Börsipäev 6. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Rev Shark:
"The man who can drive himself further once the effort gets painful is the man who will win."
-- Roger Bannister (first man to run a mile in less than 4 minutes)
As we kick off a new week, the issue we are contemplating is whether this already extended market has the potential to move higher still. The bear argument is painfully obvious: simply look at the charts and study the extent of the move we have had since the beginning of November on top of an already pretty good move that started in August. Sooner or later we are going to take a rest. There is no doubt about it.
Both bull and bear alike are likely to agree about the technical condition of the market: We are technically extended but momentum is very strong and there is a fair amount of skepticism, which provides a "wall of worry" for the market to climb.
However when it comes to fundamental arguments there is no agreement. The bears have a long list of worries and concerns and the bulls say, "Yeah, yeah, we've heard it all before."
The bears' primary concern is probably the continued weakness in the dollar. Foreign investors are paying a steep price to be invested in the U.S. as the dollar deteriorates, so you can't blame them if they go elsewhere and stop supporting U.S. securities. On the other hand, a weak dollar helps U.S. companies that export goods and services because U.S. goods are comparatively cheap and that attracts foreign customers.
The other major concern of the bears is slow economic growth. The weaker-than-expected jobs report Friday and mediocre retail sales from Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) and others are the major concerns. The steep drop in crude oil prices last week helped offset those concerns to some degree but the bears are growling loudly about the anemic pace of this economic recovery.
The recovery's slow pace does have an upside because inflationary and interest rate pressures are softened. The FOMC will not be as compelled to raise rates if we have a "Goldilocks" economy, which is not too hot and not too cold. The bulls argue that the bears are overstating economic concerns and that we are on the right track.
The bulls got a bit of a boost for their case Friday from an upbeat midquarter update from Intel (INTC:Nasdaq). The chip business isn't as bad as many feared and technology stocks seemed to be attracting some of the capital that was flowing out of the oil sector.
Do the bulls have enough fundamental ammunition that they can overcome the problems of technically extended charts? The bulls have momentum, seasonality and lots of underperforming beta-chasing money managers to help them out but the inclination of investors to protect recent profits is a formidable hurdle.
We could easily struggle for a while but the bears who think this market is going to roll over and go straight down will likely be disappointed. There are buyers who want in and they haven't had much of a chance for a very long time. Don't be too quick to count out the dip buyers -- recent strong market action will make them even more determined to buy when they finally have a chance.
We have a slightly shaky start to the week. Overseas markets are pressured as companies that export to the U.S. are hurt by the falling dollar. Oil is up slightly on unrest in Saudi Arabia. The dollar is at new lows vs. the euro.
I'm looking for choppy action as we deal with the extended technical conditions. It should be a busy week.
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G. B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
IPXL +12.5% (gets final FDA approval and first-to-file status for generic Wellbutrin), SCMM +13% (to Supply cmputers With Smart Card readers for US Govt Programs), UNTD +9% (enters into credit deal with Deutsche), BIVN +10.3% (positive clinical data), MYGN +10% (Piper upgrade), PRVT +9.3% (positive Barron's mention), VAST +8.4% (JMP upgrade), WHT +6.6% (to merge with GG -- WSJ), NGEN +6.2% (awarded patent), ICOS +5.4% (UBS upgrade), TLCV +5%, ADSX +4.4%, CTIC +4% (clinical data), BMY +2.4% (launches first at-home test to measure blood sugar control), S +2.2% (Smith Barney says VNO may make bid), AAPL +1.8% (positive analyst comments)..... Under $3: GNTA +69% (announces positive clinical data for its anti-cancer drug), GEPT +64% (receives 60 plane order for its video systems), NERX +49% (provides updated STR trial data), CYTR +30% (positive clinical data), RITT +14.2%, WHRT +10%.
Gapping Down
CGTK -41% (edifoligide failed to show a benefit; CSFB downgrade), MGPI -24% (lowers guidance), CC -7.5% (reports Q3 sales), PRCS -7.4% (expects Plenaxis sales to decline in Q4), SHOP -5.8% (started with a Sell at Deutsche; tgt $20), GORX -2.9% (announces lawsuit against the co relating to its announcement of Mucotrol's FDA clearance), DISH -2.8%, TASR -2.4% (experts dispute data on stun guns -- Miami Herald), NAV -1.6% (delays earnings report; guides), STLD -1.8% (UBS downgrade). -
Täna leiame turu avanemas praktiliselt nullis: Dow Jonesi futuur hetkel -0,03% ja Nasdaqi futuur +0.03%.
Apple (AAPL) on eelturul +2,38% üleval analüütikute positiivsete kommentaaride peale.
Bristol-Myers (BMY) on eelturul +2,80% peale seda kui ettevõte lasi välja esimese kodus kasutatava veresuhkru testi. Bristol-Myers on ka LHV Pro valik, kuid idee autori Oliver Peegi sõnul on tegu non-event uudisega.
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Eespoololevast Gapping Up-ist ei leia EELN-i. Millest selline tõus eelturul?
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09:32 EELN E-LOAN: Stock very cheap - Craig Hallum (2.68 +0.03)
Craig Hallum says the most recent M&A activity (the purchase of HFS by Capital One about one month ago) values the E-Loan home equity business at $3.85/share on an equivalent volume basis. When combined with the cash balance of approx $0.70/share, firm would suggest the stock is worth approx $4.50, excluding the contributions of the remainder of its business and excluding the value of its $110 mln NOL carry-forward. Reits Buy and $5 tgt.
Vot nii siis arvavad analüütikud täna hommikul (briefing.com)
sB -
Aitähh! Esialgne tõus on taandunud - eks lühikesed kukkusid katma, aga pikaajaline perspektiiv tundub hetkel olevat positiivsem, kui aasta tagasi. Pikk EELN-is.
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Lehmani TA osakonna juht Jeff DeGraaf täna hommikul oma klientidele:
"...The new high set last week led further confirmation to the uptrend, but it also developed a deficiency:
the first momentum divergence of this rally. Before making too much of this, let us provide some insight
to divergences; they are terrible timing tools, but suggestive instead of improving or deteriorating conditions. Enough of them usually break the camel’s back; too few of them often get trumpeted around to build upon and support the preconceived non-objective scenario of bulls or bears...."
sB -
Yeah! Craig-Hallumi kommentaarid on just selliseid nagu vaja on. Et E-Loan (EELN) on selline deep value play. Tekitab huvi ka teiste turuosaliste seas. Samas tuleb arvestada, et sellised kommentaarid tavaliselt toovad sisse ka rahutut raha, kes tahavad, et see $5 hinnasiht kiiresti täituks. Kui ei täitu, siis tuleb sell-off. Lihtsalt, midagi, mida arvestada.
REDE puhul tuli üks konkreetne maja haipima ja tulemuseks oli lend $7-8 pealt $13-14 kanti. Ja siis kiire verelaskmine.
sB -
okei ...äkki seda kommenti ei võeta maha.
foorumite panemise jne.. reeglid võiks olla ühesugused kõigile.
lihtsalt, ma olen tulivihane ...
pikmemat aega nüüd foorumitest eemal ...very angry. -
RCO täna natuke rallitleb. põhjuseks kolm pangapäeva (T+3) tagasi sooritatud reversal split 1:60. Kuna mõned suuremad maaklerid (võibolla ka väiksemad) unustasid kliendikontodelt aktsia adjustida (60 eest 1 aktsia). Kliendid vaatasid, et aktsia on tõusnud päevaga kõvasti ja hakkasid müüma, et kasumit välja võtta. Reedel ja täna aga selgus, et kliendid olid aktsiaid hoopis lühikeseks müünud ja nüüd siis kaetakse...
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vōi noh, nii mōnigi account läks täna likvideerimisele...
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mis juhtus äkki RIMMiga?
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Kas keegi valgustaks mind CGTK tänase languse suhtes?
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Corgentech and BMY announce that edifoligide failed to show a benefit (CGTK) 19.00 : Co and Bristol-Myers (BMY) say two Phase 3 clinical trials for edifoligide, an investigational product to treat vein graft failure of the heart and leg, was generally well tolerated. However, the primary and secondary endpoints failed to show a benefit compared to the placebo group as defined as the rate of vein graft failure over the 12 months following surgery.
