Börsipäev 16. detsember
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Rev Shark:
Small-Caps Belie Sluggish Major Indices
12/16/04 8:17 AM ET"For I have sworn thee fair, and thought thee bright, who art as black as hell, as dark as night."
-- William Shakespeare
The major market indices can be deceptive, because they aren't always representative of the actual health of the market. This occurs because all of the major indices are capitalization-weighted. A handful of big stocks such as Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) and General Electric (GE:NYSE) have a disproportionate effect on the indices because of their huge market caps.
A downtick in Microsoft can offset positive action in hundreds or even thousands of small-cap stocks because of its huge market capitalization. That means if we really want to understand what is going on the market it is necessary to look beyond the DJIA or the S&P 500.
Yesterday was a particularly good example of the deception of the major indices. Although the DJIA and Nasdaq made minor upward moves there was some very strong action in many smaller stocks. NYSE breadth was nearly 2 to 1 positive, which is quite impressive and was not reflected in the minor positive action of the DJIA.
What is happening is that a small group of big-cap stocks like Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) are doing little and keeping the indices capped while investors are sifting through smaller secondary stocks in search of the big movers. This is the time of the year when market participants traditionally seek out smaller-cap stocks and this year is no exception.
If you just looked at the major indices yesterday you might be fooled into thinking it was a poor day for the market. However, under the surface there were few signs that the recent aggressive buying is slowing. Investors had few qualms about buying smaller leadership and momentum stocks. That is where the action is and that is our key measure of market health at this time.
The time to worry will be when breadth deteriorates and the small-cap stocks begin to stumble. Once that happens profit taking will kick in and it will be time to take a more defensive stance. For now the upside momentum continues but it isn't in the big brand names that the popular media like to focus on. It is in the in the little tiny stocks that are largely ignored like Phazar (ANTP:Nasdaq), a small stock that's been trading on much higher-than-normal volume.
Early indications are slightly negative this morning as we await the weekly unemployment data. European markets were upbeat overnight as financial and health care stocks did well but the weak dollar kept the pressure on Asian markets. The market shrugged off a steep spike in crude oil prices yesterday but its ability to do that won't last forever. Crude is down a bit this morning but we'll have to keep an eye on it.
We should continue to have good trading opportunities for those who focus on the smaller-cap stocks but that doesn't mean there isn't substantial risk. If you play the small-cap momentum game make sure you are prepared to act fast.
Long ANTP
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
SEPR +13% (gets final FDA approval for Lunesta), ATVI +11% (guides higher), LONG +14% (IACI exercises warrant to buy 17.4 mln eLong shares), CNVX +21% (co and SRA announce collaboration), ISON +19% (says the marketing of explosive detector is on track), GG +11% (GLG announces takeover bid), VVUS +6.4% (gets FDA special protocol assessment), CVTX +5.7% (target raised to $35 from $29 at First Albany following positive trial results), NVDA +5% (target raised to $36 at Morgan Stanley), WYNN +3% (price target raised to $95 from $61 at Prudential), VRTS +2.6% (to merge with SYMC), OVTI +2.4% (started with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $22), AAPL +1.3% (iPods are in short supply at retailers nationwide - WSJ; iTunes Music Store downloads top 200 mln songs)... Under $3: BPUR +26% (receives notice of Nasdaq listing requirements), EASY +8.4% (IL state lottery selects EasyLink to support operations), TGAL +7% (awarded patent, announces orders), ALTH +6.2% (licenses new cancer compund).
Gapping Down
APOL -5.7% (earnings, Merrill downgrade), FNM -4.4% (WSJ says co is directed to restate results after SEC review), SYMC -4.4% (to merge with VRTS), ABAX -15% (co ends relationship with Vedco, guides), GLDN -8%, VDSI -6.7% (guides), IPXL -5% (First Albany downgrade), NBIX -3.7% (SEPR gets final FDA approval for competing drug), FDX -2.8% (reports NovQ), GS -2.8% (reports NovQ), COCO -2.7%, FRO -2.4%, GOOG -1.3% (Gartner warns clients not to use Google; started with a Neutral at BofA Sec, tgt $158; Bloomberg.com story - Google May Fall as More Restrictions End on Selling IPO Shares).... Under $3: ICOR -12% (transfers listing to Nasdaq SmallCap market from Nasdaq National market), XOMA -6%. -
Fannie Mae (FNM) jamad jätkuvad - SEC käskis neil viimase nelja aasta kasumiarvestuse üle vaadata. Ilmselt tuleb 9 mlrd. USD võrra kasumit vähendada. Kasum oli $23 mlrd, seega uus number oleks $13 mlrd..
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Tarkvarasektorist taas ühinemine, Symantec (SYMC) ostab Veritase (VRTS) ning maksab ettevõtte eest 13,5 miljardit dollarit. Uudis vana, kuid hind ja aktsionäride osalus uues ettevõttes teadmata (60:40 Symantec kasuks).
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Lehmani tehnilise analüüsi osakonna juht Jeff DeGraaf täna hommikul klientidel:
"We mentioned the quiet improvement in healthcare names earlier in the week, and today we sort through an eclectic universe to lay out those names we find most intriguing. Admittedly, the group is a laggard, but much of that is a reflection of the pain in
large-cap pharma, and not fully endemic of the group. Should any of the multiple imbalances in the current economy actually matter, we can not help but suspect that the mostly domestic and mostly defensive quality of healthcare proves to support a bullish backdrop to the sector..."
- Symantec (SYMC) pakub Veritase (VRTS) eest $13.5 mld ning dill tundub läbi minevat. Juhul muidugi, kui IBM või HPQ vahele ei tule ning kõrgemat hinda ei paku. SYMC + VRTS tehing iseenesest tundub väga naljakana kuna tegemist on päris erinevat tüüpi tarkvara tootvate tegijatega. SYMC on tuntud, kui turvatarkvara looja ning VRTS teeb storage area networkide (SAN) jaoks lahendusi.
Üks väike tegija, mis analüütikutele silma on jäänud on FalconStor Software (FALC). Tegemist on SAN sektori tarkvaratootjaga ning ega neid pure-playsid sinna enam palju jäänud ei olegi. Ilus graafik peale selle.
- Nagu kristjan juba mainis on iPodid pühade eel poodides otsa saanud (vähemalt USAs). Apple (AAPL) on siiski allpoole paari nädala eest tehtud tippe. Kas homme hommikul tuleb välja mõni analüütik hinnasihi kergitamisega? Maybe-baby.
- Väikesed biotechid hüppavad. XOMA, GTOP paar head näidet. Merck (MRK) ütles oma analüütikute päeval, et on teinud 50 tehingut sellel aastal ning kavatseb tempot 2005. aastal kiirendada. Pfizer (PFE) peab järgmise 3-4 aasta jooksul asendama $20 miljardi eest käivet. 2005. peaks biotechis olema hea aasta.
- LHV Pro uusim valik Forest Labs (FRX) rallitab. Mis on selle taga? Firma teatas paari päeva eest, et tõstab oma aktsiate tagasiostmisplaani 50% võrra.
- Siemens müüb kuuldvasti 1/3 oma Juniperi (JNPR) aktsiatest. Kokku 13 mln tk.
- Schering-Plough (SGP) leiab ka viimasel ajal ostjaid.
- Kui vaatate Select Comfortiga (SCSS) seotud uudiseid, siis eile teatas Winland Electronis (WEN), et SCSS on esitanud lisatellimusi voodite ehitamisel kasutatavatele komponentidele. Päris huvitav uudis. Sellest hoolimata peab juhtkond veebruaris rahulolematutele investoritele aru andma. Kuni selle ajani on SCSS ilmselt dead money.
- Täna õhtul PalmOne (PLMO) tulemused. Ootused loomulikult kõrgel.
sB -
AAC testib $1 taset.
Press Release Source: Ableauctions.com Inc.
Ableauctions Receives Ebay Development Certification and Releases Live Auction Platform Tools
Thursday December 16, 12:00 pm ET
FIFE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 16, 2004--Ableauctions.com Inc. (AMEX:AAC - News; the "Company") announced today that it has released 23 additional technology enhancements to its iCollector platform with the objective of further refining the Ebay Live Auction process.
The modifications provide auctioneers with critical time saving tools and better management of the pre and post auction process. Enhancements range form demographic real time reporting and charting to automatic invoicing with PayPal integration.
Highlights of the iCollector tool set can be viewed at: http://www.icollector.com/ourTechnology.aspx.
About iCollector.com
iCollector.com is a wholly owned subsidiary of Ableauctions and is the independent connection to the world's auction houses. It was the first company dedicated to trading antiques, fine art and premium collectibles on the Internet and today represents some of the world's leading auction houses. Since January 2001, it has broadcast hundreds of live auctions in real-time on eBay Live Auctions, directly from the salesroom as the auction happens. iCollector can help you find, buy or sell art, antiques and collectibles online. -
Kuidagi tihti tuleb viimasel ajal neid AAC uudiseid - ja hind muudkui tõuseb :) tore.
Aga muidu tundub olevat videolaenutuste päev - BBI teatas, et sai novembris 9,3 miljonit veebikülastajat NFLXi 8,2 miljoni vastu (aasta tagasi olid numbrid 2m vs. 9m) ja on üleval 10% ning NFLX ka korralikud 6% ... -
Wow dollar!
Muideks hetkel saab dollareid osta 11,801 krooniga. Samas hetkekurss on EUR/USDi põhjal 11,85. -
SPEA täna tasakesi tōuseb... 6000%
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Mnjah...teeb tuju lõbusaks ausalt öeldes :)
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käibe kasv on ka tore, 3 kuu keskmine on 2867 aktsiat päevas ja hind pole üle 0.20 USD käinud, seega a la 573 USD päevas .... täna kaubeldud 1181408 aktsiat oluliselt kõrgematel hinnatasemetel, juba avanemishind on 0.37 USD ...
