Börsipäev 31.jaanuar
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Iraagi valimised võib kordaläinuks lugeda, seetõttu ka USA futuurid korralikus plussis. Iraagi iseseisva valitsuse teke võib kiirendada USA vägede väljatõmbamist. Ühe ametniku sõnul isegi 18 kuu jooksul. See on selgelt hea USA eelarvele. Halb on see aga kaitsetööstusele, näiteks: ba drs edo gd hon hrs lmt lll noc rtn tdy utx crdn ah ja atk.
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Rev Shark:
Optimism on Tap, but as Always, Watch the Open
1/31/05 8:29 AM ET"The freeman, casting with unpurchased hand the vote that shakes the turrets of the land."
-- Oliver Wendell Holmes
The Iraqi election appears to have been a success and the market is reacting positively this morning. Although there were attacks and poor turnouts in some areas, it is estimated that as many as 60% of eligible voters cast their ballots. Given the threats that insurgents leveled at those who voted, that is quite impressive.
The most frequent comment I am hearing this morning from traders is that they felt that the media have given an incorrect view of what is really going on in Iraq. The impression of many was that Iraq was in such chaos and the insurgents so strong that holding an election would be nearly impossible. That apparently is not the case. The media have certainly given the impression that Iraq is a hopeless quagmire, but maybe it isn't that bad.
In any event, the markets like the results. Europe and Asia are trading up and crude oil is down as OPEC leaves quotas unchanged. In addition to the geopolitical events, we have some major merger-and-acquisition activity that is improving the market tone. If companies like Procter & Gamble (PG:NYSE) and SBC (SBC:NYSE) can find "values" in this market, maybe the rest of us can too.
The big question for us to contemplate this morning is whether this early strength will have legs. A strong open on Monday morning is practically an engraved invitation to sell into the strength. So far in 2005 we have only had six trading days where we closed higher than we opened. The smart move has been to sell the open. Will it be different this time?
What we need to do is watch carefully to see how the market deals with an early pullback. Are there dip buyers waiting to take advantage of lower prices or does selling beget more selling? Once an intraday trading range is established it is a little easier to set stops and gauge the strength of the market. The character of the market is determined by the way in which pullbacks and dips are treated by market participants. We have been in a "sell-the-strength" mode for a while and until we start seeing a "buy-the-dip" mentality assert itself, we will need to be cautious.
Keep in mind that we have a lot of news on the agenda this week. The FOMC interest rate decision and the jobs report are the most likely to be market movers. We also have quite a few earnings reports still due, but mostly from small companies.
The technical conditions of the markets are still precarious but improving. We are building a little base above recent lows that can support a move upward but if we fail to hold, the sellers are likely to really pound the market.
Although the open this morning is positive it isn't so euphoric that we have no choice but to sell into it. We should know within an hour or so how healthy this market is.
Gary B. Smith:
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Procter & Gamble (PG) teatas pärast neljapäevast börsipäeva, et ostab ära Gillette'i (G). Loe täpsemalt siin.
Gillette'i optsioonid eriti aktiivsed ei ole, kuid vahetult enne uudise saabumist, ostis keegi "juhuslikult" pea 2000 lepingut Gilette'i calle. 1.35 pealt kihutasid need järgmisel päeval $7 juurde. Päris hea tootlus! Igatahes hakkas seda "juhuslikku" võitu ka SEC kohe uurima.
Gillette veebruari 45 callide 3 päeva graafik:
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Gapping Up
NVEC +18% (agreement with Cypress results in MRAM samples), OSTK +4.2% (First Albany says OSTK is among the most compelling growth stories in the Internet), CREO +14% (to be bought by EK), GEPT +14% (gets FAA certification), CNLG +12% (receives military contracts), NOVN +10% (RBC upgrade following FDA's decision to reject the citizen petitions seeking to delay), DAL +8% (Merrill upgrade), AIRT +7.3% (reports DecQ), DCTH +6.4% (NCI reports encouraging results with Delcath therapy), MMC +5.8% (agrees to pay $850 mln to settle bid-rigging probe - Bloomberg), ELOS +5.3% (to file 510k application for marketing clearance of the VelaSmooth device), RSAS +3.4% (Raymond James upgrade), FRO +2.8%.... Stem cell stocks are strong: STEM +4.7%, ASTM +4.1%, VIAC +2.7%... Under $3: MSTRW +100%, SMD +23% (reports Q3), BIOM +7% (to present at conference).
Gapping Down
T -5.6% (board approves merger with SBC), WYE -5.4% (misses by $0.03, ex items; guides Y05 EPS below consensus), FLSH -3.5% (reports Q4). -
Apple (AAPL) uus 52-nädala tipp.
