milli näiteks konkureerivat toodet väljatöötaval CuraGen-il (CRGN) on see 360 milli. Sealjuures on GORX suutnud paar aastat isegi väikest kasumit näidata, samas kui konkurent põletab raha pöörase kiirusega.
Mis arvate, kas GORX on hype või mitte? Igaljuhul 7$ tase ei ole selle aktsia jaoks midagi erilist.
