Börsipäev 8. detsember
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Gapping Up
GEPT +39% (receives orders from Swiss Intl Air Lines), FORD +36% (continuation of momentum following yesterday's earnings report), STX +11% (guides higher; Deutsche and CIBC upgrades), BMRN +7% (started with a Buy at Hibernia; tgt $13), ALOY +7% (reports OctQ results), HITK +6.4% (reports OctQ), SHOP +5.9% (started with an Outperform at CSFB; tgt $33), MXO +5.2% (Needham upgrade), GMR +4.5% (FRO interested in a merger), NT +4.3% (to file restated results on Jan 10), NFLX +4.1% (Roth upgrade), CIPH +3% (momentum from 32% move yesterday), NVDA +2.7%, TZOO +2.6%.... Under $3: HOFF +28%, SCON +19% (receives purchase commitment from major wireless carrier), VLTS +6.6%, LNUX +4.6%.
Gapping Down
SIRI -8.9% (may be heading for dog days - WSJ column; Smith Barney and Bear Stearns downgrade; XMSR -2.2% down in sympathy), VIP -17% (hit with $158 million back tax claim for 2001; MBT -5.6% down in sympathy), PIXR -5.6% (delays release of "Cars" movie; Merrill downgrade), MBVT -12%, BIOM -9% (continues recent weakness), DYN -8% (guides), NTOP -8% (reports OctQ), THQI -5.6% (UBS downgrade), FRO -3.6% (wants to merge with GMR), DECK -3.4% (Piper downgrade), CHIR -3.2% (LA Times - Flu vaaccine factory shutdown extended), MGLN -2.8% (Aetna to Buy Certain Magellan Assets), PPC -2.7% (prices offering)... Gold/mining stocks weak as Gold prices plunge: NEM -3.4%, CDE -9%, GSS -8%, BGO -6.6%, GG -6.6%, PAAS -6.4%, WHT -5.1%, GOLD -4.4%, AU -3.6%, GLD -2.9%. -
Rev Shark:
Market Takes a Refreshing Breather
12/8/04 8:18 AM ET"Sweet are the uses of adversity which, like the toad, ugly and venomous, wears yet a precious jewel in his head."
-- William Shakespeare
The action in the major indices was certainly ugly but it was even ugly under the surface. Breadth was horrid, small-caps were laggards, many of the highfliers were pounded, and volume was heavy. This meltdown occurred even though crude oil, which has been a driving force lately, traded down. The fact that we have little positive macro economic news does not help matters.
Out of the gloom emerges one simple fact that provides a ray of sunshine: the market was badly extended and needed a consolidation or pullback in order to set up for further move upward. Healthy markets need basing, consolidation and profit taking in order to support a continued move upward.
The great difficulty is trying to predict how much of a pullback we are going to get or whether this might even be the beginning of the end of the huge rally that we've had since August. Is this simply the pause that rejuvenates and refreshes the market or the first shot across the bow that signals that the tide has turned?
A weak day like yesterday tends to give a sudden boost to the bearish arguments that have been ignored for so long. The dire warnings about slow economic growth, an overvalued market, interest rate pressures, weak consumer spending and so on take on a new light when the market pulls back. Market participants are always looking for glib explanations of why things occur in the market and they want it stated in fundamental terms rather than vague technical terms such as "an overbought market."
So what do we do at this point? We have no idea how far this pullback may go so we increase our caution. The key now is to protect capital and recent gains. If and when the market stabilizes there will be plenty of time to become more aggressive once again. We shift into a more defensive mode and wait for the market to prove itself.
I'd be surprised if the market rolled over and went straight down from here -- there is probably a sufficient supply of dip buyers with capital to prevent that from happening. We very well may pull back further but I suspect that buyers are lurking about, waiting for their opportunity. When the market is in a strong uptrend "buying the dip" tends to be a winning strategy. It's only after that fails to work a couple times that a downtrend kicks in.
A pullback had to happen eventually, and it doesn't mean the market is dead. In fact, it may set the stage for strength into the end of the year. However, we need to adopt a defensive posture for now and see if the market can find some support.
The early indications are slightly positive. Oil is lower again but the dollar is rallying and that is sending gold down. Asian markets benefited from the stronger dollar but Europe dragged because of weakness in technology shares. There is nothing of importance on the economic agenda.
Proceed with caution and protect your capital.
Gary B. Smith:
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Lehmani TA osakonna pealik Jeff DeGraaf täna hommikul oma klientidele:
"...So far the correction appears to be a resolution of the overbought condition, as only minor divergences have developed. Evidence that the “easy money” phase is behind us is mounting, but only sentiment remains at levels I would consider dangerous. Should the SPX fail to hold the 1163 level, evidence of a bull trap would begin to mount. At this point, playing for such an event appears premature, but remember, any security purchased from this time forward should be held as “Available for Sale...”.
- Sirius (SIRI) üllatas oma kukkumisega ilmselt isegi karusid. Nii järsk oli liikumine, mille taga oli negatiivne Wall Street Journali artikkel kui ka Smith Barney downgrade Sell peale. Ma hästi ei usu, et pullid veel päris alla andnud on.
- Goldmani reitingualandus Wal-Martile (WMT) ilmselt aitas turu üldisele negatiivsusele kaasa.
- Dollar tugevneb euro vastu ning see oli ka üks peamisi põhjuseid, miks futuurid täna hommikul üldse plussis olid. Ralli aasta lõpuni? Väga võimalik. Ma pole pikka aega näinud, et dollaril oleks nii kaua lastud rohelises istuda.
- QQQQ on kirjutamise hetkel tegemas väikest rallit. Testitakse karude meelekindlust.
long and sweaty morning.
sB
