Börsipäev 3. dets - SCSS käibehoiatus
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07:03 SCSS Select Comfort lowers guidance range below consensus (19.82 )
Company issues lowers revenue guidance for Q4 (Dec), to $143-149 mln from $153-158 vs the Reuters consensus of $155.5 mln.
Usun, et circa 10% kukkumist tuleb täna küll.
Põhjuseks nõrk holiday sales.
LHV Pro soovitus. Ise olen pikk $17 kandist. Lühiajaliselt teeb haiget (eriti arvestades, et Piper oli mõne päev eest välja analüüsiga, kus kinnitas tugevat müüki ning tõstis hinnasihti), kuid pikemas persp kindlasti ostuvõimalus.
sB -
Lisaks on paljud jaefirmad hoiatanud ehk tegu ei ole ühe firma probleemiga, vaid kogu sektor on nõrk.
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Analüütikute teema vajaks vist eraldi foorumit,aga kunagi oli LEXR sama moodi,et tõsteti hinna-
sihti jne.Tegelik tulemus oli,et kasumist jäi puudu ja hoiatas ka.Pärast kukkumist analüütikud ütlesid ikka,et hea sisenemiskoht jne.LEXR aga kukkus rõõmsalt edasi ja hoiatas edasi.Millistele
andmetele siis analüüsid toetuvad või vaadatakse aknast välja ja kuna on kehv ilm,siis TÄNA PANEN DOWNGRADE! Samuti võiks keegi masside jaoks põhifirmad ritta panna,mis sellest,et ka
nemad eksivad.See ennustamine on juba selline tänamatu töö! -
Rev Shark:
All Eyes on Jobs Number
12/3/04 8:24 AM ET"We have been taught to believe that negative equals realistic and positive equals unrealistic."
-- Susan Jeffers
The upbeat midquarter update from Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) seems to have caught quite a few people by surprise. Prevailing expectations were for something lukewarm at best but Intel upped revenue guidance nicely and seems to have made progress on its inventory woes. That report obviously has broad implications for the technology sector and is causing some early optimism.
The November jobs report will be out in a few minutes and that could easily change or accelerate the current mood. The big question we have to consider is whether after the recent jump in the market it is realistic to maintain a positive view of where this market is headed. Doesn't it make sense to start being more "realistic" and to start tempering our enthusiasm for the market?
My two main themes lately have been "don't underestimate the power of momentum" and "don't expect the market to be logical especially when it comes to longer term fundamental arguments about the market." Both those themes remain in play but we do have to balance them against a somewhat technically extended market.
The essence of the battle in the market now is the ability for momentum to continue vs. the inclination of investors with big recent gains to lock them in and become more defensive. On one hand it is pretty darn obvious that there is some aggressive buying taking place out there but on the other hand it sure would be painful to let those gains slip away.
One thing to keep in mind when trying to measure the health of momentum is that many big funds and institutions view the market in a different way than individuals who are just trying to make a buck. For the institutions that dominate the market, it is very important that they be heavily invested in case the market moves up so that they don't lag their all important benchmark targets. If the market falls that is OK as long as their benchmark index slides also. That is part of the reason why momentum has the tendency to stay stronger than you'd think possible.
The November employment report is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and will likely get a major reaction from the market. Consensus estimates are for new jobs of 198,000, an unemployment rate of 5.4%, average earnings up +0.3% and workweek hours of 33.8. Strong numbers not only have growth implications but will affect interest rates and that might lead to sector shifts, especially into technology stocks.
After the strong Intel report you have to be contemplating whether we are setting up for a "sell the news" reversal. A strong move up on a good jobs report is likely to invite profit-taking simply because we will be so tremendously extended.
Momentum vs. protection of recent profits is what it is all about right now and momentum is an extremely formidable opponent. Protection of profits usually doesn't assert itself until folks start to see some gains slip away. Once that happens the urge to play defense will grow.
Stay tuned for the big number. Once that is out we can plot some strategy. My inclination right now is to do some selling into a euphoric reaction to the report.
Gary B. Smith:
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Turud on tõelisel ristteel, see järeldub eriti kui vaadata Gary B. Smithi graafikut, eelmine tipp jaanuari lõpus lõppes suure kukkumisega, samas kui 2150 tase suutakse murda, siis on oodata tugevat aastalõppu.
Inteli eilne kvartalivahekokkuvõte oli väga positiivne, seda eriti käibeprognoosi tõstmise osas, eelturul on aktsia 7,5% plussis.
Teisalt oli tänane tööjõuraport nõrk - oodati 200 000 uue töökoha loomist, selle asemel tekkis majanduses 112 000 töökohta. Võlakirjaturule mõjus uudis väga positiivselt ning 10 - aastase võlakirja intressimäär kukkus eilselt 4,4% pealt 4,3 protsendile. -
SCSS-il hetkel juba 11.45% langust ja hinna 17.55 juures... langeb ilmselt veel..
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Gapping Up
INTC +8% (mid-qtr update guides revs well above previous guidance; also Needham upgrade; up in sympathy: LRCX +4.9% (also Thomas Weisel upgrade), KLAC +3.6%, XLNX +2.9%, NVLS +2.7%, AMKR +7.6%, VTSS +6%, AMAT +4.1%, ASML +3.9%, AMD +2.8%, NSM +2.7%), BITS +16% (continues recent momentum), DIO +12% (receives FDA clearance for EVLT), CRIS +11% (Business Week article), COGT +5.5% (announces $20 mln US-VISIT contract), NGEN +5.5% (continues recent momentum), IPIX +3.9% (announces 360-degree technology expands to Italy), SIRI +3.4% (continues recent momentum), TASR +2.8% (Kerik named to top Homeland Security spot, seen as potential positive for Taser -- see Briefing.com comment yesterday on InPlay), NVDA +2.7% (Pac Growth upgrade).... Under $3: BIOM +78% (cancer vaccine data), WGNR +45% (earnings report), RCO +11%, GNTA +7% (Acquires C-Myb Antisense Drug), LOUD +5.8% (recent momentum).
Gapping Down
MOT -8.6% (completes Freescale spin-off), BPA -42% (female sex-drive patch needs more study says advisory panel), THOR -13% (RBC upgrade after co reports sales update), GORX -10.5% (held conf call last night), FITB -4.3% (Baird and Merrill Lynch downgrade the stock after co guides lower), HAL -2% (CSFB downgrade, mgmt change), IRSN -18%, DYTK -12% (receives notice of deficiency). -
Select Comfort (SCSS) on hetkel 18% miinuses. Hirmul suured silmad. Minu jaoks pole fund. plaanis eriti midagi muutunud. SCSS on suht suur liikuja ning võtab ilmselt mõnda aega, enne kui $20 tasemeid jälle näeme. Paar kvartalit ehk, et ennast jälle tõestada. Hea juhtkond, tugev bilanss ja huvitav toode.
jätkan soovitamist. LHV Pro valik
sB -
ABB asbestos case to be reviewed
Company confident of addressing outstanding issues promptly
Zurich, Switzerland, December 3, 2004 - The Third Circuit Court of Appeals in the United States has ruled that ABB’s Chapter 11 Plan of Reorganization for its U.S. subsidiary, Combustion Engineering (CE) will be reviewed again by the District Court.
Under the Plan of Reorganization announced in January 2003, ABB offered a $1.2 billion trust fund for claims against CE. It consisted of the assets of CE valued at $812 million, about 30 million ABB shares, and cash contributions totalling about $350 million. The plan was accepted by an overwhelming majority of claimants, and approved by both the Bankruptcy and District courts.
ABB said it was considering its options and fully expects to be able to resolve the issues raised by the Appeals Court, and will move quickly to do so.
In the meantime, CE remains in Chapter 11, and it and the ABB group remain protected from asbestos litigation by the Bankruptcy Court’s injunction.
The Third Circuit Court of Appeals found that it was not appropriate to include Lummus Global and Basic Ltd in the Combustion Engineering Plan. ABB said it would look promptly at other mechanisms to deal with the insignificant asbestos exposure of these two companies.
"Given the fact that both the Bankruptcy and District Courts have approved the Combustion Engineering Plan of Reorganization, we are naturally surprised and disappointed at today’s decision,” said Jürgen Dormann ABB chairman and CEO. “But we remain confident that we can resolve Combustion Engineering’s asbestos liability within a Plan of Reorganization compatible with the Third Circuit’s decision within a relatively short time frame and without significant additional cost." -
Jürgen Dormann, Chairman and CEO:
It is important to note that the court did not reject the plan in its entirety, such as the proposed size of the settlement, but asked for a review of certain technical legal questions. It is a delay, not a derailing of the plan. -
Betti, mis BIVN aktsiast saab, kas analyytikute hinnasiht $16 on veel jõus või........?
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Jeff DeGraaf (Lehmani TA pealik) oma klientidele täna hommikul:
"..We’re willing to take a shot at the dollar here because the pain trade has seemed to be one of the
most effective weapons of 2004, and we can’t think of many bigger bangs than a dollar rally into years end as the market provides a little more tough love before the calendar turns..."
fwiw,
Bioenvision (BIVN) sai minu arvates 0.75 müügiluba. GENZ/ILXO küsisid kahte tüüpi vähi müügiluba ning said müügiloa ühe tüübi (olulisema) jaoks. Laste ALL/AML on väga väike grupp (4000 juhtumit aastas) ning antud approval kattis ca 3000 sellest grupist. Ülejäänud joaks nõuab FDA lisauuringuid. Analüütikud on oma endiste reitingute ning hinnasihtide juures. Eile eelturul oleks $10 juurest välja ka saanud.
sB -
BIOM tõus 77%
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BIVN koha pealt veel seda, et kuna tegemist on mõeldud lastele mõeldud vähiravimiga, siis FDA-l on poliitiline agenda taga. Lastele mõeldud ravimeid ei ole viimasel ajal väga palju arendatud ning survet jätkub. Eriline spetsialist ma siiski BIVN-i teemal ei ole. Kunagine BusinessWeeki valik vist. LHV saidil peaks vähemalt üks stoori selle kohta olema.
sB -
SCSS võib pakkuda lühiajalist kauplemisvõimalust põrkele mängimiseks:
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Kas keegi teist ka PSRC jälgib? Müüsin mõni aeg tagasi positsiooni, nüüd oleks kiusatus tagasi osta, täna kõigi aegade low.
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Euro taas mühinal üles, dollari vastu 1,3435. Oskab ehk keegi valuutaturu spetsidest kommenteerida, miks viimastel aegadel just reede on valitud suurte liigutamiste ajaks. Aktsiaturul valitseb reedel enamsti vaikus, valuutaturul aga suuremad läbimurded novembris just reedel toimunud?
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SCSS: ulereageeringud on toredad asjad - Tanupuhade kehva muugi tottu vahendab juhtkond 9% kaibeprognoosi ja aktsiahind on ule 20% madalamal...
Ostsin pool planeeritavast kogusest @15.75 ja vaga rahul:) -
SCSS: ülereageering jätkub?
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Oskab keegi seletada miks SCSS suht heade tulemuste peale üle 3% miinuses on?
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Select Comfort downgraded by BB&T Capital Mkts
ega kellelgi juhuslikult rohkem infot selle downgrade kohta pole? -
Tulemustele vägagi erinevaid reaktsioone:
Select Comfort target raised to $52 from $41 at MillerJohnson following Q1 results (SCSS)
Select Comfort downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Craig Hallum on valuation (SCSS)
Select Comfort downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T- based on valuation (SCSS)
Select Comfort tgt raised before the open to $51 from $40 at Wedbush (SCSS) -
tead sa Alo ka mõne downgrade'ja põhjusi
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Madalamate reitingute peamine põhjus kommentaarina kirjas ehk aktsia hind on kerkinud ning tõusupotentsiaali enam ei nähta.
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Kellele meeldib positiivsemaid seisukohti lugeda, siis visake pilt endiste LHVlaste siteidele :)
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täna spliti päev
millal see füüsiliselt läbi viiakse? pärast sulgemist?
praeguse seisuga ei ole midagi toimunud -
Nonii... täiendame vana SCSS foorumit.
Nagu 2004. aastal nüüd ligikaudu samal ajal annab SCSS Q4 ja FY kasumihoiatuse. Arvatavasti tüüpiline -20% gap kohe alla.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061130/20061130005288.html?.v=1
Eraldi tuuakse välja ettevõtte haavatavus (mis on juba aset leidmas) housing-trendide poolt. Võib-olla see pole uudis kellelegi, aga kindlasti tekitab sellise seose rõhutamine paljudes hirmu. Ei oskagi kohe seisukohta võtta kas on tekkimas ostukoht või hoopis tuleks eemale hoida. -
Juhtkond on päris aus. Ma arvan, et tekkimas on ostukoht, kuid sellega tasuks natukene oodata. Ei ole veel täielikult jõudnud probleemi lahata, kuid nagu Piper Jeffray varasemalt kommenteeris, oleme sellist situatsiooni näinud ka 2004. aastal. Firma väärtus kukkus kõvasti, kuid pikemas perspektiivis lõi päris hea ostukoha. Arvestades eriti võimalust madratsiturul suuremat osa haarata.
Co lowers FY06 EPS guidance to $0.80-0.87 vs $0.97 consensus, as the co currently expects Q4 net sales growth and same-store sales growth to be below the low end of its long-term growth targets. Co announced that net sales during the first eight weeks of the Q4 ending with the Thanksgiving weekend increased six percent and same-store sales declined nine percent compared to the prior year period. "This quarter's sales have been disappointing, as we've noted a closer correlation in our business with housing industry trends. Our sales programs and promotional offers have been consistent with prior years, and we are protecting product margins." Co reports that management remains committed to continuing its share repurchase program. Through Friday, November 24, Select Comfort has invested $15.6 million in the Q4 to repurchase an additional 748,000 shares of its common stock.
More to come..
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SCSS eelturul u. 18% miinuses. Väga huvitavad sarnasused teema algusega aastast 2004.
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Olen nõus. Juhtkond kinnitab ka oma pikemaajalisi kasvuprognoose.
