Oplink - vaikus enne tormi
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Needham üllitas täna 100 lk-se analüüsi oma top pickidest 2005. aasta osas ning optiliste komponentide tootjatest on nende lemmikud Coherent ja Oplink. Eks näis, Oplink on küll viimasel ajal kõvasti pihta saanud, kuid fundamentaalselt tundub firma väga atraktiivne ja on kindlasti üks paremaid stocke turnaroundile panustamisel. Olulised uudised on peagi tulekul ja sealt ka siis ka edasine suund.
Top Picks: Coherent and Oplink
Coherent (COHR, $30.22, Buy)
We think Coherent is a combination of secular revenue growth combined with ongoing and one-time
cost reductions. In the laser industry, new laser technologies such as diode-pumped semiconductor
lasers are enabling the flexible creation of new wavelengths (i.e., colors) of light and therefore, new
applications, and these lasers are smaller and use less power than their predecessor gas lasers. At the
same time, Coherent is seeing the results of profitability improvement programs begun two years ago,
and is currently developing another set of improvements. In addition, the acquisition of the German
Lambda Physik subsidiary (likely to close in January 2005) should offer cost savings from eliminating
the expense of being public in Germany, as well as access to the tax benefits of $36 million in NOLs.
Moreover, Coherent recently announced that it is curtailing its investment in lithography lasers, which
represented 25% of corporate R&D spending.
Oplink (OPLK, $1.87, Buy)
In 2002, Oplink took the radical step of moving R&D and manufacturing to China, well ahead of its
competitors, and we believe Oplink is the only optical component manufacturer that is generating
positive cash flow from operations. The company has a pristine balance sheet with $186 million in cash
and investments and no debt. Moreover, cash from operations should improve by another $600,000
per quarter from the June quarter due to the acquisition of a new headquarters. Oplink is nearing the
completion of its acquisition of Taiwanese EZConn, which would more than double its size, add a
profitable business and provide it with modules for FTTP.
