Börsipäev 4.-5. jaanuar
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Rev Shark:
Rear View: What Drove Yesterday's Action
1/4/05 8:20 AM ET"He that struggles with us strengthens our nerves, and sharpens our skill. Our antagonist is our helper."
-- Edmund Burke
Investors, who had been confident and optimistic for several months, started off the new year with a bout of nervousness. The persistent and, some would say, unrealistic optimism gave way yesterday to doubt and uncertainty as a euphoric open fizzled and aggressive profit-taking set in for the reminder of the day. It was the worst technical action the market has experienced in quite some time with poor breadth and heavy volume.
Is this it? Is this the beginning of the end of the powerful rally we have been riding since August? Any reasonable person who looks at a chart of the stock market action since the bottom in August would have to conclude that we will eventually see a pretty good pullback or at least a rest of some magnitude.
The question isn't whether we will have a pullback, it is a question of when, and to what degree. Investors who have had a good run for months now are inclined to give into their nerves and become cautious quickly. We had a taste of that yesterday as profit-taking persisted throughout the day with very little bounce once it started.
The market requires a very careful balancing act at this point. There are plenty of good reasons to be cautious and to expect a correction to kick in but the conditions that have created this surging market in the first place have not dissipated. In particular the likelihood of continued cash inflows is one good reason not to become too negative about the market too quickly. That is a powerful driver and we have to be careful not to overlook it as we struggle with our nerves.
The question many are pondering is whether the selling yesterday was just a reversal of window dressing, and sellers who have delayed profit-taking for tax reasons. Maybe, but there is no way to be certain. We have to take it for what it was, which was poor technical action that should make us a bit more cautious. The burden of proof has shifted slightly to the bulls and they have to convince us that things are indeed OK.
I believe there is a good chance that positive seasonal factors at the beginning of the new year will help the market, so I'm not inclined to be overtly bearish, but a little caution is certainly prudent. Market participants tend to err on the side of being too early and I don't want to fall into that trap at the first sign of a little weakness.
Early market action is slightly positive. The Nikkei hit a six-month high overnight and European stocks are holding up as oil continues to skid and the dollar shows some strength. Walmart (WMT:NYSE) announced that holiday sales weren't that bad after all but Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq) has a downgrade.
We'll see if the bulls can shake off yesterday's poor action. I wouldn't be to quick to count them out.
Gary B. Smith:
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USA turud on alustamas kerges plussis, aasta esimene kauplemispäev oli üsna negatiivne, teist kauplemispäeva on toetamas kiirelt tugevnenud dollar.
A.G. Edwards alandas Amazoni (AMZN) reitingut "müü" tasemele, tuues välja suurenenud konkurentsi antud sektoris. Eelturul langes aktsia 3%.
Lennufirmad on USA-s endiselt raskes olukorras Southwest Airlines (LUV) teatas, et lennukite täituvuse aste langes detsembris 64% (aasta tagasi) 62,9 protsendile.
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Gapping Up
INTZ +78% (Fort Hood selects co to secure world's largest U.S. army post), MDKI +19% (recent momentum favorite), TCNO +10% (to be acquired by UGS), GENR +9.8% (announces selection of Squalamine into FDA's marketing application pilot 2 program), ESLR +9% (started with a Buy at Merriman), ZIXI +7.8% (renews and expands contract with MultiPlan), MIKR +6.7% (recent momentum favorite), ALVR +5% (expected to unveil a big strategic partner soon - First Albany), MANT +4.7% (wins $76 mln military contract), DCAI +4.4% (recent momentum favorite), THOR +4.2% (SunTrust upgrade), STTX +3.8% (guides DecQ higher), ADLR +3.5% (to co-promote GlaxoSmithKline's Arixtra)... Stem Cell stocks are strong on news that STEM will start a small trial of brain stem cells: STEM +17%, ASTM +8%, GERN +3.2%...... Other News: VTIV +2.8% (wins contract with BMY), UTSI +2.5% (announces partnership with Vonage).... Under $3: MCLD +23% (extends contract with state of Iowa), TGEN +21% (announces collaboration).
Gapping Down
ZOLL -15% (preliminary Q1 results below consensus; guides Y05 below consensus), KNTA -6.3% (CIBC downgrade), ISSI -5.7% (guides lower, WR Hambrecht downgrade), EMN -4.9% (guides lower), KKD -4.4% (announces decision to restate financial statements; co knew of slow sales says lawsuit - AP), AMZN -4.2% (cut to Sell at Smith Barney), PRFT -4.1% (profit taking after 42% move yesterday), NENG -3.8%, ANTP -3.7% (profit taking after recent strong move), STO -2.9%, SEBL -2.9% (cut to Mkt Perform at Bernstein). -
Börsipäev 4. detsember????
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GOOG võitleb jälle $200 tasemega.
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Paar päeva päris koledat langust. Eilne päev oli tõeline horror-show pullide jaoks. Peab ütlema, et turg pole nii negatiivse sentimentiga juba kuid olnud. Kõige naljakam on see, et ühtegi uudist selle languse taga nagu ei olnudki. Pigem leidus rohkesti analüütikuid, kes prognoose/reitinguid/hinnasihte tõstsid.
Mis saab täna? Ma usun, et asjad ei ole tech aktsiate koha pealt nii halvad, kuniks kuubikud (QQQQ) suudavad trendi säilitadada. Selle murdumisel võib langus jätkuda veel nädala(id):
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QQQ -0.5%. See sillutab teed põrkeks. Või vähemalt ma nii loodan.
sB -
Rev Shark:
Two Reasons We Should Stabilize Soon
1/5/05 7:43 AM ET"There is a time to take counsel of your fears, and there is a time to never listen to your fear."
-- General George S. Patton
The market kicked off the new year with the worst two days of selling since the current uptrend started back in mid-August. The profit-taking was particularly brutal in stocks that have had the strongest upside momentum in recent months. That is not terribly surprising. Stocks that make big moves going up are likely to make them going down. That doesn't take the sting out of a day like yesterday and it helps to fan the flames of fear and panic when the drops in favorite stocks are so severe.
There certainly are some things to worry about in this market. The semiconductors have been particularly weak for some time now. They were laggards throughout 2004 and have not been able to confirm the strength in the Nasdaq for quite some time. The chips will always be an important group since they are the fundamental building blocks of the broader technology group. Thus relative weakness in semiconductors bodes poorly for the Nasdaq.
Another major problem for the market is that we are still quite technically extended even after the selling of the last two days. The Nasdaq went from a low of 1750 on Aug. 13 to a high of 2192 this past Monday morning. That is an impressive 25% move, or 442 points. The last two days of selling has taken the Nasdaq down 85 points from its high. So we have given back 19% of the gain since August, which isn't insubstantial but is fairly mild as far as corrections go when we've had a rally of this speed and magnitude.
The Federal Reserve gave the market a couple more reasons to worry yesterday after the minutes of its last meeting were released. Despite the rather benign language in the Fed's policy statement the minutes made it clear that there are factions within the Fed that more concerned about inflation than previously thought. The market reacted by pricing in the possibility of more aggressive interest rate hikes in the future.
In addition to the increased inflation fears the FOMC minutes also made note of "potentially excessive risk-taking" in financial markets, including the stock market. If sellers didn't already have some excuses to take profits, comments of that sort may have gotten them thinking.
That brings us to the question of the day: Should we be taking counsel of our fears? Should we anticipate further downside ahead and take defensive action? Or is this a time to stand tough and attempt to withstand the onslaught of negativity and selling?
I've been somewhat sanguine about the selling the past two days because of its timing right at the start of the new year. It is fairly obvious that part of the action is because of sellers waiting until the new year to take profits in order to delay tax consequences. That pressure scared off the buyers and created some downside momentum. Normally I would be more concerned about this action as a precursor of further downside but we have two factors at work that make me think we will stabilize fairly quickly.
The primary one is the traditional January cash inflows into the market. I suspect that will kick in fairly soon and provide some support. Once that happens the dip buyers who have been missing the rally throughout the fourth quarter are likely to venture back in.
The second driver we have coming up is earnings season. I don't know if earnings reports are going to be anything special but the anticipation of good earnings should help shore up things at least for a little while. The likelihood of a "sell the news" reaction to the actual earnings reports seems like a good possibility but it's premature to worry about that.
I believe there is a high likelihood that the market bounces back but that doesn't mean we should proceed with reckless abandon. We'll have to monitor buying interest and see if it is strong enough to resurrect the upside momentum.
Overseas markets were mostly down overnight in sympathy with the weakness in the U.S. yesterday. Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) has estimates raised by Goldman but Merrill started Google (GOOG:Nasdaq) with a neutral rating, calling the stock fully valued. Oil was up sharply yesterday but is pulling back a bit this morning. Futures are slightly positive but this market looks nervous.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
RMBS +6% (can pursue Hynix patent infringement case -- Bloomberg.com), NVTL +5.6% (reaffirms Q4 guidance), SEBL +4.7% (guides Q4 above consensus), SIRI +2.5% (to collaborate with Microsoft to develop video service), AMD +1.9% (Wells Fargo upgrade), ISON +17% (begins supplying rare cancer-fighting isotope to the NIH), TAGS +27% (signs deal with Jessica Simpson), ENTU +11% (guides above consensus), LSI +8.4% (guides higher), CRXA +7.6% (Gen-Probe announces license deal with CRXA), KVHI +7.3%, EGHT +6.3% (signs national distribution agreement), CNVX +5.8% (started with a Buy at Hibernia; tgt $19), CERS +5.7% (co and BioOne to commercialize Intercept Plasma in Asia), FRO +4.7% (bounces from recent weakness -- down 36% in a month), TOPT +4.2% (Hibernia upgrade), JWN +3% (reports strong same store sales).... Under $3: IIP +15% (President Bush names co's CEO to National Infrastructure Advisory Council), SFLK +12% (announces Homeland Security subcontract ), TGEN +7.8% (adds to 7% move yesterday).
Gapping Down
Stem Cell stocks seeing profit taking after huge moves yesterday: STEM -8.9%, ASTM -6.1%.... Other News: XLNX -5.1% (guides Q4 lower; down in sympathy: ALTR -3.6%, BRCM -1.9%).... Other News: TMTA -16% (cut to Sell from Hold at AG Edwards as the co mulls exit from processors), INOD -21% (guides lower, announces share offering), ANTP -10% (profit taking after recent strong move), SCON -21% (lowers rev guidance below consensus), BPUR -13% (to raise $11.3 mln through common stock sale), HOFF -11% (continues 14% slide yesterday), MCLD -7.6% (profit taking after recent strong move), AAII -7.5%, MCRL -6.3% (lowers Q4 guidance), ISIL -4.8%, ARBA -2.9% (initiated at SG Cowen -- believes stock is overvalued), MEDI -2.2% (Lazard downgrade)... Recent momentum names seeing profit taking: TAYD -5%, WGAT -3.3%. -
Turud on USA-s taas avanemas miinuses, kuid põrkeks on siiski veel head võimalused. Nafta hind on alanemas ning positiivse kommentaari oma kvartali tulemuste kohta on andnud Siebel Systems (SEBL).
Circuit City (CC) teatas, et samade poodide müük detsembris oli aastatagusega võrreldes 5,8% väiksem, eriti nõrk oli arvutite, DVD ja videoseadmete ja videomängude müük. Suurematelt jaemüüjatelt on tulemusi oodata neljapäeval.
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Põrget ikka nägid kõik? Kui ei, siis i think you blinked!
sB -
AvondalePartners alustas täna hommikul Netflixi (NFLX) katmist Market Perform reitingu ning $14.5 hinnasihiga. Kuigi analüütik ei andnud aktsiale oma kõrgeimat reitingut on minu arvates tegemist ühe viimase aja parima kommentaariga, mida peaksid lugema nii pullid kui karud:
- DVD leanutamise turg on alles oma lapsekingades. Kogu laenutusturu suuruseks Ameerikas on hetkel $8-9 miljardit dollarit ning internetipõhine äri moodustab sellest väikese osa. Netflix on praegu suurima turuosaga tegija (Sept 2004 seisuga 90%). 90% turuosa ei jää kindlasti püsima (BBI väidab omavat 500K klienti NFLX 2.2 mln vastu), kuid turust peaks jätkuma kõigile. Netflixi käive kasvas 2003. aastal 90%.
- Avondale märgib, et kuigi konkurents Blockbusteri, Wal-Marti ning Amazoni näol kasvab, on karude poolt maalitud pilt Netflixi hävingust liialdus.
- Netflixil on kõige suurem filmide baas ning enam kui 400 mln datapunkti sisaldav andmebaas eelistustest. See lubab paremini hallata varusid. Lisaks sellele on Netflixil head suhted kõigi suuremate filmistuudiotega. Konkurentidel selliseid andmebaase ei ole (vs võibolla AMZN).
- Avondale toob välja ka selle, et Netflix võib tulevikus hakata raha teenima ka reklaami pealt. Filmistuudiod kulutasid 2003. aastal $18 miljardit uute filmide reklaamiks ning ainult 1.3% sellest rahast kasutati internetireklaami peale. Netflix oma suure kasutajabaasiga oleks suurepärane reklaamikanal.
Minu arvates on Avondale analüüsi kõige olulisem osa 5. leheküljel, kus räägitakse Netflixi ärimudeli "surmavast veast". Nimelt on karude üheks peamiseks argumendiks (lisaks konkurentsile) see, et mida tihemini/rohkem kliendid DVDsid laenutavad, seda vähem NFLX teenib. Kuna Netflix võtab fixed-fee oma teenuse eest, siis võib tekkida olukord, kus tiheda laenutusperioodi käigus muutuvad saatmis/käitlemiskulud nii suureks, et kuutasu neid enam ei kata. Hetkel laenutab keskmine klient 6.6 DVD kuus.
Avondale märgib, et mida vanemaks kliendibaas saab, seda vähem hakatakse laenutama. Tunnistan, et tulin ise mõne aja eest samale järeldusele. Näitena sellest tooksin aasta 2000. mil ostsin endale elu esimese lap-top arvuti. See oli ka aasta, mil hakkasid levima mitmesugused P2P failivahetusprogrammid nagu Napster jt. Esimese poole aastaga oli mu 10 Gb kõvakettast muusikaga täidetud ca 3/4. See IBM-i läpakas oli mu truu trading-partner kuni 2004. aasta detsembrini, kuni ühel hommikul ta enam ei käivitunud. Loo point nagu paljud juba ilmselt taipasid oli see, et lühikese ajaga suutsin ma ära tõmmata 3/4 nendest lugudest, mida hing ihaldas. Ülejäänud 3 1/2 aastaga suutsin tõmmata vaid ca 2.5 Gb jagu muusikat.
Usun, et sama juhtub ka NFLX-i puhul. Mida suuremaks kasvab kliendibaas ning mida vanemaks (mature) see saab, seda vähem hakatakse laenutama ühe kliendi kohta. See $17.99 on aga piisavalt väike kogus raha, et teenust mitte katkestama hakata. Igal inimesel on 50-100 filmi, mida kangesti näha tahaks. Peale seda muututakse NFLX seisukohast ideaalkliendiks (1-2 DVDd kuus).
Tuletan meelde, et NFLX on väga-väga volatiilne aktsia ning sobib vaid kõrget riski taluvale investorile.
Analüüs ise leidub LHV Pro all
Kas kusagil tänapäeval veel läpakaid parandab ka? Või on targem uus osta?
sB -
kartsin, et juba kukub välja, aga vist põrkasimegi. nasdaq hetkel 0,1ga plussi tagasi roninud. saab näha ;)
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Betti oskad arvata või kahtlustada mis tal viga on ?
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Toitega tundub mingi jama olevat. Paar korda on isegi käima läinud aga siis sureb mõne minuti pärast maha. Nagu mõni kaitse oleks läbi.
Aga lets face it, 4 aastat on läpaka jaoks kuradi pikk iga ka. IBM.
sB -
Väga mõistukõneline jutt, saa sa nüüd aru, kas jutt käib läpakast või turu hetkeolukorra kohta...:)
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mumeelest bettie kommentaar läppari kohta kõlbab isegi 5jaanuari börsi iseloomustamiseks. et toitega oli tõepoolest pisut jama. paar korda võttis vedu aga suri kohe jälle ära. päeva lõpus võttis täitsa läbi :-)
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IBM ownib:) Loomulikult hangi uus, ega sa siis niii kokkuhoidlik ka ei pea olema:))
See vana läppar on sul mingi PII ju? Kuidas ta turu tippajal vastu peab infovoolule üldse?
28K eest saab tippmudeli: IBM ThinkPad T42 UC2FWSH Pentium M Dothan 1,6GHz 512MB 40GB 14,1" CD-RW/DVD Combo Windows XP Pro -
Vähemalt on AMD järelturul kosunud, muidu ütleks, et aktsia on nagu mu vana compaqi laptop (AMD 2000+ siiski), mille parandamine maksaks rohkem kui terve osta - kui mina käpa peale saan, kisub asi viltu.
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Kolme viimase päevaga on pooljuhtide indeks SMH oma väärtusest kaotanud pea 6%, tehes niigi kesise tõusu veelgi kesisemaks. Viimati rõhus pooljuhte siis programmeeritavate loogikaseadmete (PLD) tootja Xilinx'i (XLNX) käibehoiatus. Firma teatas 11-12% käibe vähenemisest lõppenud kvartalis (võrreldes eelmise kvartaliga), mis seab Xilinx'i prognoosid ühele pulgale konkurent Altera (ALTR) omadega, kes näeb samuti kuni 12% müügi kahanemist. Veel detsembris prognoosis Xilinx käibe 5-8% vähenemist, millega ta tol hetkel konkurent Altera'st paremasse valgusesse jäi.
Pilk ka graafikule. Nagu näha, on viimaste päevade tugev langus (suure käibega) viinud SMH oktoobri lõpu tasemetele. Kui välja arvata hiljutine Xilinx'i hoiatus, on languse otseseid põhjusi küllaltki raske leida. Ühest küljest võib eeldada, et mitmedki investorid on enne algavat majandustulemuste hooaega ettevaatlikud ning on riskide maandamiseks müügipoolele asunud. Teisalt võib tegemist olla lihtsalt korrektsiooniga, mida suuremad indeksid juba ammu on oodanud.
Tehniline pilt on igatahes kole - murtud trendijoon ja kolm tugeva käibega languspäeva järjest. Lühiajalisele ülemüüdusele viidates ei oleks kerge põrge aga üllatuseks.
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Fit,
Ma loodan, et Sa ikka konksutasid molema kaega kahte nappu korvade lahedal kui sona "tippmudel" kirjutasid?:) -
Irw spunk:) Nojah, kõige-kõigem mudel maksaks jah 2,5X rohkem ja tradinguinfo jälgimise jõudlus tõuseks 2,5% heal juhul.
