Börsipäev 17. detsember
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Rev Shark:
Trading Opportunities Remain Robust
12/17/04 8:49 AM ETExperience shows that success is due less to ability than to zeal. The winner is he who gives himself to his work body and soul.
-- Charles Buxton
The bullish zeal cooled a little yesterday as technology stocks stumbled and a bout of profit-taking set in. The question on the minds of market participants this morning is whether this is an indication that the beginning of the end of a tremendous rally is near, or if this is just a brief pause that will set the stage for a year-end run.
All you have to do is glance at an index chart to understand why so many think it is prudent to be increasingly cautious. The market has been going straight up since August, and the pace of the rise has been even greater since the first of November. It is just plain old common sense to believe that we are going to have a nasty correction at some point, but in the market, timing is everything.
Should we start anticipating the inevitable correction now? Although the market is extended, there still is no technical breach that should have us thinking more defensively. The biggest problem right now is the weakness in the semiconductors and technology stocks in general. The chips have not been very good leaders for a while, and that is an important group.
I suspect that news that the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has approved a rule that would require companies to expense stock options, commencing in June 2005, was the catalyst for selling of big-cap technology stocks. This rule would hurt tech company earnings the most due to their lenient use of options to attract and retain employees. The concerns are probably premature. There are still legislative hurdles to surmount, but it was a convenient catalyst for selling of technology shares.
It is going to take more than a bunch of accountants to kill market momentum, especially at this time of the year. The dip buyers are out there and have been not so patiently waiting for their opportunity to buy weakness. That is the primary driving force in this market right now, and we forget that at our peril.
Even if technology and chip stocks do struggle, watch for a rotation out of those groups and into stocks that appear to be more reasonable valued such as builders, drugs and health care. Even biotechnology stocks, which tend to move on "stories" rather than valuation, are likely to benefit from rotation out of technology should that occur.
Don't be too quick to anticipate the end of this market rally. There is a lot of folks out there still willing to buy, and trading opportunities are likely to stay robust.
Early indications are improving. Overseas market were generally weak. Oil is flat and there isn't a lot of market-moving news. Don't forget today is option expiry, and that may cause some price pinning.
I'm running way behind this morning. TGIF.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
Some biotechs are up big on news that AstraZeneca's Iressa poor test results: OSIP +47%, DNA +6.8%, IMCL +4.5%.... Other News: JOBS +5.6% (highlighted favorably in IBD), CNLG +19% (receives approval from two major Canadian utilities), BLDP +11% (announces CDN$55 mln investment by DCX and Ford), GEPT +10% (announces $2 mln order), GORX +10% (provides Mucotrol update), STEM +6.7%, NKE +4.8% (reports NovQ), AIG +2.1%... Under $3: MCLD +75% (enters multi-year agreement with MCI), DYTK +28% (co expects to exceed quarterly rev target), ICOR +28% (receives notice of allowance on metabolomics patent), UVSL +26%, POCI +21%.
Gapping Down
PLMO -16% (Merrill and Bear Stearns downgrades following NovQ report and guidance), AZN -8.7% (AstraZeneca's Iressa has poor test results), LF -16% (cuts forecast, significantly below expectations), EFII -11% (Merrill downgrade following lowered guidance), CDSS -32% (guides below consensus), ELON -6% (cut to Sell from Neutral at Opco), CC -5% (reports NovQ), COMS -4% (reports NovQ), TTWO -2.8% (misses by $0.19, guides below consensus), ADBE -2.6% (reports NovQ), SANM -2.2% (reports delay in filing of 10-K).... Under $3: ANLT -20% (auditor issues a going concern qualification), WAVX -18% (to complete $5.8 mln offering under $25 mln shelf registration). -
Pfizer eelturul 4,5 punkti miinuses ehk 16%. Probleemid Celebrexiga.
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Farmaatsiasektori indeksaktsia PPH koguni -5% selle peale.
(Just paistsid nii farmaatsiasektor tervikuna, kui ka PFE ja MRK eraldi, juba päris ilusad). -
Muuseas, täna ju optsioonireede, 58 000 lepingut open interesti turuhinna juurest täna lõppevatele optsioonidele näitab, et mõned market makerid said kindlasti kõvasti haiget selle liikumisega.
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vip uus maksunõue -323m usdi
lõbusamaks läheb -
Mis FNM'i küll üleval hoiab ?
Eilne uudis 9 mlrd. võrra kasumi vähendamisest ei ole aktsiat eriti kõigutanud. -
Nagu ütlesin, ma ei usu, et VIPi jamad veel läbi oleks. Ega ka RTSi omad.
FNM puhul on tegu ilmselt väga suure osa fondijuhtidega, kes oma positsiooni toetavad. Üks üsna (minu silmis) respekteeritud turuosaline arvas, et antud probleemide puhul oleks reaalsem hind $40 juures. -
PFE võiks varsti juba osade kaupa ostma hakata
