Börsipäev 21. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Pühad pole ainult meie ümber, vaid ka USA turul. Kuuldavasti on paljud kauplemisdeskid juba pooltühjad ja ilmselt vajub nädala lõpuks käive ka üsna ära. Õhuke turg võib pakkuda üsna tugevaid liikumisi.
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Reedene päev on üldse kinni USAs... Enamus Euroopast on samuti suletud
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Cody Willard:
Now Is Not the Time for Aggressive Trading
12/21/04 8:41 AM ETWe're in the homestretch to close out this year. The biggest question in my mind in the next couple of weeks is whether or not the money-manager jockeys will push their horses to the limit into year-end.
The biggest winners of the year, stocks like Research In Motion (RIMM:Nasdaq) and eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq), have delivered stellar returns and there's a lot of money managers who'd love to squeeze out a few more basis points and take home a little extra bonus. With the volume low, the bears exhausted and spent up, and with the managers who are in these winners bringing in lots of new money, there's a good mixture to combust a strong sprint to close out the year.
On the other hand, this market is still extended. We've already had such a huge move in general and these stocks in particular have just flown on wings of gold. Nobody's gonna want to give up these gains and those aforementioned bears have done a lot of towel throwing, eliminating some fuel to the bid.
If you're wondering what my conclusion is -- wondering if I'm saying it's a good risk/reward scenario for the bull case or the bear case in the near term -- and thinking to yourself that Cody's not laying out a clear bull or bear case here, well, you're right. I'm not really excited about either case right now.
Those great valuations that presented themselves this summer -- when stocks like Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) were trading at less than 15 times forward earnings, and OmniVision Technologies (OVTI:Nasdaq) at less than 10 times forward earnings -- are no longer here (except maybe for the homebuilders, but that's not my game, as much as I wish it were). Meanwhile, the economy sure continues to look like it's fine and profit forecasts, for the most part, remain in growth mode. (Remember when nobody thought the second-half estimates were even close to doable?)
Things are clearly okay now, and that's half my problem with being overly bullish here. Most people can clearly see that things are okay. Where's the advantage? So even as indicators, like corporate bond spreads, remain at historically bullish levels, and even as I still know that most all of my hedge fund brethren remain convinced that 2005 will (finally, really, truly this time) be the year that the economy and markets collapse (a strong consensus like that is usually a great contrarian indicator), I'm just not inclined to put new money to work here.
I continue to trim down some positions that I'm not excited about and nibble on some that I like. But I'm pretty steady-as-she-goes here. The time for aggressive buying (or selling/shorting, for that matter) will come again.
Speaking of INTC, it got another upgrade and number boost today, this time from Lehman, basically according to Jim Cramer's playbook. The open looks like it wants to be a little bit higher than yesterday's close. We'll have to see if the bulls can actually make it stick today.
Long OVTI calls, INTC calls; short OVTI
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Gapping Up
IACI +10% (plans to split off its Expedia travel business), CVC +8.6% (suspends Rainbow Media spin-off), SMIT +23% (reports NovQ), NRRD +14% (to be acquired by BBOX), REMC +12% (Cobham buys Remec unit for $260 mln), EGHT +11% (initiated with Buy and $7 tgt at Needham), ARNA +11% (to collaborate with JNJ's Ortho-McNeil), VIP +10% (Russia could cut Vimpelcom's back tax claim-Reuters), GERN +9% (receives patent), KFX +6% (completes license agreement), VNUS +6% (publication of positive clinical study), ISON +5.3%, SNDA +5% (initiated with Buy and $50 tgt at Roth Capital), MIKR +5%, PLAY +4.2% (intiated with a Buy at Hudson Square; tgt $35), OSIP +3% (target raised to $111 from $90 at Bear Stearns), CTXS +2.6% (signs 5-yr tech collaboration and licensing agreement with Microsoft), SEPR +2.3% (higher on NBIX news), NOK +2.2%, PFE +2% (discussed favorably in Barron's Online), INTC +1.6% (Lehman upgrade), NYER +13% (election of directors puts co in Nasdaq compliance).... Under $3: VCMP +64% (awarded contract by BearingPoint), GNBT +23% (co and Elan terminate joint venture), EPMN +20% (provides uUpdate on cancer and HIV programs), IBIS +6%.
Gapping Down
SSTI -20% (guides lower, cut to Sell from Hold at WR Hambrecht; Piper downgrade), LFUS -17% (guides well below consensus), CTIC -5.4% (enters into financing agreement with PharmaBio Development), ENCY -5.3% (disappointing clinical data), NBIX -4.1% (NDA to be reformated), ATYT -3.2% (reports NovQ, revs light), SIRI -2.4% (profit taking after recent strong run). -
Mis selle AMD'ga on juhtunud, et niimoodi ära kukkus? Lihtsalt korrektsioon?
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AMD puhul võetakse ilmselt kasumit. Paari kuuga ju aktsia pea kahekordistus.
Aga hommikul mainitud pühade vaikelu hakkab juba võimust võtma - käive on keskmisest juba tublisti madalam ning ühes USA tradingdeskis on turu jälgimise asemel käimas võistlus, kas üks noorem kaupleja suudab 2 naela (900 gr.) shokolaadi kiiresti ära süüa. -
Olympic Steel (ZEUS), yletas tana $27 piiri, vaga hea aktsia pikaajaliseks investeerimiseks.
Soovitasin seda juba nadalaid tagasi "Soovitage haid aktsiaid" rubriigis. -
Tuligi siin valja, miks ZEUS tana t6usu teel on, homme avatakse uus metalli index fond: SIG.
Sinna sai ka ZEUS valitud.
SIG Steel Producers Index(TM) (STQ) to Launch
Monday December 20, 2:45 pm ET
BALA CYNWYD, Pa., Dec. 20 /PRNewswire/ -- Susquehanna International Group, LLP (SIG)*, a leading institutional broker, source of equity research and liquidity provider, is pleased to announce that it will begin trading options on the newly created SIG Steel Producers Index(TM) (STQ) on Wednesday, December 22, 2004. The STQ will trade on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX).
The STQ is an equal dollar weighted index consisting of 15 publicly traded steel companies. With STQ, investors can capitalize on the many international as well as domestic trends which influence the demand, pricing and supply of steel and steel products. Trade issues and country specific policies have a clear and direct impact on the sector at large. Because of the frequency with which such issues materialize, the steel sector can be characterized by significant volatility. With STQ, investors can harness this volatility to capture upside appreciation or hedge against sector specific risks.
SIG Steel Producers Index (STQ) Component Issues:
AKS AK Steel Holding Corporation
ATI Allegheny Technologies Inc.
CRS Carpenter Technology Corporation
ISG International Steel Group, Inc.
MT Mittal Steel Company N.V.
NUE Nucor Corporation
ZEUS Olympic Steel, Inc.
OS Oregon Steel Mills, Inc.
RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.
RT Ryerson Tull, Inc.
SCHN Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc.
STLD Steel Dynamics Inc.
STTX Steel Technologies Inc.
X United States Steel Corporation
WOR Worthington Industries, Inc.
The Susquehanna International Group of Companies (SIG), a leading institutional sales, research and market making firm, offers renowned execution expertise in listed, NASDAQ, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), options, program trading and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). SIG also provides unbiased, differentiated equity research to the institutional asset management community. SIG encompasses a NASDAQ market making operation in over 3,000 stocks, is among the nation's largest option market makers and specialist in over 600 option classes, is the leading sector index options trading firm and is one of the largest liquidity providers in ETFs. SIG has offices in Bala Cynwyd, Boston, Chicago, Dublin, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Sydney. For more information, please visit http://www.sig.com.
* SIG's research is published and distributed by Susquehanna Financial
Group, LLLP ("SFG"), the firm's institutional brokerage affiliate.
Research sales staff and analysts are all employees of SFG. SIG does
not engage in investment banking. -
Kui juba Fondid hakkavad ZEUS kokku ostma, siis 6ige aeg positsiooni suurendada.
