Börsipäev 25. veebruar
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Rev Shark:
Don't Let Your Guard Down in This Market
2/25/05 8:32 AM ET"Beware of rashness, but with energy, and sleepless vigilance, go forward and give us victories."
-- Abraham Lincoln
The action yesterday did a nice job of taking the sting out of the painful selling we saw Tuesday. Volume picked up a little, breadth was good and semiconductors more than offset the weakness in Internet search. But this is not the time to act rashly or to forego a high level of vigilance. The most dangerous thing we can do at this point is to assume that the weak technical action earlier this week is of no further concern. The markets did a nice job of repairing some of the damage but we can't assume it is clear sailing from here.
One of the more worrisome signs yesterday was that cyclical and more defensive stocks continued to be leaders. Oils, steel, housing, farm equipment and the like were the biggest movers. It makes for some nice trading if you catch them but the best market conditions come when groups such as technology and financials are leading.
The best possible scenario for the bulls right now would be a rotation out of oils, energy and precious metals, and into technology and banking. The Nasdaq has been the laggard so far this year and if it can start to outperform the bulls will have some things to be optimistic about.
My biggest concern continues to be the supply of possible upside catalysts. With earnings season over, valuations mixed and the specter of higher interest rates floating about it may be difficult to find news that will bring in buyers. Cash inflows have been a major problem so far this year and now that the seasonally strong period is winding down, it is going to be tough to overcome.
The good news is that the indices were poised to break down after the decline Tuesday but they held and have bounced strongly. We aren't out of trouble yet but we have held where we needed to so far.
We have a positive start on the way. Economic news is coming up and it should be a very interesting battle in front of the weekend.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
SYNA +15% (confirms that its interface solutions are being used in new iPods), GENR +5.6% (announces positive preliminary data for Evizon), IDGR +4.8% (follows 8% move yesterday on strong earnings), APPX +4% (Abraxane clincal data), MAY +2.6% (co and Federated move closer to deal -- WSJ), ASKJ +2.4% (AmTech upgrade; positive TWP note), OSTK +2% (started with a Buy at Stanford; tgt $64; stock repurchase plan).... Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: MRVL +3.9%, MCDTA +3.8% (also Piper upgrade), KSS +2.4% (also Wm Blair upgrade), ORCI +15%, SUPG +3.3%, JMDT +1.2%.... Under $3: ANCC +12.3% (receives $1 mln in GSM/GPRS orders), HAXS +9%.
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: BCSI -8.8%, SRNA -4.9%, MCIP -3.6%, TKLC -3.5%.... Other News: TIVO -3.8% (Apple's commentary suggests co has no interest in acquiring TIVO - Smith Barney). -
Ardo, äkki mõni kiire comment/soovitus TKLC kohta?
