Börsipäev 3. märts
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Rev Shark:
Engaging Battle of Rotation
3/3/05 8:46 AM ETLet a man who has to make his fortune in life remember this maxim: Attacking is the only secret. Dare and the world yields, or if it beats you sometimes, dare it again and you will succeed.
-- William M. Thackeray.
The bulls were on the attack yesterday, but the powerful forces of rising crude oil prices turned them back. The bulls were able to shake off a poor open caused by some nervousness in the semiconductor sector and by midday it looked like they were in position to breakout to new highs. But the bears unleashed their most powerful weapon, crude oil, and the bulls were thwarted once again.
The bulls may have lost the battle but they have not lost the war. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average still have very attractive technical patterns and are within one solid day of making new highs. The Nasdaq has shown signs that it may begin to outperform. Semiconductors and retailers have been acting better in recent days and could easily take a leadership role.
The key to the market right now is whether we see rotation out of more defensive groups -- such as oils, steels, metals and homebuilding -- and into semiconductors, retailers, technology and biotech. The primary driving force for such a rotation is the price of oil. If oil begins to falter, that will help drive the rotation. Yesterday was a particularly good example of the power that oil is exerting on this market right now. The rotation was under way, but as soon as oil began to rise, it reversed and we closed weak.
The choppiness we have been seeing in the market recently shows how difficult this battle is. Rotation is not easy to accomplish. The forces that are in place tend to stay in place and a shift to new leadership requires expending a substantial amount of energy.
Our job right now is to monitor the battle of rotation and to take advantage as soon a we feel we have an edge in determining who will be the victor. We will need to monitor the key groups, oil and semiconductors, and see if one can seize the momentum.
The current technical setup favors the bulls. They keep attacking and have been turned back, but with each run at the technical overhead, they weaken it and set the stage for a future victory.
While we wait for the weekly unemployment report, the bulls are perking up and preparing for battle. The Semiconductors Industry Association had some positive comments about the state of demand, which is helping the chips in the early going.
It certainly is going to be an interesting battle. The lines are clearly drawn and we are setup for a strong move. I'm leaning toward the bullish side but still have plenty of cash on the sidelines that I'm waiting to deploy once the situation becomes clearer.
Good luck and go get 'em.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
UCL +9.8% (considers bid for Unocal - WSJ), TASR +9.4% (Kerchoff lawsuit against co dismissed), DSTI +7.5% (unveils product for military and homeland security applications), NAPS +7.4% (raises revenue guidance), EDGR +7.2% (continues strong momentum; hires IR director), CDIC +7.1%, SANM +6.1% (Wells Fargo upgrade), WTSLA +5.8% (reports Feb sales), THE +5.5% (assumed with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $32), ESRX +5.1% (reports Q4), ANF +4.7% (strong Feb comps), KOSP +4.4% (reports Q4; guides higher), GTK +3.8% (chosen as supplier), AZN +3.7% (FDA approves a revised label for Crestor), SBUX +3.1% (reports Feb sales), BOOM +2.8%, TIF +2.5%.... Under $3: MBAY +21% (co and MSN Music offer audio downloads), DSCM +19% (Investment firm buys 10 mln shares; agrees not to sell for a year), IFUL +7.4% (reports Q4), MCEL +4.6%.
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: VISG -11% (also CE Unterberg downgrade), LSCP -7.8%, PETM -6.6% (also Harris Nesbitt downgrade), FHRX -5.4%, BBY -3.7%.... Other News: FRO -6.5% (JP Morgan starts fellow tanker names VLCCF and NAT with Underweights), CVC -5.8% (delays VOOM closing after ousting several board members; Bear Stearns downgrade), EZPW -3.4% (Payday names continue yesterday's plunge as analysts comment on new lending restrictions), NAT -2% (JP Morgan initiates with Underweight).... Stem cell stocks are weak: ASTM -2.9%, VIAC -2.8% (reports, subject of lawsuit), STEM -2.6%. -
Apple (AAPL) täna ligi 6% miinuses. Põhjuseks spekulatsioonid, et Apple võib olla Napsterile (NAPS) turuosa kaotanud. Nimelt kergitas Napster käibeprognoose $1 miljoni võrra.
Erinevalt turuosalistest, kes pool päeva müügipoolel on domineerinud, nimetavad aktsiale kõrgeid sihte seadnud analüütikud kuulujutte tühiseks. Needham&Co analüütik Charles Wolf, kes allamüümist mõttetuseks nimetas, tõi välja, et kui Napster kergitas oma prognoose 1 mln võrra, siis Apple näiteks müüb ainuüksi päevas 1,3 mln lugu! -
Jah, Napsteri uudise peale AAPL sellise löögi all ei tohiks olla. Pigem on see märk müügisurvest, AAPL tasub radaril hoida - kui see nõrkus peaks jätkuma, võib aktsia kogu tehnoloogiasektori kaasa tõmmata.
