Börsipäev 2. märts
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Rev Shark:
Tech Bucks for Leadership Role
3/2/05 8:24 AM ET"To live is to change, and to be perfect is to have changed often."
-- John Henry Newman
Yesterday we saw some indications that the character of the market may be changing. Money rotated out of oils, steels and homebuilders and into technology, primarily semiconductors, and retailers. If the market is going to make an upward move these are the groups that will lead us to the promised land. The bulls hope that the Nasdaq will start outperforming relatively and provide market leadership.
That sounds like an attractive scenario but it may not be that easy to attain. First, semiconductors and many technology stocks simply do not have sufficiently attractive fundamentals to bring in the buyers. We saw last night how fragile some of these companies can be as Novellus (NVLS:Nasdaq) and several other technology companies offered up weak guidance. These stocks don't have the huge earnings numbers we see in oils and homebuilders, and investors are going to have difficulty embracing them, especially if we see more warnings.
In addition, we have some macroeconomic headwinds to contend with. Germany reported particularly bad unemployment numbers and there is concern about how robust the European economy is and the consequent impact on demand for U.S. products and services. The dollar is trading up this morning in response to the news.
In addition, we have Alan Greenspan testifying before Congress today and the market will be listening carefully for talk about inflation, interest rates and the dollar. The market has become increasingly tuned in to concerns about inflation and many market participants are convinced that we have not priced in those worries.
So we have a nascent sector rotation that can lead the market but it is extremely fragile and can easily reverse course if the news flow is not cooperative. We have to be very careful in anticipating a change in market leadership. If it happens and we catch it early it will pay off nicely but if fails to develop we need to be prepared to take quick defensive action.
The technical condition of the indices is good overall but we can't seem to generate the sort of volume we need to give us a higher level of confidence. The DJIA and S&P 500 are on the verge of a breakout but have not had sufficient life to push through and bring in the buyers and cause shorts to cover.
We have a shaky start this morning following some warnings last night, poor economic numbers in Europe and concerns about what Mr. Greenspan may say today. One good thing recently is that the market has been closing strong, so as long as that continues it will be a good sign.
No positions in stock mentioned
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Gapping Up
CYTO +12.5% (buying ahead of FDA panel review; CNBC mention this morning... see Briefing.com preview of event from yesterday), NKTR +7% (PFE and SFA announces that FDA has accepted for filing a new drug application for Exubera; NKTR receives Exubera royalties), PKTR +3.4% (Smith Barney upgrade), ASKJ +2.4% (chosen to power Lycos.com search)... Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: CDIC +5.6%, TTN +5.2% (also BB&T upgrade), AEOS +3.7%, IRM +3.6%, PSUN +2.3%.... Stem cell stocks are strong: VIAC +5.3% (started with an Outperform at CSFB; tgt $14), GERN +3.8% (co and Hong Kong's Biotech Research form alliance), ASTM +3.1%.... Under $3: FMTI +14% (European approval), ARTX +13.5% (guidance), LOUD +9.8% (reports Q4), SYNC +9.1% (teams with Sony Ericsson and Ingram Micro to provide mobility solution), EDGR +3.4%.
Gapping Down
Gapping Down on disappointing earnings/guidance: TIBX -17% (multiple downgrades), LEA -16% (also Morgan Stanley downgrade), LONG -16%, OPSW -11.4%, KTO -11% (also SunTrust downgrade), RMBS -10.6% (patent claims vs. Infineon dimissed), VRTY -10.6% (also RBC downgrade), NVLS -3.9%, COST -2.2%.... Other News: ESLR -3.2% (profit taking after 22% move yesterday), CME -3% (cut to Hold from Buy at Sandler O'Neil). -
Kas keegi võiks valgustada, mis CTIC optsioonidega toimub? Aktsia hind on 9.90, samas märtsi 10 straddle maksab 4.90. Lisaks siinjuures, et märtsi optsioonid aeguvad 17 päeva pärast. Volatiilsus on meeletu.
Olen lühike märtsi 5 putides. Kas ma istun pommi otsas? -
Märtsi alguses peaks tulema ravimidata, mis viib aktsiad kas $4-5 juurde või..$20-25 kanti.
sB -
Samas kui asi CTIC langeb 4-5 USD kanti, siis ega see put oluliselt rohkem maksa, sügaval rahas ajaväärtus puudub pea täiesti ja volatiilsus kukub ka ära
Ivolatility.com optsioonikalkulaatori andmetel on selle puti hind 5 päeva pärast alusvara hinna 5 USD ja volatiilsuse 100% juures 5 USD
100% on siis enamvähem see tase kust volatiilsus uudise eel ronima hakkas -
Love the balls!
sB -
Kas keegi oskab öelda millal täpselt tuleb CTIC-i ravimidata?
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CTICi volatiilsus 350%. supercool.
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Varsti tuleb selle volatiilsus lühikeseks müüa ;O
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stocker
Miks mitte, selline kõrge volatiilsus lubab moodustada lühikeste ja pikkade optsioonipositsioonide kombineerimise teel hea riski-tulu suhtega optsioonistrateegiaid ...
