Börsipäev 10. detsember
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Rev Shark:
Will Friday Offer Up a Case of Buyer's Remorse?
12/10/04 8:36 AM ET"My greatest point is my persistence. I never give up in a match. However down I am, I fight until the last ball. My list of matches shows that I have turned a great many so-called irretrievable defeats into victories."
-- Bjorn Borg
Yesterday's market action showed that the bulls are not willing to give up the fight. The bears had managed to gain a slight technical advantage with a crack in the uptrend line and had some bad news in the technology sector to work with at the start of the day. National Semiconductor (NSM:NYSE) posted a strong earnings report around midday and the bulls came roaring back. The bears have had so little success lately that many are not inclined to stick around for long when the market starts showing signs of strength.
But things weren't as rosy as they appeared. Breadth remained negative, small-caps were weak and semiconductors were still down fairly sharply on the day despite the good news from NSM. The bounce was not embraced in a manner that inspires confidence that the bulls are ready to run again after a correction that lasted all of a day and a half. There are obviously plenty of dip buyers lurking, but their reticence to more fully embrace some of the smaller-caps and more speculative stocks as the indices bounced is a sign that big-time momentum may not come charging back as quickly as the bulls hope.
Whether the market will be able to rally into the end of the year depends to a great degree on how psychology unfolds. The bulls have the big advantage of positive seasonality to help them out. It is widely known that December and January have tended to been strong months and that alone is enough to keep the bulls in the market and dip buyers looking for opportunities. On the other hand a surfeit of bullishness means that people are already heavily invested and we may not have the juice in the form of buying power to keep old man market rolling along.
The best thing that could happen to the bulls is for a little worry and concern to creep into the market. The bulls have been feeling fat and happy and that makes them increasingly vulnerable to the always devious Mr. Market. Our brief pause over the last couple of days was probably not enough to have a major effect on the mood of the bulls. The likelihood of a year-end run would increase nicely if we struggled more at this point, allowing for consolidation and keeping the mood from becoming too overheated.
It looks like the market is already having some second thoughts about yesterday's big bounce. Early indications are shaky. Crude oil is up on OPEC comments but the dollar is showing some strength and overseas markets are looking a bit perky. As is often the case, chip stocks remain a key indicator of the short-term direction of the market. If the chips continue to fade look for the broader market to struggle as well.
We are in for some tricky trading as Mr. Market figures out what it's going to do. Keep those stops in place and don't let losses get out of hand on a pullback.
Gary B. Smith:
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Tän üheks olulisemaks sündmuseks oli OPEC-i kokkusaamine, kus otsustati langetatda naftatootmist 1 miljoni barreli võrra päevas. Üldjoontes oli see oodatud ning nafta hind kerkis protsendi jagu 43 dollarile barreli eest.
Nasdaqi futuurid on 4 punkti miinuses, Dow futuurid 27 punkti miinuses. Suurematest uudistest on esikohal Sprindi ja Nexteli võimalik ühinemine, mille väärtuseks hinnatakse 30 miljardit dollarit.
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Gapping Up
JOBS +6.6%, WIN +5.7% (hires new CEO who was Albertson's COO), SIRI +5.2% (target raised to $9 from $6.50 at CIBC), SIPX +6.8% (highlighted in Business Week), ZICA +7.1%, VIP +5.2% (bouncing from 55% fall over last week or so), APHT +4.5%, PLMO +4.1% (started with a Buy at Merrill Lynch; tgt $46), CIEN +3.5% (CSFB upgrade), NXTL +2.6% (analysts positive on possible Sprint deal), FHRX +2.6% (Thomas Weisel upgrade), BZH +2.3% (announces 3-for-1 split), NVDA +2.2% (Thomas Weisel upgrade), TOL +2.2% (target raised to $72 from $60 at Merrill), AAPL +1.9% (positive FT article on iPod)..... Under $3: FNSR +17% (reports OctQ), VRSO +12% (call expected today to discuss operational goals - Lightreading.com), ALTH +8.1%
Gapping Down
SHFL -5.6% (reports OctQ, Roth downgrade), CHIR -2.4% (receives FDA warning letter), QTWW -13% (reports OctQ), ADIC -8.4% (Merriman downgrade), VTSS -5.1%, GORX -4.6% (class action lawsuit filed), ATVI -3.7% (reports Oct/Nov console sales), ADSX -3.2% (profit taking on recent move higher), CIN -2.5%, MOT -2.4%, GDT -2% (profit taking on recent move higher), RMBS -1.9% (had 'Secret Plot' on chips, FTC lawyer says -- Bloomberg.com).
